Purdue vs. Illinois preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Purdue will have the opportunity to clinch the outright Big Ten title on Tuesday night against Illinois.

The Boilermakers are entering this contest with a 2-game lead over Illinois with just a couple of games remaining. A win would mean Purdue clinches the outright regular season title and the coveted No. 1 seed in the upcoming Big Ten Basketball Tournament.

Earlier this year, Purdue won a close game (83-78) over the Illini in West Lafayette. Let’s break down some of the key details of this matchup:

Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Odds

Spread: Illinois -1.5 (FanDuel)

Total: Over/Under 163.5 points (FanDuel)

Betting trends to know for Purdue

Purdue is…

15-12-2 against the spread
4-5 against the spread on the road
1-0 against the spread as an underdog
8-10 against the spread in Big Ten games

Betting trends to know for Illinois

Illinois is…

15-11-3 against the spread
7-8-2 against the spread in home games
11-10-2 against the spread as a favorite
10-7-1 against the spread in Big Ten games

3 notes for the game

Illinois hasn’t lost at home since mid-January

Illinois has not lost at home in nearly 2 months — its last home defeat was against Maryland back on Jan. 14. The Illini have 7 straight home games since that disappointing performance vs. the Terps. Six of those 7 wins have come by 8+ points.

It’s also worth noting that Illinois did not have forward Terrance Shannon Jr. available for that game against Maryland. Shannon was suspended for that game (and 5 others) after rape chargers were filed against him in Kansas. A court injunction allowed Shannon to be reinstated ahead of Illinois’ game against Rutgers on Jan. 21. Since returning to the lineup, Shannon is averaging 22.2 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.

While Illinois hasn’t lost at home in several weeks, Brad Underwood’s squad hasn’t faced anyone as good as Purdue, either. The Boilermakers currently sit at No. 3 in KenPom’s ratings and are almost certainly going to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The toughest opponent Illinois has faced during this 7-game home winning streak, per KenPom, is No. 34 Nebraska. The Illini needed overtime to overcome the Huskers in that game.

Zach Edey vs. Coleman Hawkins

This matchup will include a couple of elite college bigs in Zach Edey and Coleman Hawkins.

Edey is nearly a household name at this point as he appears to be cruising to his second consecutive Wooden Award. Hawkins is not as well-known nationally, but is having an excellent senior season with the Illini. He’s averaging a career-high 13.3 points per game and has also been impactful on the defensive end, averaging 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per contest.

Hawkins is much smaller than Edey (who isn’t?) but is physical and quick enough to compete with Edey in the post. In the last 2 years that Hawkins has been a starter, he’s faced Edey twice. Purdue won both games, but Edey was held to 27 points across those 2 contests. Hawkins also shoots the 3-ball well — nearly 40% this season on 4.7 attempts per game — which could force Edey to guard the perimeter more than he would prefer.

Purdue has been close to unstoppable offensively

Purdue’s offense is riding a major hot streak in March. The Boilermakers have produced an offensive rating of at least 120 in 3 consecutive games, according to BartTorvik. For the full season, Purdue has overtaken Alabama for the No. 1 spot in that site’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings as well.

Edey has been a big reason for Purdue’s late-season surge. Over the Boilermaker’s last 6 games, he’s averaging 27.3 points per game while shooting north of 60% from the field. He’s also averaging more than 13 free throw attempts per contest over that span. He was limited to 5 field goal attempts the last time Purdue faced Illinois, partially due to foul trouble. Now going on the road, Purdue will likely need another big game out of Edey in this matchup.

1 pick for this game

Zach Edey under 24.5 points (-105 on FanDuel). Illinois worked very hard to take Edey out of the game when these teams met earlier this year. I think the Illini have the bigs to be able to frustrate Edey in the post and turn him into more of a facilitator while limiting his field goal attempts. It’s also senior night for Illinois, so I’m expecting Hawkins and the rest of the Illini to play with a little extra edge.

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