The B1G 10: If all goes well, you won't recognize Penn State's offense next year

1. The B1G Story

James Franklin has always had the non-negotiables, the culture off the field and structure on it that he has created at Penn State.

You don’t veer from them, you don’t change course when the road gets rough.

But now, by happenstance or circumstance, we’ve reached an inflection point because 11 wins isn’t good enough anymore.

The fabric of the program that has led Penn State to the whiff of what could be in Franklin’s 10 seasons — with the final step just out of reach — needs tweaking.

After 11-win seasons in 4 of the past 8 years, Franklin is willing to change, everyone.

With the structure of the offense under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, that is.

“We’re all very aware of, and trust me, I’m very aware of, what (Kotelnicki’s) strength is,” Franklin said last month. “Explosion plays.”

Translation: Change is good. In explosion play doses, of course.

When Franklin went searching for an offensive coordinator after firing Mike Yurcich before the end of last season, there was little doubt of his priority: Don’t waste uber-talented quarterback Drew Allar.

This may be Allar’s last season in State College, and he’s surrounded by a talented group of skill players and a strong offensive line. Football at the elite levels (college and NFL) is about offense and scoring points.

That meant finding the offense, the system and the coach/teacher, that can help Allar reach his ceiling. Because the golden rule of football is clear and unambiguous: The better the quarterback, the better the team.

Franklin saw what Kotelnicki did at Kansas, how the offense was multiple and stressed defenses vertically and laterally — and most important, how it didn’t matter who was playing quarterback.

Jalon Daniels was the most dangerous player in the Big 12 going into last season, but a back injury derailed a majority of his year. Then Jason Bean took over, and the offense kept rolling.

Only 4 teams in America completed more 40+ yard passes than the Jayhawks, who had 18. One hundred — 100! — completed more such passes than Penn State, which had just 6.

The Jayhawks ran the ball to throw off play-action, which may as well be Franklin’s love language. KU ran the ball 62 percent of the time, and — here’s the key — Bean averaged 10.7 yards per attempt.

Penn State last season ran the ball 55% of the time, and Allar averaged 6.8 yards per attempt.

Now you see why Franklin is loosening his grip a bit on the non-negotiables.

2. Inside the structure

When Franklin initially spoke with Kotelnicki, he made it clear that his priority is protecting the football.

Penn State was No. 2 in the nation last season in turnover ratio, in part, because the offense turned over the ball only 8 times in 13 games. Allar’s TD/INT ratio was an impressive 25/2.

And while the offense averaged 31.2 points in Big Ten games, it scored 27 total points in the 2 games that mattered most: losses to Ohio State and Michigan — the 2 teams that have kept Penn State from moving beyond 11 wins and reaching an elite level.

Penn State had 240 total yards against Ohio State, and averaged 3.5 yards per play. It had 238 yards against Michigan, and averaged 4.1 yards per play.

In the other 11 games of 2023, Penn State averaged 429 yards per game, and 5.9 yards per play.

So while protecting the ball is important, there comes a point where the reward is worth the risk. Where “11” and “12” personnel with Penn State’s deep tight end room may need to evolve into a “10” personnel (no tight ends, 4 wide receivers) spread.

That’s not saying tight ends can’t provide explosion plays. KU tight end Mason Fairchild averaged 16.7 yards per catch, but he did so because Kotelnicki used formation and motion to free him up and/or force mismatches.

Again, it’s all about structure and how you attack a defense. That’s what made the KU and Buffalo offenses so dangerous under coach Lance Leipold and Kotelnicki, and what led to all of those NCAA lower division national titles at Wisconsin-Whitewater.

Kotelnicki didn’t leave Leipold — after 11 years as his offensive coordinator — without assurances from Franklin that the offense was his, and his alone.

3. Change is good The Epilogue

Former 5-star WR Julian Fleming has arrived from Ohio State. OT Nolan Rucci has arrived from Wisconsin.

The tight end room is still deep, and WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith had a breakout season in 2023. Then there’s RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen — all key additions and dangerous pieces for a quarterback who played well in 2023, but could make significant improvement in 2024.

