3 Takeaways from the first Playoff poll of 2018
It happened.
The first Playoff poll of 2018 is out, and everyone has an opinion on it. Naturally, I’m one of those people.
Here were my takeaways from the first Playoff poll of the season:
1. The LSU-Michigan-Notre Dame spots
I had a feeling that the selection committee was going to reward LSU for that résumé and sure enough, it did. In case you missed it, we saw LSU come in at No. 3, followed by Notre Dame at No. 4 and Michigan at No. 5. That’s the result of playing a marquee non-conference game at a neutral site, and having a battle-tested start to the season.
So far, LSU has played games against 5 ranked opponents. Yes, that includes now-unranked Auburn and Miami. But you know what else LSU did? It beat a pair of current top-25 teams by double digits in the last 2 games. That matters. And obviously, LSU’s ranking at No. 3 is going to be dependent on how it fares against Alabama.
But for now, it seemed like the right call.
That’s not a knock on Michigan or Notre Dame, both of whom have quality wins. But we knew that in all likelihood, one-loss Michigan wasn’t somehow jumping undefeated Notre Dame when the Irish had the head-to-head advantage. Notre Dame has wins against 3 top-25 teams, but Michigan is the only one that’s still ranked. And unlike what LSU did to a team like Georgia, it wasn’t complete domination.
This doesn’t really change anything for Michigan. If the Wolverines win out, they’ll be in the field. What I think this could mean for Notre Dame is that by starting behind a team with a loss, the Irish don’t have a loss to give. At least not to control their own destiny.
But hey, I’m getting ahead of myself here.
2. Why Kentucky should be ahead of Ohio State…and is
I was surprised that the selection committee ranked Kentucky ahead of Ohio State. To be clear, I was surprised in a good way because I thought that was clearly the right move. Considering the preseason narratives/brands surrounding both teams, I thought with the same record, the Buckeyes would get the edge.
Go figure that a Kentucky team loaded with Ohio natives got the nod ahead of the Buckeyes. But this shows me that the selection committee actually valued the fact that the Wildcats have a top 5 strength of record while Ohio State has watched what looked like a difficult schedule get marginally weaker.
Think about this. Kentucky has double-digit wins against Florida and Mississippi State, both of whom are still ranked. Ohio State has a double-digit win against…zero ranked teams. The Buckeyes have the win at Penn State, but that was a nail-biter. Kentucky won by more against a Florida team that’s ranked higher than Penn State.
Oh yeah. And while losses are just A factor and not THE factor, Kentucky’s lone loss happened to a currently-ranked team on the road in overtime. Ohio State, as we know, got pummeled at unranked Purdue.
This really is just one of those interesting first poll wrinkles, though. Kentucky and Ohio State are both in “win the conference and we probably shouldn’t have to worry about anything” mode.
3. UCF starts at…wow
If you were worried about UCF stealing a Power 5 bid, I wouldn’t say that possibility was eliminated on Tuesday night, but wow. The Knights came in at No. 12, which I think is significant on multiple levels.
For starters, being ranked behind a 2-loss Florida team says a lot about how the selection committee values its “undefeated-ness.” It doesn’t. If it did, it wouldn’t be ranked 9 spots behind the next-ranked unbeaten. Three SEC East teams and 5 SEC teams overall were ranked ahead of the Knights. That shows you that the selection committee actually looked at the fact that UCF is sitting there with a combined opponents record of 17-34.
Oh, and this:
On teleconference, committee chair Rob Mullens notes that LSU has the most wins over +.500 teams (six), and that UCF is the only team in the Top 25 that doesn't have any.
— Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) October 30, 2018
So should UCF just be happy to be in the top 15?
I actually see both sides of the coin with UCF. I’m not going to argue that they should definitively be a top-10 team ahead of a 1-loss team, but I’m also not going to sit here and say that they should be at No. 15 or No. 18 like they were to start last year’s poll.
What I don’t get is the reaction that “it’s a win for UCF to be ranked at No. 12.” Really? How? Do you really think the selection committee is going to jump UCF, which currently doesn’t have a top-25 team remaining on its schedule, 8 spots by beating a bunch of unranked Group of 5 teams? That’s not a win.
A win on Tuesday night was being a Power 5 team, of which there were 23 (including Notre Dame) in the first poll. UCF is going to argue that its bias, but really, this feels like their opponents not being very good more than anything.
One last thing — don’t tweet “UCF” on a Tuesday night. I made that mistake.