1. The B1G Story

From the moment the Big Ten rolled out the Flex Protect schedule, expansion became the next inevitable move.

The only variable is time. And the potential implosion of the Pac-12.

The Flex Protect schedule, conference officials say, allows the Big Ten more flexibility in the 2024 schedule and beyond. But how far beyond?

A year from now, when USC and UCLA are officially on the 2024 Big Ten letterhead, the future of the conference could already be on the way to radical change.

Understand this: the Big Ten won’t raid the Pac-12 until it’s abundantly clear the conference already has been mortally wounded. Those are the clear marching orders from the conference university presidents, a Big Ten athletic director told Saturday Tradition.

In other words, the Big Ten won’t be the reason the Pac-12 falls apart. But it will pick up pieces if/when it does.

That means Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff wields a heavy hand in the future of college sports. Can he find a television and/or streaming partner(s) to pay enough for a multi-year media rights deal that will hold together the current 10 members of the Pac-12?

Kliavkoff has blown through at least 2 soft deadlines without a specific deal for the Pac-12 presidents. Meanwhile, the Big 12 has its sights on the 4 corner schools (Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State).

Colorado AD Rick George says the university “will do what’s right for Colorado.” Arizona president Robert Robbins told Sports Illustrated he hopes a Pac-12 media rights deal “will be good enough to keep us together.”

Silent impatience or public hedging, it has been an uneasy summer in the Pac-12.

If the new media rights deal isn’t good enough — in Robbins’ words — to keep the Pac-12 together, the first to move will likely be Colorado. After that, it may look a whole lot like the free player movement orchestrated by the NCAA not so long ago.

That’s where the Big Ten comes into play.

2. TV market isn’t the answer

The dynamics and logistics of the USC and UCLA additions go far beyond football.

Travel problems aren’t limited to football, and more importantly, aren’t limited to just USC and UCLA. The rest of the Big Ten’s travel schedule in multiple sports — which was wildly overlooked by former commissioner Kevin Warren — will be impacted, too.

So will the academic schedules of the student athletes over all sports. The answer isn’t the Flex Protect schedule; it’s more schools on the West Coast.

The difference with expansion this time around — opposed to expansion of a decade ago — is television market. When the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland, the big draw was the New York City and Washington D.C./Northern Virginia television markets.

This time around, it’s all about properties and football potential. Television markets aren’t as important because of streaming platforms and viewership moving away from cable.

More than anything, it’s about the new Playoff that begins in 2024 — a 12-team format built to benefit those conferences who can qualify the most teams. The distribution specifics for the estimated $1.5 billion annual payout are stilling being negotiated, but it will likely be a system based on units.

The more teams in the Playoff (and the more wins), the more units (see: money) earned.

Translation: the Big Ten wants football-playing schools with a strong history and investment (facility and academic) in the sport. That leaves a specific group of schools on the radar.

3. The candidates

This group of potential expansion candidates begins with a caveat: the Pac-12 must be destabilized before the Big Ten makes a move, and that means 1 or more of the 4 corner schools have left for the Big 12.

It also means Notre Dame is standing with its independent status.

That leaves 5 logical potential additions for the Big Ten: Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California and Utah. If football prowess truly is driving this expansion — and why wouldn’t it? — Oregon, Utah and Washington are the 3 best options.

But that doesn’t mean academic standing won’t come into play, especially considering Stanford and Cal have been part of Big Ten expansion scenarios since Warren initially went after USC and UCLA — after it was clear Notre Dame wouldn’t join.

4. The breakdown

A football-specific look at the 5 candidates (in alphabetic order):

California

  • Last 20 years: 124-118.
  • Bowl record: 7-4 (no major bowls).
  • BCS/Playoff appearances: 0.
  • 10-win seasons: 2.
  • Final top 10 AP rankings: 1.

Oregon

  • Last 20 years: 184-71.
  • Bowl record: 9-10 (4-2 major bowls, 0-2 national championship games).
  • BCS/Playoff appearances: 2.
  • 10-win seasons: 11.
  • Final top 10 AP rankings: 6 (5 in the top 5).

Stanford

  • Last 20 years: 139-106.
  • Bowl record: 6-4 (3-2 in major bowls).
  • BCS/Playoff appearances: 0.
  • 10-win seasons: 6.
  • Final top 10 AP rankings: 4 (2 in top 5).

Utah

  • Last 20 years: 175-76.
  • Bowl record: 12-5 (2-2 in major bowls).
  • BCS/Playoff appearances: 0.
  • 10-win seasons: 9.
  • Final top 10 AP rankings: 3 (2 in top 5).

Washington

  • Last 20 years: 126-119.
  • Bowl record: 5-6 (0-3 in major bowls).
  • BCS/Playoff appearances: 1.
  • 10-win seasons: 4.
  • Final top 10 AP rankings: 2 (1 in top 5).

5. The Weekly 5

The 5 games that stress the Ohio State win total (10.5).

1. Nov. 25, at Michigan: East Division and Big Ten Championship Game on the line, and maybe more offseason stress for OSU coach Ryan Day.

