
The 3 things that will decide the Iowa-Michigan showdown
The first of the Big Ten’s two marquee games of the weekend features Iowa playing in the Big House against Michigan.
It’s an intriguing matchup in many ways. For one, is Michigan (a 3.5-point favorite) already going to be eliminated from the Big Ten title and College Football Playoff races? It’s only Week 6, after all. And, just how good is this Iowa team? Can it contend with Wisconsin in the Big Ten West? The Hawkeyes won their annual rivalry game at Iowa State (not a great win at this point) and beat Rutgers (which already fired its head coach).
Here’s are three things that will determine who will come out on top in what is the best of the first wave of Saturday games:
1. The battle up front
Iowa’s offensive line is one of the best in the country, according to Pro Football Focus. And in Football Outsiders’ offensive line metrics, Iowa ranks among the top 15 in the country in line yards (10th), standard down line yards per carry (sixth), opportunity rate (13th), stuff rate (10th) and sack rate (first).
Why does this matter? Because Michigan’s defensive line got absolutely bullied at Wisconsin, with the Badgers opening hole after hole for Jonathan Taylor. The only metric that Michigan ranks in the top 50 in nationally is opportunity rate (26th). After playing such a soft schedule outside of the Wisconsin game, that’s not a good sign that those numbers aren’t better.
It’s no surprise Iowa is so good up front considering it boasts the player many consider to be the best offensive tackle prospect for the 2020 NFL Draft in Tristan Wirfs. The Hawkeyes are good across the board, though, with players like Landan Paulsen and Tyler Linderbaum also stepping up.
On the other side of the ball, Iowa also features one of the best edge rushing prospects in A.J. Epenesa. He hasn’t quite lived up to expectations yet this season, but he has the complete package of size, length and power that has NFL scouts excited about what he could become. Epenesa has just one sack and one tackle for loss after tallying 10.5 and 16.5, respectively, in those categories last year. But you also have to take into account the double teams he sees on a routine basis. It’s the same logic that applies to Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams: Just because the numbers aren’t there, doesn’t mean the impact isn’t there.
2. Nate Stanley vs. Shea Patterson
It’s a battle of two quarterbacks who have been on opposite trajectories since high school. Patterson was a 5-star recruit and ranked No. 1 in the 2016 quarterback class (and No. 4 overall), according to 247Sports. Stanley was the 37th-ranked quarterback in that same class and was ranked 531st overall. Even going into this season, Patterson was PFF’s 13th ranked quarterback in the country, with Stanley well behind at 51. Stanley is 36th in passer efficiency, while Patterson is 66th.
But now, who would you rather have? Stanley has been steady and is peaking as a senior with eight touchdowns and no interceptions – one of two Big Ten quarterbacks (Fields is the other) without a pick this season. He is completing a career-best 64.4 percent of his passes, is averaging a career-best 241.3 yards per game and a career-best 8.2 yards per attempt.
Patterson, meanwhile, is completing only 59.3 percent of his passes (down from 65.1 percent last season) and is on pace for fewer yards per attempt (8.0) and touchdown passes (six) than last season. He has struggled with ball security this season (he is tied for third in the country with five fumbles after having just six in the last two seasons combined), and that’s been a bit surprising. With five ranked teams still on the schedule, including elite defenses in Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State, Patterson is going to be hard-pressed to reach his numbers from last year. If Dylan McCaffrey was healthy, Patterson may not even be starting.
One reason for Stanley’s uptick in production is he finally has a competent wide receiver group. His two best pass catchers last year were both tight ends and caught half of his touchdown passes. This season, though, all of Stanley’s touchdown passes have gone to wideouts Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Brandon Smith, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Oliver Martin. Iowa tight ends have caught just six passes, and that’s not entirely surprising since the Hawkeyes just had two tight ends drafted in the first round and it takes time to develop that talent, but it’s still noteworthy.
We’re just a quarter of the way through the season, but the early returns suggest Stanley has been exactly what Iowa needs, and Patterson hasn’t been good enough. Let’s see if that changes Saturday.
3. Michigan’s offense
This is an interesting matchup if you view from the lens that it’s such a contrast in where these programs are at. Iowa knows exactly what it is; Michigan doesn’t seem to have a clue right now. And that starts primarily on offense.
After for some reason giving true freshman Zach Charbonnet 33 carries (!) against Army, he got just two carries against Wisconsin and five against Rutgers. This underscores the fact that the Wolverines have looked like they don’t know what they are doing on offense under new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, who got all the buzz in the offseason but has quickly turned into the scapegoat.
Michigan racked up 52 points against hapless Rutgers last week, but it will be up against the No. 25 defense in the country, according to ESPN’s defensive efficiency metric. Via The Athletic’s Max Olson: Iowa is fourth in the country in stop rate and eighth in forcing three-and-outs.
STOP RATE!
Wisconsin @BadgerFootball still in the No. 1 spot this week. And the top 4 are all Big Ten defenses.
Updated FBS standings: https://t.co/BRNDDGsoif pic.twitter.com/P3cBPbKUk0
— Max Olson (@max_olson) October 3, 2019
It’s a huge challenge for Michigan’s offense and a test to see how far it has come.