Over/Under: How I'd bet on every B1G team's projected win total

Now that the B1G schedule is out, Vegas has updated the over/under projections for each team in the conference. Even though I’m not much of a gambler (I would lose a lot of money), I’ll take my best shot at guessing whether teams will hit the over or under on the projected win total in 2020.

It should be noted that, while there are only eight games on the B1G regular season schedule, Vegas’s projections do include the Week 9 Champions Week game. Obviously, with those matchups being based on how teams finish in each division, we have no idea what those games will look like at this time.

Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s make some predictions.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Over/Under: 1.5 wins

My pick: Under

If this was a normal season, I might be tempted to take the over here, because Greg Schiano is a much better head coach than Chris Ash and he’s already brought in some talent via the transfer portal. But Schiano admitted that his team has not tackled or blocked since November 2019. That’s a big problem for a team that hasn’t won a B1G game in two seasons. The Scarlet Knights might be able to luck into a victory, but I don’t see a second win on the schedule. I feel pretty confident in hammering the under on this one.

Maryland Terrapins

Over/Under: 2.5 wins

My pick: Under

Year 2 of the Mike Locksley should look a lot better than his first season. Having Taulia Tagovailoa under center and 5-star wide receiver Rakim Jarrett on the field, Maryland should really see things open up offensively. But there are still some question marks on the offensive line and the defense needs to see a lot of improvement. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Terps did hit three wins this fall, but if I had to put money it, my guess is Maryland does not notch a third B1G win this season.

Purdue Boilermakers

Over/Under: 3.5 wins

My pick: Over

Purdue is welcoming in a new defensive coordinator and still has a relatively young team on both sides of the ball heading into the 2020 season, but the schedule is more than manageable for the Boilermakers. With so many young guys getting on the field last year and Purdue getting through more than half of its spring practices, it’s probably in a slightly better position than other programs. It’s not a lock, but the Boilers have a great chance to finish the season with at least four wins. If Rondale Moore opts back in, it’s probably as close to a guarantee as you could get.

Michigan State Spartans

Over/Under: 3.5 wins

My pick: Under

Timing could not have been any worse for Michigan State. Essentially a month after Mel Tucker was named the head coach, all athletic operations were forced to stop. The new Spartan coaches have had a limited amount of time getting to know the players and introducing a new offensive scheme. The good news for MSU is that Tucker did retain a good portion of the defensive staff, so there should be some continuity on that side of the ball. But it’s fair to assume this will be a rebuilding year in East Lansing — one with a lot of tallies in the loss column.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Over/Under: 3.5 wins

My pick: Over

The 2020 version of Illinois is Lovie Smith’s most experienced and probably his most talented since taking over in 2016. The program gained a lot of momentum last season with an upset win over Wisconsin, a comeback victory against Michigan State and a bowl appearance. Having a returning starter under center in Brandon Peters is also big for this team, which has had trouble with consistency at the position. Looking at the schedule for the Fighting Illini, it’s difficult to circle a “guaranteed win,” but with so much parity in the B1G West and a crossover game against Rutgers, it’s easy to see Illinois getting to at least 4-4 and having an opportunity for win No. 5 during Champions Week.

Northwestern Wildcats

Over/Under: 4 wins

My pick: Under

Last year was the worst Northwestern has experienced under Pat Fitzgerald. Knowing his track record, it’s really difficult to bet against the Wildcats bouncing back in 2020. But, with a lack of playmakers at wide receiver, losing top offensive lineman Rashawn Slater and welcoming in a new quarterback (Peyton Ramsey) and offensive coordinator (Mike Bajakian), I expect to see some growing pains in Evanston this fall. Getting to four wins may depend heavily on who the Wildcats are matched up against in Champions Week, but from the eight-game schedule, there may only be three wins for Fitzgerald’s club.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Over/Under: 5 wins

My pick: Push

For a team that prides itself on fundamentals, not having the time to work on those aspects of the game could prove to be an issue for the Hawkeyes this year. Not to mention Iowa will be ushering in a brand new quarterback to replace three-year starter Nate Stanley. Iowa still has more talent than most teams in the B1G West, especially along the offensive and defensive lines. It’s also stacked at wide receiver with Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Brandon Smith, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and others. Much like Northwestern, whether or not Iowa hits the over in the win category is probably dependent on who it faces on Dec. 19 from the B1G East.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Over/Under: 5 wins

