Ranking B1G season opener opponents from easiest to toughest

It’s bad. Real bad.

If you haven’t seen the opening weekend slate for the B1G, don’t bother. It’ll only make you depressed. Don’t get me wrong. Everyone is excited that the season is starting, but goodness, there aren’t many move-the-needle matchups to kick off 2019 for the B1G.

I’ve already written about the subject, and why it’s a shame that we won’t get more Week 1 headliners from the conference. It’s the type of weekend that can only hurt the conference, and based on the way things have gone the last couple years when it comes to laying non-conference eggs, it wouldn’t be surprising if that happened again.

But let’s pretend that this is a loaded slate of B1G openers.

Here’s how I’d rank them based strictly on the strength of each opponent:

14. Howard vs. Maryland

A 4-win FCS team is the perfect way to kick things off. Howard, in case you forgot, kicked off the 2016 season with matchups against Maryland and Rutgers … and proceeded to get outscored 104-27. The Bison have their third coach in 4 seasons, which is a nice way of saying that Mike Locksley couldn’t have been lobbed an easier opening week softball.

13.  Idaho vs. Penn State

The Vandals faced 6 Power 5 squads in the Playoff era. It hasn’t gone well yet. They were outscored 361-94 (an average of 45 points) in those games. Coming off a 4-win season in the Big Sky, I wouldn’t bank on Idaho to make Penn State sweat the opener.

12. UMass vs. Rutgers

Remember Walt Bell? Certainly Maryland fans do. He was the offensive coordinator at Maryland who surprisingly got the same gig at Florida State. Now, he’s the head coach at UMass, where he’ll take over a program that won 4 games as an FBS independent last year. Even worse, Bell’s squad ranks No. 128 of 130 FBS teams in percentage of returning production.

11. South Dakota State vs. Minnesota

The Jackrabbits might be an FCS program, but they’re actually one of the best in that department. They have 3 consecutive top-6 finishes in FCS. I’m not sure that we’ll get a repeat of the 2016 Iowa-North Dakota State debacle, but it is worth noting that the last time the Jackrabbits faced a Power 5 team, they went down to TCU and hung 41 on Gary Patterson’s defense. Oh, and if it comes down to a last-second kick, SDSU will turn to Adam Vinatieri’s nephew.

10. South Alabama vs. Nebraska

South Alabama’s upset win of Mississippi State in the 2016 opener doesn’t seem like that long ago, but since that happened, the Jaguars posted a 7-17 mark against the Sun Belt. Coming off a 3-win season in the first year of the post-Joey Jones era, the Jaguars will have a new starting quarterback to try and jumpstart an offense that ranked No. 102 last year. It’ll be an uphill battle, but then again, Nebraska has been far from a lock in openers in recent memory.

9. Ball State vs. Indiana (in Indianapolis)

Riley Neal is spending his final year of eligibility at Vanderbilt, which means Ball State will turn to a new opening day starting quarterback for the first time since 2015. The Cardinals have been a doormat for essentially the last 5 years.

Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The good news is that the defense that let up 38 points to Indiana in Bloomington last year ranks No. 10 in percentage of returning production. The bad news is that Ball State hasn’t beat a Power 5 opponent since 2013.

8. Akron vs. Illinois

Another 4-win MAC team, Akron actually knows a thing or two about beating B1G teams. Just ask Northwestern about that. But the Zips have a brand new coaching staff and they rank No. 101 in percentage of returning production. Akron was an offensive struggle last year, which should bode well for Illinois avoiding a disastrous start to Year 4 of the Lovie Smith era.

7. Tulsa vs. Michigan State

Even though the program is coming off a 3-win season, Tulsa is getting a bit of a bump on this list for a couple reasons. For starters, the Golden Hurricane returns 75% of its overall production from last year, which includes standout linebacker Cooper Edmiston and prolific 1-2 punch Corey Taylor and Shamari Brooks. Tulsa also lost 5 of its games by single digits, including a 7-point loss to Texas. Given the way MSU started last year against Utah State, there’s no reason to look past Tulsa.

6. Miami (OH) vs. Iowa

I’m not saying it’s impossible for the Redhawks to take down Iowa, but I am saying it’s been 12 years since they beat a Power 5 team. It’s probably saying a lot about this list that a 6-win team from the MAC that has significant turnover on both sides of the ball is ranked sixth on this list. But I fully expect Kirk Ferentz to talk about the RedHawks like they’re Ohio State.

5. Florida Atlantic vs. Ohio State

The next stop on the Lane Train is Columbus, where we’ll see the Ohio State debut of Justin Fields. That’s not ideal for an FAU squad that was a defensive disaster last year, nor is the fact that it’ll have to replace not 1 but 2 NFL draft picks at running back. That includes the prolific Devin Singletary, who did most of the heavy lifting for Kiffin’s offense last year.

Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Expected starting quarterback Chris Robison is suspended indefinitely, though, which means Kiffin’s bag of tricks might be somewhat limited.

4. Middle Tennessee vs. Michigan

Here’s what I like about Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders usually get at least 3 Power 5 opponents on the schedule per year, and they’re better for it. Rick Stockstill’s squad won’t be intimidated playing at Michigan having played 3 SEC teams (including Georgia) on the road last year. Here’s what I don’t like about Middle Tennessee. Stockstill’s son, Brent, is finally out of eligibility after a prolific career as MTSU’s quarterback. As a result, the Blue Raiders are ranked No. 111 in returning offensive production. That’s not the makings for a stunner against Don Brown’s defense.

3. Purdue vs. Nevada

Nevada is much better than it was for that matchup in West Lafayette a few years ago, which was actually the second-to-last win of the Darrell Hazell era. But that’s all water under the bridge because both teams look vastly different. Nevada, coming off an 8-win season in Year 2 of the Jay Norvell era, has to find a new quarterback and a bunch of new contributors on defense. Meanwhile, Jeff Brohm will be testing the new faces with trick plays and a whole lot of Rondale Moore.

2. Wisconsin vs. USF

I thought Blake Barnett not being at 100% really spiraled the end of USF’s once-promising season. Now, though, USF will return nearly all of its offense, including a healthy Barnett. I’d expect Charlie Strong’s defense to be better than the way it finished 2018, too. Want a wild stat? USF is actually 4-0 against Power 5 teams in the Charlie Strong era. That’ll make for quite the test to start the season for Wisconsin down in Tampa.

1. Northwestern vs. Stanford

Hey, look at that! A Power 5 opponent? What’s that?! That’s not a dig at Northwestern, which usually schedules well in non-conference play, but rather the B1G’s weak opening slate. David Shaw’s program is coming off a roller coaster 9-win season with high expectations for veteran quarterback K.J. Costello. He’ll look to have a better showing than Kevin Hogan’s 6-point dud when Northwestern took down the Cardinal in Evanston back in the 2015 opener.

Even in a year in which Stanford lost the prolific Bryce Love, it’s still easily the toughest B1G opponent in Week 1.