Peterson: The ceiling for each Big Ten team in 2024
Spring football is over with, the spring portal is closed, and we’re about 3 months away from camp. The long-awaited debut of the new-look Big Ten is fast approaching, and the wait will be worth it.
With Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA joining the fold, we could very well see the title of “best conference in football” change hands for the first time in years. The Big Ten has 4 obvious College Football Playoff teams and several others with enough upside to be interesting.
Here’s how I view the regular season ceiling for each Big Ten team in 2024:
Illinois Fighting Illini
Coach Brett Bielema made changes to his defensive staff after the 2023 season, firing 2 assistants. Two more assistants left of their own accord, and there’s still an opening on staff following the resignation from recently hired defensive backs coach David Gibbs in early April. So the spring was an adjustment period, but 4 of the top 5 tacklers from last year’s team return. Where Bielema’s group really needs to grow is on the other side. Illinois has quarterback Luke Altmyer back and healthy after an injury knocked him from the lineup for the final 3 games of 2023. He threw 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season. The Illini averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last fall and gave up 40 sacks in 12 games — both marks that fell outside the FBS top 100. Before the season even begins, I’m going to consider games against Penn State (road), Michigan, and Oregon (road) as losses. Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan should be wins in the nonconference. To get back to a bowl game, Illinois would need to go 4-3 against the remaining schedule of Kansas, Nebraska (road), Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State, Rutgers (road), and Northwestern (road). That’s doable.
Ceiling: 6-6
Indiana Hoosiers
Consider it Year 0 for new coach Curt Cignetti, who inherits an Indiana team that was just dreadful a year ago and hit a hard reset. The offense mustered just 20 points a contest and will feature a new quarterback in 2024. Every scholarship back in the running back room is new. And just 2 of the 9 offensive linemen who played a snap last season are back. The Hoosiers will be fighting to stay above water in 2024, but building a foundation will probably be more important in Cignetti’s debut year anyway.
Ceiling: 4-8
Iowa Hawkeyes
Dread it, run from it, Iowa is still going to win 8 or 9 games. The Hawkeyes won 10 a year ago and now they are unshackled from the dead weight that was Brian Ferentz. Tim Lester takes over as Iowa’s new play-caller, replacing coach Kirk Ferentz’s son and bringing an end to what was a putrid era of offense in Iowa City. The defense is going to be fine so long as Phil Parker is calling the shots. What exactly can Lester do with this offense? Cade McNamara is the quarterback, so there’s a firm ceiling here, but there’s talent in the backfield and a loaded offensive line. Iowa should be 4-0 when it goes to Columbus to face Ohio State. After that game, it gets Washington, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all at home. There’s reason for hope in Iowa City.
Ceiling: 10-2
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Maryland Terrapins
Taulia Tagovailoa was one of the program’s all-time greats at quarterback. He threw for at least 3,000 yards in each of his final 3 seasons with the program. He threw 69 touchdown passes during that time frame. He completed north of 66% of his passes, orchestrated the offense, and led the team to 3 straight bowl appearances after 4 consecutive years without a bowl berth. His departure leaves a huge void in the middle of the offense. The Terps went through spring ball with MJ Morris and Billy Edwards Jr. battling for the job. Morris started 7 times in 2 years for NC State before transferring. Edwards joined the team in 2022 and was the Music City Bowl MVP last season. Both have upside, both carry some concerns. But Maryland has a more-than-manageable schedule.
Ceiling: 7-5
Michigan Wolverines
Jim Harbaugh is gone, along with Jesse Minter, JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum, and a number of people who made last year’s national championship season possible. Texas, USC, Oregon, and Ohio State are all on the schedule next season as well, and still this Michigan team has 10-win potential. That’s how talented the collective group is. In Minter’s place steps Wink Martindale, who has future top-5 picks Mason Graham and Will Johnson to build around on defense. I like Ernest Hausmann to make a jump at linebacker as well. Whoever wins the quarterback battle will have Donovan Edwards and Colston Loveland to lean on — a dynamite running back and a matchup-exploiting tight end. The floor is lower with Harbaugh gone, but the potential is still there for this group to make the Playoff.
Ceiling: 10-2
Michigan State Spartans
Jonathan Smith takes over a Michigan State program that all but imploded last season. He brought Aidan Chiles with him to be his quarterback, 1 piece in what was a top-20 transfer class. Michigan State’s schedule is pretty unique in 2024. There’s a strong chance the Spartans could open 3-1. With road games at Maryland and Boston College in the first 4 weeks, 2-2 is just as likely. Then the Spartans have consecutive games against Ohio State, Oregon (road), Iowa, and Michigan (road). MSU might be sitting at 2-6 when November rolls around, and yet a bowl game still wouldn’t be off the table. The closing stretch features Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, and Rutgers. Three of those 4 are at home. Smith didn’t post a winning record at Oregon State until his fourth year with the program, but this MSU team is probably a little further along. Chiles is the main source of optimism. But those first 4 weeks are going to be massively important.
