The difference between clarity and insanity can sometimes be wafer-thin.

On one hand, Week 9 of the 2024 college football season clarified some issues – like, for instance, Brian Kelly can’t win the big one at LSU any better than he could at Notre Dame. But the most recent slate of games also taught us that whatever wackiness is happening in Bloomington and Nashville cannot simply be written off by the randomness of chance.

Projecting the future, as we have made clear, is not an exact science. Although they’re making NIL millions, the kids who are the labor force behind these teams are a tad unpredictable at times.

That said, he goes yet another fearless 12-team Playoff projection entering Week 10!

First-round byes

No. 1 = Oregon Ducks (Last week: 1)

We guess it was a silly delusion, thinking Bret Bielema could muster enough road insanity to upend the top of this deal. Because it was all Ducks against No. 20 Illinois, as Dillon Gabriel tossed 3 TD passes to push Oregon to a yawner of a W. Gabriel is now 2nd all-time on the NCAA career passing yards list, but he was quick to point out postgame that “I’m chasing wins, dude.” Next up: Rapidly wilting Michigan in Ann Arbor.

No. 2 = Miami Hurricanes (LW: 2)

Winning state championships is such a high school thing, but Miami made sure to clinch its mythical state title in grand style Saturday – pulling away from the epic fail that is Florida State 36-14 at Hard Rock Stadium. You wouldn’t think beating a 1-7 team would be that consequential, but this is Hurricanes-Seminoles we are talking about here, and Mike Norvell’s bunch wanted to shock the world. Problem is, Miami feels more and more unshockable every week and is now the Belle of the ACC Ball.

No. 3 = Georgia Bulldogs (LW: 3)

Not only did Georgia not play in Week 9, it managed to get through the entire cycle without any major moving violations by Bulldogs players – something I would have dropped a few shekels on “Over 0.5” Fulmer Cup arrests. Kirby Smart’s crew stayed on its best behavior, and got well for an upcoming journey that includes Cocktails, Joey Freshwater and Orange Sherbet. Oh, and we guess Massachusetts and Georgia Tech should be quaking in their boots, too…

No. 4 = BYU Cougars (LW: 4)

Confession time: Putting the Cougs this high last week felt like a bit of a hire-wire attempt, what with roughly half the Big 12 still keeping up pretenses of a conference championship. But we loved what we saw with BYU’s dismissal of UCF at the Bounce House, especially given that Iowa State struggled with UCF in Ames the week prior. BYU is off this week and will be gearing up for a trippable game at Utah on Nov. 9.

Seeds 5-12

No. 5 (at-large) = Ohio State Buckeyes (LW: 5)

Week 9 was almost thrown into chaos at The Horseshoe when Nebraska was giving the Buckeyes absolute grief from Big Noon to the 59th minute. Fortunately for Ryan Day and his glorious beard, Dylan Raiola momentarily became color blind and threw to the red uniforms instead of the white ones with 1:16 to play – eliciting an exhale that could be heard in Pickerington. Play like that, and Penn State will provide plenty of unwanted exposure.

No. 6 (at-large) = Penn State Nittany Lions (LW: 6)

We have reached the moment of truth for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions in 2024. As witnessed above, Ohio State ain’t exactly world beaters right now, and getting the Buckeyes in Happy Valley is as good a break as it gets. Win Saturday, and there is a great shot Penn State vaults past Oregon into the Big Ten pole position. Lose, and the “Little Game James” commentary reaches an epic crescendo. Dear Saban, we love college football!

No. 7 (at-large) = Clemson Tigers (LW: 7)

We can only imagine what is going through Dabo Swinney’s head right now. He can’t crank up the ROY Bus metaphor now with the expanded Playoff system, yet he also can’t crow that Clemson is being underestimated because (as we have pointed out …), they did get drilled by Georgia. Dang these idle weeks. Clemson has 5 consecutive games to continue showing out or stumble and fall – and we like “continue showing out” by the narrowest of margins.

No. 8 (at-large) = Texas Longhorns (LW: 8)

Boy, did we have chaos on our minds all weekend – as Texas was visiting Vanderbilt and their new goalpost (previous post last seen at the bottom of the Cumberland River) to take on a Commodores team all frisky for a second dub against a top-5 team. And Vandy damn near did it, too, but the Longhorns survived and advanced to live another week. Shaky outings like that one, just a week after losing to Georgia, should signal concern to Longhorn Nation and renewed hope to Little Brother in College Station.

No. 9 (at-large) = Texas A&M Aggies (LW: 10)

We are beginning to feel like an Honorary Yell Leader here, though the ridiculous practice overalls are a no go. Aggieland is buzzing after last weekend’s comeback victory over LSU, and for good reason – as a goodly portion of the non-aTm observers figured LSU was going to close the deal. No one is sleeping on Texas A&M now, what with the remaining slate including 3 imminently winnable games before a closing clash with Big Brother at Kyle Field. Buckle up, and Gig ’em!

No. 10 (at-large) = Tennessee Volunteers (LW: 9)

Tennessee did nothing (literally) last weekend, yet moved down a notch simply because Texas A&M was that damn good against Brian Kelly’s bunch. It doesn’t help that Orange Sherbet simply does not match with any other color other than white – and even then it belongs in no one’s color wheel. Going to Athens in 3 weeks feels like a loss waiting to happen, and at the rate Vanderbilt is trending, the Commodores could beat the Vols by 30 in Nashville on Nov. 30. If this was a buy/sell decision, lots of day traders would consider selling.

No. 11 (at-large) = Notre Dame Fighting Irish (LW: Unranked)

Welcome back, Irish! We barely even remember that y’all completely lost the script back on Sept. 10 when Northern Illinois ventured into South Bend a made a mockery of you in front of Touchdown Jesus and the entire world. Since, Notre Dame has run the table – including a convincing 51-14 demoralization of No. 24 Navy last week – making us the most tenuous of believers once again. Of course, those helmets could be coated with pyrite (that’s fool’s gold, to all you sidewalk alums who stand no prayer of admittance to Notre Dame) instead of 24k Au.

No. 12 (automatic, Group of 5) = Boise State Broncos (LW: 12)

The Broncos shuffled up 2 ticks in the national rankings to No. 15, despite not exactly looking like world beaters at UNLV. Then again, there are airplanes full of people departing Sin City every weekend that have squandered more at the tables than Boise State was flirting with the 29-24 triumph against the Rebels. A win is a win is a win, and with it comes maintaining the inside track on the Mountain West and coveted top billing among Group of 5 programs. Still … we see you lurking out there, Army!

Dropped out: Iowa State Cyclones

How it would look …

1st-round byes: Oregon, Miami, Georgia, BYU

1st-round games:

  • No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State (winner plays No. 4 BYU)
  • No. 9 Texas A&M at No. 8 Texas (winner plays No. 1 Oregon)
  • No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Clemson (winner plays No. 2 Miami)
  • No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Penn State (winner plays No. 3 Georgia)

Quarterfinal games:

  • 12/5 winner vs. No. 4 BYU
  • 9/8 winner vs. No. 1 Oregon
  • 10/7 winner vs. No. 2 Miami
  • 11/6 winner vs. No. 3 Georgia

Semifinals:

  • 4 seed winner vs. 1 seed winner
  • 2 seed winner vs. 3 seed winner

Championship: Jan. 20, 2025 in Atlanta