My pick: Under

Nebraska is going to be a much better football team than it has been the last two seasons, there’s really not much question about that. But this boils down to a brutal schedule, in which the Huskers will play five B1G squads that were ranked in the preseason polls. Even in a best-case-scenario this year, Nebraska would finish with a push at 5-4. But I don’t think Scott Frost is able to get this team above the .500 mark in 2020. Then again, this team has taken a bunch of hits in the offseason and has something to prove. I wouldn’t completely count Nebraska out, but my money is on a four-win year.

Indiana Hoosiers

Over/Under: 5.5 wins

My pick: Under

It was an historic year in Indiana last year, hitting eight wins, climbing into the Associated Press rankings and coming so close to a victory in the Gator Bowl. This is probably the most-anticipated year in recent memory for the Hoosiers, and because of it, the 5.5 over/under is really at the perfect spot. IU has another year of experience, got bowl practices in for the first time in years and should be much better defensively than a season ago. But can they beat teams like Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin to get to six wins? I like Indiana’s 2020 squad, but I think they fall just short of 6 wins, so I’ll take the under.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Over/Under: 6.5 wins

My pick: Over

This is an opportunity for P.J. Fleck to prove the 2019 season wasn’t a flash in the pan. And with Tanner Morgan back at quarterback, a big-bodies, experienced offensive line and potentially Rashod Bateman opting back in, the Gophers’ offense should be able to put a lot of points on the scoreboard. The question becomes whether or not the Gophers will be able to keep high-powered offenses out of the end zone. Minnesota’s schedule isn’t easy by any stretch, but Fleck has instilled a strong culture in the Twin Cities. The Gophers have a legitimate shot to win the West in 2020.

Michigan Wolverines

Over/Under: 6.5 wins

My pick: Under

New quarterback. Inexperienced offensive line. Top receivers departed. There’s really too many question marks on the offensive side of the football for Michigan for me to put any faith in the Wolverines hitting a seven-win total. Jim Harbaugh will have his team ready to go this fall, and it’ll still be a formidable opponent every single week. But with games against Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota and Wisconsin on the schedule, finishing 7-2 seems very optimistic. If it happens, Harbaugh will be the B1G Coach of the Year at the end of the year.

Wisconsin Badgers

Over/Under: 7 wins

My pick: Push

It’s awfully hard to bet against the Badgers knowing they’re second residence is in Indianapolis. But finishing the year 8-1 seems pretty hopeful for a team competing in such a balanced B1G West. Like Minnesota, Wisconsin is one of the top challengers to the division championship in 2020, even though they’ll be replacing star running back Jonathan Taylor. Personally, I’m not so sure this Wisconsin team is as talented as it was last season, but it always finds a way to win football games. I’m happy with not selecting the over or under on this one.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Over/Under: 7.5 wins

My pick: Over

There’s no question Penn State is the biggest challenger to Ohio State in the B1G this year. The Nittany Lions are loaded at running back, have a returning starter under center in Sean Clifford and were able to swipe offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca away from Minnesota. Defensively, the Nittany Lions have plenty of talent along the defensive line, with stars like Shaka Toney and Jayson Oweh. Losing Micah Parsons, though, is a big deal. Having to play the Buckeyes in Week 2 is a tough task. Because of the circumstances and the loss of Parsons, I’m not sure PSU trumps OSU this year. But it’ll likely be their only loss of the season.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Over/Under: 8.5 wins

My pick: Over

Do you think Ohio State is going undefeated or not? That’s essentially what this boils down to. And, while I think Penn State does pose a serious challenge to the Buckeyes, having a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback in Justin Fields, a strong offensive line and some big-time stars coming back in the secondary and at linebacker defensively, the Buckeyes are equipped to run the table. Plus, a favorable schedule helps. Even though there’s no room for error, I’m comfortable betting on a 9-0 campaign from Ryan Day’s team.