Ceiling: 7-5
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota enters a strange year with PJ Fleck. After consecutive 9-win seasons, Minnesota finished just 3-6 in conference play last fall and had its worst offensive season since 2011. The quarterback position was a complete mess, prompting Fleck to bring in New Hampshire graduate transfer Max Brosmer. In 31 career starts at the FCS level, Brosmer threw for 8,000 yards and 69 touchdowns against 19 picks. Last year, he was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award as the FCS level’s top individual offensive player. Minnesota should have a deep and talented running back rotation as well. Another poor year and Fleck will be questioned — fair or not. But the Gophers have a chance to make noise. They should be 3-0 entering conference play. They’ll face Iowa, Michigan (road), USC, and UCLA (road) before a bye week. Neither of the L.A. schools looks nearly as formidable as they did a year ago, and with USC at home, Minnesota could maybe steal both games.
Ceiling: 8-4
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Matt Rhule accomplished the 2 most important things on his checklist for this offseason: find the answer at quarterback and retain Tony White. Nebraska swiped Dylan Raiola from Georgia at the buzzer and the legacy quarterback looks set to take control of the offense right away. Expectations for Raiola are through the roof after the spring, so managing these summer months will be crucial. As for White, Nebraska might only be getting 1 more year of him before a head coaching job comes his way. But if that 1 year results in the program’s first bowl appearance since 2016, it’ll be worth it. Nebraska has the goods on defense to make a bowl. Raiola’s level of play will determine how high this team can climb. Given the schedule, Nebraska could surprise some folks. There’s no reason for this team to be any worse than 4-1 when the calendar flips to October. Nebraska could very well be bowl-eligible by the time Ohio State week arrives. And given the current state of the 2 L.A. schools, a 2-2 record over the last 4 weeks of the regular season is perfectly doable.
Ceiling: 8-4
Northwestern Wildcats
Maybe Northwestern caught teams by surprise last year. In David Braun’s debut season, the Wildcats emerged from a horrific offseason to win 7 games, earn a bowl bid, and then beat Utah. It’s worth noting that Northwestern was actually outscored on the season and blown off the field both times it faced a ranked opponent. But the Wildcats closed with 4 straight wins to take some momentum into the offseason. Quarterback remains a major concern, though. The presumed starter exiting the spring, Brendan Sullivan, entered the transfer portal. This far into the offseason, Northwestern’s options aren’t good. Last year was a feel-good story for Braun’s group, and I’m skeptical they can have the same kind of success again.
Ceiling: 6-6
Ohio State Buckeyes
The ceiling for Ohio State is national championship. The ceiling for Ohio State, in all honesty, is 2022 Georgia-level dominance en route to a national championship. Will Howard is an excellent option at quarterback for a team that has this much talent around the position. And then on defense, Ohio State has the makings of a best-in-class unit. There are no gaps. There aren’t many holes. The top draft-eligible players ran it back to seek a title. The coaching staff added a top-5 offensive coordinator when it already had a top-5 defensive coordinator. The last 4 signing classes have ranked third, fourth, fourth, and second. Even the floor for this team is still high enough to reach the CFP.
Ceiling: 12-0
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Oregon Ducks
Oregon is the biggest immediate threat to Ohio State, which makes the Oct. 12 showdown in Eugene all the more exciting. The Ducks can certainly win that game. The same would probably still be true even if it was played in Columbus. Oregon has a wealth of talent on offense — a dynamic and experienced quarterback, a loaded receiver room, a deep running back room, a veteran tight end, and one of the sport’s top offensive lines. Last season, Oregon was good enough to be at the doorstep of the CFP but not quite good enough to break through. Issues in the secondary held the team back. That’s the area to watch early on. That being said, Oregon is in the same class as the Buckeyes; the floor is still a CFP bid.
Ceiling: 12-0
Penn State Nittany Lions
The more things change for James Franklin and Penn State, the more they stay the same. In State College resides a championship-level defense and a frustration-inducing offense. We’re entering the 2024 season once again waiting to see if Drew Allar can put the pieces together. If he can, Penn State can contend for the Big Ten title. If he can’t, the Nittany Lions will once again be a team that beats up on the weak and drops the season-defining games. Penn State averaged 42 points in its 10 regular-season wins last year; in the losses to Ohio State and Michigan, it averaged just 13.5 points. That has to change, or it’s time for a bigger conversation.
