Red zone performance will determine the outcome of Michigan-Penn State

The field at Beaver Stadium won’t look any different on Saturday when No. 19 Michigan strolls into Happy Valley for a showdown with No. 2 Penn State. The measurements will be standard, 100 yards long by 53 1/3 yards wide.

But not all yards are created equal, some carrying more importance than others. When the Wolverines and Nittany Lions line up across from each other on Saturday night in State College, only 120 of the 300 feet carry much significance.

For all of those that struggle with math, that’s 40 yards — don’t worry, I had to break to break out the calculator too. Everything from the 20-yard line in, on both sides of the field, will narrate the story.

If this game were to be played on paper, the offensive statistics would be more than enough evidence to suggest Penn State is going to win the war in the red zone. The Nittany Lions have made 27 trips inside the 20-yard line this season, scoring on 23 of those attempts. They’ve reached the end zone 19 times and settled for just four field goals. That’s a pretty effective measurement for the reigning B1G champs.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been grappling with red zone success all season long. A quick look at the percentages and one could get the impression that the maize and blue have been one of the most efficient red zone teams in college football this season, getting points on 17-of-18 trips. But those figures are deceptive.

The Wolverines have manifested just six touchdowns out of those trips, having to settle for field goals on 11 other opportunities. Some points are better than no points, but if Michigan has to rely on the leg of Quinn Nordin too often on Saturday in Happy Valley, it’s going to be eliminated from the B1G East race.

PSU red zone offense	Conversions	UM red zone offense	Conversions
Attempts	27	Attempts	18
Total Conversions	23 (85.2%)	Total Conversions	17 (94.4%)
Touchdowns	19 (70.4%)	Touchdowns	6 (33.3%)
Field Goals	4 (14.8%)	Field Goals	11 (61.1%)

At this point in the season, this isn’t just a nasty trend for Michigan, it’s somewhat of an identity. After scoring three touchdowns on all three red zone trips against Purdue at the end of September, it looked like maybe the Wolverines had found a remedy for those woes. But the last two weeks, they’ve reverted back to their old habits.

The reason for Penn State’s success in scoring position can be attributed to several factors, but in reality, it’s the number of playmakers and Joe Moorhead’s creativity that’s translated to touchdowns. Saquon Barkley and Trace Mcsorley each have four rushing touchdowns inside the red zone. Tight end Mike Gesicki has caught six passes inside the 20, with four of those resulting in scores.

Penn State has even utilized the versatility of backup quarterback Tommy Stevens to reach pay dirt on a few occasions.

Michigan doesn’t have those same weapons or offensive ingenuity. Jim Harbaugh hasn’t figured out a formula that works with any consistency. There’s been no “go-to” option that’s proven to be an effective weapon deep inside enemy territory.

Something has to change this week.

Converting in the red zone only grows in importance. Especially considering how stingy Penn State’s defense has been this season. Opponents have only slipped into scoring territory 10 times against the Nittany Lions. James Franklin’s defense has surrendered just four touchdowns.

There may not be very many opportunities for the Wolverines on Saturday, which is why finding the end zone on those few attempts becomes critical.

Michigan has to summon something, though. Maybe it requires filtering through the Purdue film again, trying to find out how it was able to convert on all three trips to the red zone. Or maybe it forces Harbaugh to dig a little deeper and add a few creative plays to the book this week.

A lot of factors matter in this week’s game between Michigan and Penn State, but nothing will be as important as how well the two teams perform inside the red zone. Those 40 yards are going to be the most important in Happy Valley.

Penn State has demonstrated the ability to finish drives and punch the pigskin across the goal line. Michigan is going to have to prove it can do the same.