Predicting the 10 biggest upsets of the 2024 B1G season

Week 1 of the college football season is just about here! The preseason is finally wrapping up with depth charts getting released, predictions being placed and teams eyeballing a shot at the new 12-team version of the College Football Playoff. Heck, a few teams in other leagues are actually playing a Week 0 game Saturday.

At Tradition, we have recently completed another installment of our annual Crystal Ball series, predicting every game of the 2024 Big Ten season in the process! That means we have issued predictions on some of the top upsets of the college football season.

This piece will include what looks to be the 10 biggest upsets of the year as revealed in our Crystal Ball predictions. But first, let’s clarify something.

Some of the games on this list might not qualify as upsets in the traditional sense of a betting favorite falling to a betting underdog. Some might qualify more as revenge games, and we will not have the final betting numbers for some of these games until the first few weeks (or later) are in the books.

So, take the term “upset” with a grain of salt, but rest assured these will be must-see showdowns with surprises throughout the season.

10. Illinois over Minnesota (Nov. 2)

Minnesota has been a matchup of no issue for Illinois head coach Bret Bielema; he is 3-0 against the Gophers with the Illini. The 2023 contest required some last-minute heroics from John Paddock in a 27-26 thriller. The good news is Minnesota’s offensive playing style under PJ Fleck should still play into the hands of Illinois, regardless of the overall strength of the Illini secondary.

This game comes in Champaign, so it’s possible Illinois is technically the betting favorite by the time November rolls around, but I think the Gophers are the better team on paper entering the season. Look for Bielema’s chokehold on Fleck’s squad to continue with the Illini maintaining a slim shot at bowl eligibility.

9. Michigan State over Illinois (Nov. 16)

Week 12 will be a key moment for Jonathan Smith and his Spartans. Which moment? The one where Michigan State realizes without a shadow of a doubt that Smith and his staff were the right pieces to turn the program around. Some will scoff at that suggestion since the opponent is Illinois, but that’s where the Spartans have fallen after the end of Mel Tucker’s debacle. A road win at Illinois, after the tough stretch in the middle of the season, will provide much-needed momentum in Smith’s debut season. And a punch in the gut to Bielema’s 2024 campaign late in November.

8. Rutgers over Nebraska (Oct. 5)

The first weekend in October will bring an intriguing matchup between surprise teams in the B1G. Rutgers, at 3-1, will be off to a smooth start, and Matt Rhule’s Nebraska team is projected to be 5-0 entering this game by Tradition’s Crystal Ball. Unfortunately for the Huskers, that kind of start will lead to some overconfidence, particularly with a young QB going up against a tough defense. Greg Schiano knows how to get his teams to the finish line in close games while Nebraska is still learning that process. It will be a big road win for the Scarlet Knights.

7. Nebraska over Colorado (Sept. 7)

The first head-to-head matchup between Matt Rhule and Deion Sanders a season ago provided plenty of buildup, but it was not long before Colorado pulled away for a blowout win. However, the odds for 2024 have shifted favorably for the Huskers with FanDuel listing Nebraska at -6.5 for the Week 2 matchup. Considering the strength of Nebraska’s defense, the Huskers will be in a solid position if they can just avoid the 4 turnovers and -3 turnover margin from last year’s loss to Colorado.

We can say this for the majority of games, but nothing is a given for Nebraska until the program shows it can once again learn how to win close games. It’s unlikely the Huskers suddenly find something that leads to a blowout win over Colorado and Coach Prime. But I do think they take a big step when it comes to finishing off winnable games. Revenge will be sweet.

This is one of the non-traditional “upsets” on this list since Nebraska is a favorite at home (a distinction I expect to hold following Week 1). But considering Nebraska’s recent issues, we’ll leave this game on the list.

6. Indiana over Nebraska (Oct. 19)

Curt Cignetti would love to have the kind of momentum with Indiana that Matt Rhule currently has at this point next year. But that doesn’t mean Cignetti cannot pull off a surprise in this one. A couple of things favor the Hoosiers, including an overconfident and growing Nebraska team likely looking ahead on the schedule. Indiana also needs to deliver a couple of counter punches this season, and this feels like a good one.

Huskers fans might be wary of the fact that Nebraska makes 2 appearances as the losing team on this list, but that’s actually a good sign. Nebraska should be looking at a bowl game and will be the better team in many matchups. But I think that lends itself to the Huskers getting upset a couple of times along the way.

5. Washington over USC (Nov. 2)

USC has lost 3 of the past 4 to Washington and trips to Seattle have been consistently tricky. The 2024 Huskies will resemble the 2023 Huskies in name only; along with Kalen DeBoer moving to Alabama, 11 offensive starters and 9 defensive starters left the program. Still, new coach Jedd Fisch will have UW playing competitive ball thanks to one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country (Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers) and a potentially potent running game. Though outside the Big Ten title race, I like UW to pull a late-season upset in what will be USC’s seventh game in as many weeks.

4. Oregon over Ohio State (Oct. 12)

One of the most anticipated games of the season arrives with Oregon sitting at 5-0 and Ohio State sitting at 5-0. With both programs opening the season in the AP top 3, this will be one of the biggest games in Autzen Stadium history. Given the expanded Playoff, the stakes might not be do-or-die, but Oregon will certainly want to send a message to its new conference peers that “The Team Out West” can walk the walk. With 2.5 points for home-field advantage, SP+ would have this game as Oregon -0.6. That’s about where I am. If this game was in Columbus, Ohio State would win. Being in Eugene, I’ll take the Ducks in the first of 2 meetings.

FanDuel Sportsbook actually has Oregon -1.5 at home entering the season, so this is another game that may not meet the technical “upset” definition. But the Ducks as a B1G newcomer taking down expected top dog Ohio State should still fit the bill, even at home in Eugene.

3. Wisconsin over Iowa (Nov. 2)

Speaking of upsets, how about Wisconsin kickstarting the month of November with a signature win in the Heartland Trophy series? Historically speaking, the Iowa-Wisconsin rivalry is one of the most evenly matched with the Badgers holding a 49-46-2 edge. I expect the Hawkeyes to be the better team this season (and will get this game in Iowa City), but something about the historical nature of this game tells me the Badgers are due. Iowa has back-to-back wins over Wisconsin in 2022-23 but has not recorded more than 2 wins in a row in the series since 2002-05. Neither team has scored 30+ points in the game since 2017, so look for this to be all about the defenses.

2. Wisconsin over Alabama (Sept. 14)

The major story of the college football offseason has been the retirement of Nick Saban and the hiring of Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. However, anyone expecting a steep drop-off for the Crimson Tide could be in for a rude awakening with Alabama still checking in at No. 5 overall on ESPN’s Football Power Index. Alabama has a shot at another strong season, but do not discredit the impact of traveling on the road in nonconference play. Also, anyone who saw the Crimson Tide last season knows the offense was a trainwreck in the early portion of the season. Jalen Milroe might be a Heisman contender. But give me some early season struggles and a Badger upset as Alabama faces its first big test under DeBoer.

1. Michigan over Oregon (Nov. 2)

Oregon looks like a legit contender in the B1G this fall. The difference-maker in this game? I think it could be the travel impact, and I think we’ll see some truly weird results from some of the cross-country travel games this season. (Although Oregon’s 2007 trip to the Big House resulted in a 39-7 win for the Ducks.)

Dan Lanning is the real deal. His roster construction is the real deal. That doesn’t mean his Oregon program is suddenly head and shoulders above the elite programs in the B1G. It’s not going to be a surprise (or shame to existing B1G programs) if the Ducks win the league. But it’s not going to be an easy price to pay as we’ll soon find out.