Ohio State is set to host Penn State this weekend in a crucial Big Ten East battle.

Both teams enter this game undefeated and with College Football Playoff aspirations intact. Ohio State has won 6 consecutive games against the Nittany Lions, including a 44-31 victory in State College last season. This year’s meeting figures to have major implications on the race for a Big Ten Championship Game berth.

Let’s break down some betting trends, advanced stats and other information about these 2 teams:

Ohio State vs. Penn State Betting Lines

Spread: Ohio State -4.5 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/under 45.5 points (DraftKings)

Check out these sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s big game.

Betting trends to know for Ohio State

  • Ohio State is 3-2-1 against the spread this season
  • The under is 5-1 in Ohio State games so far this season
  • Ohio State is 6-3-1 against the spread in its last 10 games as a favorite of 6 points or less
  • Since the start of the 2003 season, Ohio State has been a home favorite of 6 points or less just 8 times. The Buckeyes are 3-5 against the spread in those contests.
  • Ohio State is 9-1 straight up and 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 games vs. Penn State
  • Ohio State is 7-2-1 against the spread in its last 10 home games vs. Big Ten opponents

Betting trends to know for Penn State

  • Penn State is 6-0 against the spread this season
  • The over is 4-2 in Penn State games so far this season
  • Penn State is 6-7 against the spread as a road underdog in the James Franklin era
    • Franklin is 3-1 against the spread as a road underdog in Columbus
  • Penn State is 12-9-1 against the spread as an underdog of 6 or fewer points in the James Franklin era
  • Penn State is 20-10 against the spread in its last 30 games vs. Big Ten opponents on the road

Ohio State’s record (both straight up and against the spread) against Penn State feels particularly notable. The Nittany Lions have consistently played Ohio State tougher than expected in the James Franklin era.

Penn State’s undefeated record ATS this season hasn’t come without a couple close calls. Penn State covered the number by 3 points or less vs. West Virginia, Illinois and Northwestern.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

  • Ohio State strength of schedule: 62nd
  • Penn State strength of schedule: 112th

 

  • Ohio State strength of record: 4th
  • Penn State strength of record: 11th

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • Ohio State rushing offense success rate: 45% (62nd percentile)
  • Penn State rushing defense success rate: 32% (96th percentile)

Penn State’s rushing defense has been dominant so far this season on a down-to-down basis. The raw numbers support that as well — Penn State has allowed just 2.4 yards per carry so far this season, which ranks third nationally, behind only James Madison and UCLA.

Ohio State’s running game has been a bit up-and-down this season. The Buckeyes are dealing with multiple injuries in the backfield, which could end up having a big impact on this game as well. If Penn State is going to win this game, limiting OSU’s run game is a must.

  • Penn State rushing offense success rate: 52% (91st percentile)
  • Ohio State rushing defense success rate: 35% (87th percentile)

There’s no clear edge for either team on this side of the ball.

Passing Success Rate

  • Ohio State passing offense success rate: 50% (89th percentile)
  • Penn State passing defense success rate: 22% (100th percentile)

Penn State’s defense is among the best in the country, especially vs. the pass. The Nittany Lions are allowing opposing offenses to be successful just 22% of the time, which leads the country. There’s a big contrast between that 22% number and Ohio State’s offensive success rate on passing plays of 50%. Something’s got to give.

Ohio State’s passing game has been a strength this season with Kyle McCord leading the way. McCord is averaging 9.7 yards per attempt, which ranks in the top 10 nationally. McCord has faced one other elite secondary this season in Notre Dame — he threw for 240 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions on 37 attempts.

  • Penn State passing offense success rate: 47% (72nd percentile)
  • Ohio State pass defense success rate: 40% (52nd percentile)

Ohio State’s secondary has out-performed its mediocre success rate to this point in the season. The Buckeyes’ pass defense efficiency rating ranks second in the Big Ten (behind only Penn State) despite its success rate allowed being in just the 52nd percentile nationally. That’s likely due to Ohio State not allowing many big plays — its defense is in the 97th percentile nationally in explosiveness allowed.

Drew Allar should be able to keep the chains moving at a respectable rate in this game. The true test will be whether or not he can find a few big plays in the passing game.

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass-breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • Ohio State offensive havoc rate: 16% (49th percentile)
  • Penn State defensive havoc rate: 31% (100th percentile)

Penn State’s defense has created havoc at a rate that’s laughably unsustainable so far this season. The 31% havoc rate will surely come down vs. the Buckeyes, who are much more ball-secure than many of Penn State’s opponents have been so far this season. Penn State is a Big Ten-best +10 in turnover margin so far this season.

Can Ohio State avoid a high number of havoc plays on this side of the ball? Whether or not they can could ultimately have the biggest impact on the outcome of this game.

  • Ohio State defensive havoc rate: 18% (70th percentile)
  • Penn State offensive havoc rate: 11% (94th percentile)

Penn State has done a great job of limiting havoc offensively, but it’s really only played one tough defense (Iowa) so far this season. The Buckeyes’ defense figures to be a major test for Penn State’s offense in a number of different areas.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • Ohio State points scored per opportunity: 4.74 (87th percentile)
  • Penn State points allowed per opportunity: 2.08 (99th percentile)

 

  • Penn State points scored per opportunity: 5.59 (100th percentile)
  • Ohio State points allowed per opportunity: 2.42 (95th percentile)

Both teams have been elite in this area offensively and defensively so far this season.

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • Ohio State offense: 10th
  • Ohio State defense: 9th
  • Ohio State special teams: 48th 

 

  • Penn State offense: 20th
  • Penn State defense: 1st
  • Penn State special teams: 32nd

ESPN SP+ 

  • Ohio State offense: 10th
  • Ohio State defense: 4th
  • Ohio State special teams: 17th 

 

  • Penn State offense: 24th
  • Penn State defense: 2nd
  • Penn State special teams: 101st

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via Sports Betting Dime’s college football betting database.