2. Oct. 21, Penn State. Lions haven’t won in Columbus since 2011, but have the talent to do so in 2023.

3. Sept. 23, at Notre Dame. It’s early in the schedule, and ND will have the better quarterback (Sam Hartman). Maybe.

4. Oct. 28, at Wisconsin. The last 6 games between the teams in Madison have been decided by 1 possession.

5. Oct. 7, Maryland. The Terps are beating 1 of the 3 heavyweights in the East Division this season — and were up 3 midway through the 4th quarter in 2022.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Maryland RB Roman Hemby.

“He’s going to play in our league. He’s a Day 3 guy right now, but there’s rom for movement. Anyone who can catch the ball and pass protect like he can — and run a 4.4 40 — has a place in this league. He’s a 3rd down back, a 5-7 carries a game guy. Could be more. Interested to see his production in a money year.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: ranking the offensive line rooms.

1. Michigan: Transfer LT La’Darius Henderson (Arizona State) and C Drake Nugent (Stanford) strengthen the best line in the conference.

2. Penn State: LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu is the best lineman in college football, and Penn State is strong in the middle 3. Freshmen backups OT J’ven Williams and G Alex Birchmeier looked strong in spring practice.

3. Wisconsin: LT Jack Nelson is the strength of the line. Can sophomore former 5-star Nolan Rucci win the RT spot? Cincinnati transfer Jake Renfro solidifies the middle.

4. Illinois: LT Julian Pearl is terrific, and doesn’t get nearly enough national attention. Gs Isaiah Adams and Zy Crisler are road graders.

5. Ohio State: Transfer OT Josh Simmons (San Diego State) arrived to help on the right side. Buckeyes need career backup Josh Fryar to secure left tackle spot.

6. Minnesota: The middle 3 lacks starting experience, but OTs Aierontae Ersery and Quinn Carroll are solid is pass protection. A good sign for an offense that will throw downfield more in 2023.

7. Purdue: 3 starters who played in all 14 games are back, but the losses of 6th-year OT Eric Miller (transferred to Louisville) and Sione Finau (Arizona State) were unsettling. Can LT Mahamane Moussa or G Marcus Mbow fill leadership void?

8. Michigan State: The left side is solid with LT Brandon Baldwin and G JD Duplain, and C Nick Samac is solid. Guess where the run game is headed? The left side from center to left tackle.

9. Nebraska: C Ben Scott arrives from Arizona State, and will give the Huskers a force in the middle. RT Bryce Benhart made big strides in the spring, and could be among the best tackles in the Big Ten.

10. Iowa: Among the worst in the Big Ten over the last 2 seasons, Iowa will be better in 2023. Transfers OT Daijon Parker (Saginaw Valley State) and G Rusty Feth (Miami, OH) will help, but Iowa needs C Logan Jones to lead the unit.

11. Maryland: 3 players were selected in the NFL Draft, 2 other players transferred to Power 5 schools. That leaves the Terps with potential strength at LT (Delmar Glaze), and plenty of questions everywhere else.

12. Indiana: Transfers Gs Max Longman (UMass) and Noah Bolticoff (TCU) will press for time, but Hoosiers need big seasons from untested OT Carter Smith and redshirt senior OT Matthew Bedford, who has 28 career starts but missed the last 11 games of 2022 (knee injury).

13. Northwestern: 4 new starters, and Josh Priebe moves to LT to replace the best tackle in school history. By the end of the season, freshmen Dylan Senda, Anthony Birsa and Jordan Knox could all have won jobs.

14. Rutgers: Former walk-on OT Hollin Pierce is a fantastic story — and that’s where it ends.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Every time I hear about Big Ten expansion, my colleagues all bring up the American Association of Universities, and that whoever the Big Ten adds must be an AAU member. Is that a legitimate deal breaker? — Dalton Thompson, Rockford, Ill.

Dalton:

It’s absolutely important, but it’s not a deal breaker because the only schools they’ll consider this time around are AAU schools. The aforementioned 5 schools plus Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Notre Dame are all AAU members.

Numerous industry sources I’ve spoken to say any expansion is based on eliminating travel issues that impact athletics and academics for all 16 universities — not just USC and UCLA.

Here’s another thing to think about: should the 7 ACC schools interested in leaving the league find a way to break the Grant of Rights deal between the schools and the conference, expansion could include the Big Ten and SEC going after the same ACC schools.

North Carolina, Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pittsburgh are all AAU members.

9. Numbers

27. Devin Mockobee was a 2-star recruit in 2021, and walked on at Purdue. He was also 32 yards shy of 1,000 rushing yards in his first season of college football (he redshirted in 2021).

One of the best stories in the Big Ten in 2022 can no longer be overlooked. Mockobee had 27 plays of 10+ yards in 2022, averaged 5 yards a carry and had 9 TDs.

He’ll only be more productive in Year 2 in OC Graham Harrell’s offense.

10. Quote to note

Illinois coach Bret Bielema: “Depth at certain positions is good enough. At others, it’s still scary thin. We don’t have the roster yet that I fully want, but we’re getting there. We’re closer now than we’ve ever been.”