It blows my mind that A.J. Epenesa and Logan Brown are the exceptions, and not the rule.

Allow me to explain what I mean by that.

If you recall, Epenesa was the 5-star recruit from downstate Illinois who committed to Iowa’s 2017 class. He became the second-highest rated recruit to ever play for the Hawkeyes.

Brown, on the other hand, is the 5-star recruit from Michigan who committed to Wisconsin’s 2019 class. If he signs and stays at his current rating, he’ll be the highest-rated recruit to ever play for the Badgers in the 247sports rankings era (basically the 21st century).

To say that Brown and Epenesa are in the minority when it comes to blue-chip recruits would be an understatement. Wisconsin averages one 5-star recruit every five years while Iowa is at roughly one every three years. Iowa averages 0.69 top-100 recruits per class while Wisconsin is at 0.63, so on average, it’s considered a solid year if they get a single top-100 recruit.

It’s sort of the narrative for Iowa and Wisconsin — get the blue-collar kids from the Midwest and turn the 2- and 3-star kids into NFL players. Sounds simple enough, right?

What I don’t get is why. Why is this the accepted norm when the numbers say that shouldn’t be the case.

And by numbers, this is the stat that makes me question why more elite recruits don’t go to Iowa or Wisconsin:

I’ve been looking for a stat like that to confirm what I always believed. That is, Iowa and Wisconsin are exceptional at maximizing talent. And unlike Alabama, Clemson and LSU ahead of them, they’re left with far more 3-star recruits to maximize.

It doesn’t make a lot of sense, though. It isn’t like Iowa and Wisconsin are only turning a couple of under-recruited kids into NFL players while struggling to win games.

I mean, Wisconsin failed to have a winning record in the B1G once in the last 14 years and they missed the top 25 twice (one of those years the Badgers actually still went to the Rose Bowl). Iowa hasn’t been quite that successful, but averaging 8.25 wins is still a winning program.

Don’t give me this bit that 18-year-old kids wouldn’t want to come to Iowa City or Madison. Anyone who holds on to that take obviously that hasn’t ever been to Iowa City or Madison (both for a football game or for, um, “experiencing what downtown has to offer”). And if it’s a cold weather thing, explain how Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State still get blue-chip recruits left and right.

To me, this is more of a reflection about what goes into the decision-making process in recruiting.

Basically every blue-chip recruit wants to play in the NFL. They say they pick a school based on the place that they feel will give them the best chance to do so. But do they really look into the data? Do they really break down draft stats?

If they did, they’d see that 37 Iowa players and 37 Wisconsin players were drafted since 2009. They might also see that trumps programs like Texas A&M (26), Tennessee (24) and even Michigan (34). Yet still, those three programs consistently dominate Iowa and Wisconsin in the recruiting rankings.

Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe it’s just the fact that because Iowa and Wisconsin have this blue-collar reputation, and turning down an Ohio State or a Florida State in favor of one of those schools doesn’t sound splashy enough. Paul Chryst and Kirk Ferentz aren’t walking into living rooms flashing national championship rings. Shoot, they’re so un-flashy that they aren’t even on Twitter.

I know what Iowa fans are thinking. Ferentz’s old school approach of “no visits to other schools after committing to Iowa” surely scared off plenty of blue-chip recruits. That’s probably partially the answer to this question.

It didn’t scare off Epenesa, though. I remember asking him about that shortly after he committed in the middle of his junior year, and his answer then said it all.

“That’s just how some people do it,” Epenesa said told Saturday Tradition back in January of 2016. “But me personally, we’re going to stick with this one. I’m definitely going to be a Hawkeye. I’m not going to change that at all.”

Sure, Epenesa was technically a legacy recruit who grew up an Iowa fan. It’s still surprising, though, that with Iowa’s high rate of producing NFL talent, more 5-star recruits aren’t willing to abide by Ferentz’s atypical visit rule.

It should at least be appealing for blue-chip linemen to go play at Iowa or Wisconsin. They each had 10 offensive linemen in the last 10 drafts compared to eight from Ohio State, seven from LSU and two (!) from Clemson. It’s bizarre.

It’s a credit to the Iowa and Wisconsin coaching staffs that they produce such a high rate of NFL talent without having in-state recruiting grounds, too. That’s not really a reason why Iowa and Wisconsin don’t attract more blue-chip talent, though. Only 5 of 22 recruits in Iowa’s 2022 class were in-state compared to 4 of 20 for Wisconsin.

Recruiting is national. With spring/summer official visits, it’s more national than ever. I’ll be curious to see how much Iowa and Wisconsin use this to their advantage moving forward.

Between Brown and rising 4-star quarterback Graham Mertz, Wisconsin already has verbal pledges from a pair of top-100 recruits. It’s been since 2007 that Wisconsin signed multiple top-100 recruits, so this already has potential to be a historic year from that perspective. Roughly halfway through the 2019 cycle, Iowa is sitting at No. 29 in the 247sports class rankings. The Hawkeyes haven’t produced a top-30 class since 2011.

Maybe the recruiting numbers will start matching up with the NFL numbers. Perhaps five years from now, we’ll be talking about the continued rise of Iowa and Wisconsin when it comes to landing “NFL-potential talent.”

I use that term lightly. After all, Iowa and Wisconsin proved that they can do more with less than just about anyone.

Sooner or later, blue-chip recruits will catch on to that.