Ready or not, the 12-team Playoff is here.

The start of the 12-team Playoff era means that the entire conversation about being in contention will shift. A more inclusive field doesn’t necessarily guarantee that we’re about to see more variety with national champs. For this discussion, we’re not focused on who’ll win a national championship; we’re just focused on who’ll play for one.

The goal for this series is to predict the first 12-team Playoff with 100% accuracy. It’s never been done before. I’d like to think I can become the first person in human history to do that.

Every day of this series, I’ll unveil 1 of my 12-team Playoff picks, starting with the No. 12 seed and working all the way down to the No. 1 seed. Remember these parameters with the seeding of the 12-team Playoff:

  • ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC champs get an automatic bid
  • The top-ranked Group of 5 conference champ also gets an automatic bid
  • The 7 remaining teams are selected and receive at-large bids
  • The 4 highest-ranked conference champs are seeded 1-4 with a first-round bye

Need any other clarifications? I think we’re good.

Let’s start with the No. 12 seed … Memphis.

Why the Playoff path exists

Well, the Playoff path exists for a Group of 5 team in ways that it didn’t during the 4-team Playoff era. Only 1 of the 40 teams that earned a spot in the 4-team Playoff came from the Group of 5 level, which was 2021 Cincinnati … which is now in the Big 12.

Cincinnati, UCF and Houston all left the Group of 5 behind for the Big 12, as did independent BYU. We also had SMU leave the AAC for the ACC, which isn’t confusing at all. That means a lot of those former Group of 5 elites aren’t eligible to earn that automatic G5 bid. ESPN’s preseason Top 25 didn’t have a single Group of 5 team.

Go figure that Boise State, which entered the 4-team Playoff era as the premier Group of 5 team, didn’t make the move up to a power conference. You could argue that the Broncos have a path to earn the Group of 5 spot, but I’m not sure that an internal coaching change will vault a 6-loss team into the Playoff.

Related: Looking to place a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!

Memphis once had an internal coaching change with the promotion of assistant Ryan Silverfield. But that was 5 years ago. He’s in Year 5 after Mike Norvell left for Florida State. Silverfield inherited a Memphis squad that earned the Group of 5’s New Year’s 6 bowl bid in 2018. In 2023, he led the Tigers to a 10-win season. The only losses were by 7 points to 11-win Mizzou in St. Louis, a blown 4th-quarter lead to 11-win Tulane and a 4-point loss to 11-win SMU.

A 10-win Memphis team that had nothing but respectable losses returns 70% of last year’s production (No. 23 in FBS) after not having anybody drafted. Some of that returning production came from the portal, where the Tigers brought in 30 new faces — they also lost 24 — 13 of whom came from a “Core 4” conference. That included the sneaky post-spring move of bringing in Tennessee leading tackler Elijah Herring to improve the middle of that defense.

But Memphis has a Playoff path because of the offensive continuity. The No. 6 scoring offense will return the ageless quarterback Seth Henigan (3,883 yards, 32 TDs) and 4 of his top 6 targets. That’s huge, as was the addition of South Carolina running back Mario Anderson. There’s no reason this shouldn’t be one of the best offenses in America again. Having the ability, or rather, the expectation to put up 40 every week will make Silverfield’s squad a brutal matchup in AAC play.

The goal isn’t to go undefeated (more on that in a second). It’s to go 12-1 with an AAC title. That feels very much in play for the Tigers, who will face Tulane with a new coach but will no longer have to get through SMU after the ACC move.

The potential roadblock

Believe it or not, the roadblock isn’t Florida State in Week 3. That’s the difference between the 12-team Playoff and the 4-team Playoff. In the 12-team Playoff, that matchup at FSU can actually give Memphis a chance to stay on the field with an elite program to perhaps give it a leg up on another 1-loss Group of 5 champ.

The roadblock is having to get through these 4 games without a loss:

  • at USF
  • at UTSA
  • at Tulane
  • AAC Championship

USF had a 6-win improvement last year and is No. 8 in percentage of returning production. UTSA has one of the top up-and-coming coaches in America in Jeff Traylor, who has 32 wins in the past 3 years (2 of which were in Conference-USA). Tulane has a ton of turnover with a new coaching staff but is still coming off consecutive 11-win seasons.

That’s tricky. The AAC lost some muscle last year with UCF, Cincinnati and Houston departing for the Big 12, but it’s still a conference with depth that could produce that Group of 5 Playoff participant on a yearly basis. Getting through those 4 games unbeaten could be a massive roadblock.

Related: Who will win it all in 2024? SDS has the latest betting odds for who’ll win the next national championship!

Then again, if Memphis shocks the world and beats FSU in the Norvell reunion, that changes everything. That could allow for a regular-season loss, or maybe even 2. Of course, Memphis would still need to win the AAC in a potential rematch against 1 of those 3 contenders.

Odds that they win a Playoff game

I’m gonna say it’s about 12%.

Why? Isn’t that remarkably low? Yes, but let’s remember what’s likely staring at a team like Memphis if it gets that 12-seed.

That first Playoff foe is likely a team that loses a Big Ten or SEC Championship. A 1-loss team like Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon or Texas could be on tap in that 5 vs. 12 matchup. That’s entirely different than facing one of those teams without a national championship on the table like we saw in those non-Playoff New Year’s 6 bowls. Instead, you’re giving one of those deep, well-coached teams extra rest to get healthy and game-plan for a matchup with national championship implications.

Will we see a Group of 5 team win a Playoff game? At some point, absolutely. Shoot, for all I know, Memphis will break through and do just that in 2024. It’s not a 0% chance.

You know, like it was for the non-Power 5 teams in the 4-team Playoff.

Predicting the Playoff will continue on Friday with No. 11 … Utah.