Projecting the 12-team Playoff field entering Week 7
Being a predictor of things has always been a dicey business. Whether you’re a carny reading palms for fivers or you’re armed with all the analytics in the world, real life rarely plays itself out the way things are predicted.
Even more so in the realm of football, where the ball is literally designed to bounce funny, and they most definitely don’t play games on paper – they play them inside your television sets.
So when El Bossman asked your humble scribe to predict the 12-team College Football Playoff field (he used the word “project,” but it is really semantics …), said scribe took on the project with reluctance.
Because who really knows what any of these 12 teams are capable of? Didn’t last week’s slate of games alone tell you that college football is as unpredictable/unprojectable as ever?
That disclaimer said …
1st-round byes
No. 1 = Texas Longhorns
Figuring out who wins the SEC entering Week 7 feels like simultaneously tossing 12 balls into the air and catching 1. Who knows which one you’re going to get, right? But the Longhorns have the pole position for this, as the last team standing in the country’s best conference without a loss. Quinn Ewers coming back seamlessly to direct the Texas offense will be of top priority to stay there, as will winning the Red River Rivalry and a home tussle against Georgia – not to mention the conference title game in Atlanta.
No. 2 = Ohio State Buckeyes
For all the jib-jab about Ryan Day not being the guy everyone thinks he is in Columbus, all the Buckeyes continue to do is win. It certainly helps in 2024 that the rest of the Big 10 is, ahem, less than spectacular (see: Wolverines, Michigan and Nittany Lions, Penn State). There are also a vocal subset of Hoosiers fans delusional to think that they belong in this conversation – but alas, this ain’t basketball season. What it is = Ohio State’s conference to lose.
No. 3 = Miami Hurricanes
Being the best team in the ACC in 2024 is a little like being the tallest midget in the circus, but here the Hurricanes are. In the past 2 weeks alone, Miami had to survive not only a suspect last-second officiating overturn on a Virginia Tech Hail Mary but also mount a furious 4th-quarter comeback to edge Cal. Quarterback Cam Ward is flashing Heisman chops every week, but we have seen coach Mario Cristobal spit the proverbial bit before in Coral Gables. Hang on tight, Hurricanes Nation, and your first ACC championship awaits.
No. 4 = Texas Tech Red Raiders
I mean, someone from the Big 12 must to go here, right? The Red Raiders score a ton of points (236), give up a ton of points (194), and are tough as nails to beat in Lubbock. Texas Tech also has a cotton candy schedule ahead, facing only 1 current Top 25 team (No. 11 Iowa State in Ames on Nov. 2), and get Baylor and Colorado at home. Chalk tells us that BYU or Iowa State should be in this spot instead, but assigning confidence to either the Cougars or the Cyclones to win big games feels like a fool’s errand.
Seeds 5-12
No. 5 = Alabama Crimson Tide (at-large)
We would have written the Crimson Tide in at No. 1 all last week and through about 57 minutes of their game against Vanderbilt – figuring that the Commodores would finally realize they are the Commodores. Again, though, ball bounces funny. Alabama has questions on defense that require immediate addressing – but if the Tide can figure it out, Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams can generate enough offense to beat anyone in America.
No. 6 = Georgia Bulldogs (at-large)
This is where it starts getting tricky, projecting SEC teams beyond Texas. The final 30 minutes of the Alabama-Georgia classic should tell us that the Bulldogs should be at No. 5 and the Tide and No. 6. But the scoreboard, as always, is the final arbiter of such things. Should both teams win out, it could well come down to said result as to who gets seed No. 11 and who gets seed No. 12 at home. Carson Beck can do it all, but can Georgia’s team stay out of enough Fulmer Cup-related trouble to get to the finish line?
No. 7 = Penn State Nittany Lions (at-large)
James Franklin does not exactly coach fear into opponents’ thinking, but here is Penn State – a contender once again for the Big Ten. Winning games at USC and Wisconsin in the next 3 weeks will go a long way toward whether the Nittany Lions are contenders or pretenders. The truth, as with most things, likely falls somewhere in the middle. We are big fans of quarterback Drew Allar, and the Nittany Lions’ defense has been stout. Wait and see mode abounds outside Happy Valley.
No. 8 = Oregon Ducks (at-large)
Nike U. has only made 1 College Football Playoff appearance, losing to Ohio State in the 2014 title game. But the Ducks could headed to the expanded Playoff after a strong start. This weekend will be huge, as the No. 2-ranked Buckeyes visit Autzen Stadium on Saturday night. Road tests also loom later against Michigan and Wisconsin, as does Washington in the regular-season finale. QB Dillon Gabriel has been a stud with over 1,400 yards and 11 touchdown passes.
No. 9 = Ole Miss Rebels (at-large)
Had Kentucky not de-pantsed the Rebels a couple weeks ago in Oxford, we could we talking about Lane Kiffin for coach of the year and chalking Ole Miss into the SEC title game with a chance at an automatic bid and top-4 seed. Alas, the Wildcats exposed Kiffin’s squad on their home turf, and now the Rebels are solidly in the second tier of the conference. Still, downing 13th-ranked LSU this weekend in Baton Rouge would go a long way, as would a home win against No. 18 Oklahoma in 3 weeks. Jaxson Dart’s 2,100 passing yards and 13 touchdowns are impressive, and the Ole Miss defense (7.5 ppg) is formidable. They’ll be a tough out – if they get in.
No. 10 = Clemson Tigers (at-large)
It seems crazy, in the context of the 2024 college football season, that a team which only has a loss to then-No. 1 Georgia in the opener could be on the outside looking in of this whole thing. But such is the fate of Clemson in the current ACC – which theoretically could only land 1 more team in the expanded field than it did last season. The Tigers shouldn’t be terribly tested from here on out, only facing No. 22 Pitt on the road on Nov. 16. If Dabo Swinney’s squad can remain unblemished, and perhaps even turn in a couple blowouts along the way, they’ll earn just enough style points to make the cut.
No. 11 = LSU Tigers (at-large)
The opposite is in effect for LSU, as these Tigers will have to run the gantlet to be in consideration at the end of the regular season to overcome their opening loss to then-No. 23 USC. Ole Miss is first in Red Stick this weekend, and then consecutive games against No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 7 Alabama follow 2 weeks later. It could all come down to a home date against No. 18 Oklahoma on Nov. 30 – though it could also come down to LSU defense being less porous than its 21.6 ppg allowed.
No. 12 = Boise State Broncos (automatic, Group of 5)
Boise State would earn this spot as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion out of the Mountain West. The high-flying Broncos only have a narrow 37-34 road loss to No. 7 Oregon on Sept. 8. And are beating the brakes off of everyone else they have played thus far. Running back Ashton Jeanty has barreled his way to 1,031 yards and 16 touchdowns so far, and is up to +225 in some betting parlors to take home the Heisman Trophy.
How it would look …
First-round games:
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Alabama (winner plays No. 4 Texas Tech)
- No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Oregon (winner plays No. 1 Texas)
- No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Penn State (winner plays No. 2 Ohio State)
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Georgia (winner plays No. 3 Miami)
Quarterfinal games:
- 12/5 winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
- 9/8 winner vs. No. 1 Texas
- 10/7 winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
- 11/6 winner vs. No. 3 Miami
Semifinals:
- 4 seed winner vs. 1 seed winner
- 2 seed winner vs. 3 seed winner