Ceiling: 11-1
Purdue Boilermakers
When you hemorrhage the kind of talent that Purdue has this offseason, you’re going to be in for a rude awakening when the season starts. The Boilermakers lost playmakers. Trench play looks like it’ll be solid in Ryan Walters’ second season, but quarterback Hudson Card lost his top 3 receivers on the offensive side of the ball and the defense saw the Big Ten’s leader in sacks last fall transfer out of the program. The schedule includes Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State. It’s also hard to know what the Sept. 21 trip to Corvallis will look like.
Ceiling: 4-8
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Consider me a big believer in Greg Schiano and Rutgers this upcoming season. Last year’s team went 7-6 with a bowl victory and key pieces return in 2024. Rutgers gave up just 21 points a game last fall, its fewest since the 2012 season when the team was co-Big East champions. Mohamed Toure returns after posting 9.5 tackles for loss, and he’s joined by safety Flip Dixon as well as a pair of edge rushers in Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey who combined to produce 62 quarterback pressures last season. The Big Ten’s leading rusher last fall, Kyle Monangai, also returns. He had 1,262 yards at 5.2 a carry last year. We’ll see if Rutgers can get better quarterback play, but there’s plenty to like here.
Ceiling: 8-4
UCLA Bruins
DeShaun Foster takes over for Chip Kelly as head coach. The glass-half-full approach could view the move as an injection of much-needed energy. Kelly wore on the fanbase, irritated the boosters, and hardly made the top of the Pac-12 sweat during his tenure at UCLA. Still, a coach stepping down from a Big Ten gig to take a coordinator position at another Big Ten school is telling. UCLA will struggle to compete in the Big Ten so long as USC can afford to price its L.A. peer out of retaining top assistants. And when departing players say they would prefer to go somewhere they can be developed, you know the new guy is starting with next to nothing from a culture standpoint. In Foster’s first season, it might not be about how many wins as much as how UCLA looks. UCLA will travel all over the country next season, with games in Honolulu, Baton Rouge, State College, Piscataway, and Seattle. All that travel will be hard, and the Bruins are in essence preparing to play 9 nonconference games as they adjust to their new league and learn new opponents. Foster has his work cut out for him.
Ceiling: 5-7
USC Trojans
Last season was the first time in Lincoln Riley’s head coaching career he failed to win at least 8 regular-season games. The Trojans went 7-5 after a 6-0 start to the year. Miller Moss provided some momentum heading into the offseason with his performance in the Holiday Bowl, but this team had so many questions that went beyond quarterback play. And we won’t have answers to any of them until the season starts. Is this a tougher team? Is there a better-coached team? Can the defense play more assignment-sound football? Can Riley settle on a receiver rotation and develop some rhythm? There’s little margin for error given what this 2024 schedule looks like. Still, Riley has talent on this team and on this defense.
Ceiling: 8-4
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Washington Huskies
Washington will look significantly different in 2024. The coaching staff is gone, replaced by Jedd Fisch and the bulk of his Arizona staff. The Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line is gone. The Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback is gone. The top 4 wideouts are gone. Eight of the top 13 tacklers are gone. And while Fisch was able to bring some talented players with him from Arizona, he wasn’t able to land the 2 biggest reasons for last year’s breakthrough — quarterback Noah Fifita and wideout Tetairoa McMillan. UW still has Will Rogers at quarterback, but it’s hard to know what this group is going to look like in the fall. They’re not in the top tier with Oregon. They’re not in that second tier with Michigan and Penn State. We’ll see how they react to schools like Iowa and Rutgers on the road. I just don’t think you’re going to see a ton of “gimme” games for UW, USC, and UCLA because of how much prep work is needed each week. None of them have the talent or the physicality that Oregon does to roll the ball out and dominate the teams perceived as lesser than.
Ceiling: 8-4
Wisconsin Badgers
The big addition this offseason was former Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Two years ago this time, Van Dyke was thought of as one of the top returning quarterbacks in college football. He threw for 2,931 yards and 25 touchdowns in 10 games during the 2021 season. Then came Mario Cristobal and Josh Gattis and the offense fell apart. Van Dyke played just 9 games in 2022, threw for 1,835 yards and 10 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. He was constantly under siege and missed time late in the year. He bounced back last season, but threw a career-high 12 interceptions. Now he’s in Madison with an outstanding one-two punch at tailback and a deep receiver room. Last season, Wisconsin averaged just 23.5 points a game, the worst output for a Badger offense in nearly 2 decades. With Alabama, USC, Penn State, and Oregon all on the 2024 schedule, Van Dyke has to have that unit operating at a higher level for Wisconsin to build upon Luke Fickell’s first season.
Ceiling: 8-4