You’re doing something right if you throw 2 interceptions 389 attempts, and you throw a touchdown pass every 9 attempts. But remember this: Penn State last season had 6 pass plays of 40-plus yards.

Kansas had 18.

Dial it back a bit: Penn State had just 30 completions of 20+ yards. Kansas had 52.

That, more than anything, is where the non-negotiables now live. If Penn State gets 3 or 5 or 7 of those 22 extra 20-plus yards explosion plays, maybe the 1-possession loss to Ohio State doesn’t happen.

Or the 9-point loss to Michigan — where Penn State had 47 total yards in the first 5 possession of the 2nd half (before a late touchdown drive made it respectable) — wouldn’t have been so punishing.

It was a simple decision, really. The non-negotiables don’t look so intimidating when you look at things through the lens of growth.

Your quarterback needs help. Your team can grow beyond what it has been.

Being smart with the football and smart in your structure can happen at the same time.

“What you’re trying to do is marry those two things,” Franklin said. “That’s where I think it made sense to (Kotelnicki) and made sense to us.”

4. What it takes

Matt Rhule says Nebraska needs 3 quarterbacks ready to play in 2024. Maybe 4.

That likely includes last year’s starter Heinrich Haarberg, and freshmen Dylan Raiola and Danny Kaelin. Specifically, those 3 need first-team repetitions this spring.

They need to manage the offense, and perform at a high level in situational down and distance. That’s all on field and doesn’t take into account where the job can also be won.

“Am I going to follow a quarterback that doesn’t win all the (offseason) drills?” Rhule said. “That’s not out there throwing at 6 am? That’s not out there on weekends? I’m not following that guy.”

You better believe that was a direct statement for Raiola, the 5-star recruit who is — by a long way — the most talented quarterback on the roster. But that doesn’t mean he’s the most respected.

5. The Weekly 5

The top 5 odds for Big Ten players to win the 2024 Heisman Trophy, according to FanDuel.

1. QB Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: (+1000)

2. QB Will Howard, Ohio State: (+1200)

3. QB Miller Moss, USC (+3000)

4. QB Drew Allar, Penn State (+4000)

5. QB Jayden Maiava, USC (+5000)

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible Big Ten player. This week: Michigan LB Junior Colson.

“He does a lot of good things. He’s very fluid in pass coverage, and can bring a pop in run support. A smart, instinctive player who would fit perfectly in a scheme that emphasizes linebackers in (pass) coverage. I see him in a Tampa 2 scheme, where you’re taking advantage of his ability to run and mirror and defend underneath. You could get him in the 3rd round, stick him at “Sam” (linebacker) and he’ll get to a 2nd contract.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: projected 2024 regular season win totals, courtesy of FanDuel.

1. Oregon: 10.5. Ducks play both Ohio State and Michigan (Ann Arbor), and likely need a win in either of those games to hit the over.

2. Ohio State: 10.5. There’s a sense of the unknown with Howard, who has 67 career TDs (19 rush), but may have lost the starting job to Avery Johnson had he stayed at K-State.

Attention Ohio residents! You can bet on the Buckeyes’ win total by signing up with one of Saturday Tradition’s top-ranked Ohio sportsbooks. Multiple apps are currently offering new-user bonuses!

3. Penn State: 9.5. With all of the aforementioned uncertainty this spring, it’s still a fortunate schedule that should lead to the over — and a spot in the Playoff.

4. Michigan: 9.5. There’s way too much unknown — new staff, significant personnel losses, new QB, non-conference game against Texas — to not embrace the under.

5. Iowa: 7.5. For those believing QB Cade McNamara can be a difference-maker: Iowa lost 31-0 at Penn State in 2023, and the offense had 76 total yards (42 passing). Can new OC Tim Lester rebuild McNamara?

6. Washington: 7.5. In addition to losing its head coach, the roster was gutted by NFL and transfer portal departures. New QB Will Rogers didn’t play well in 2023. And the Huskies could still hit the over with a manageable schedule.

7. USC: 7.5. Lincoln Riley will find a quarterback (Miller Moss or UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava), and he’ll be efficient. But if the defense doesn’t work (again), a difficult schedule makes the under a reality.

8. Wisconsin: 6.5. An odd number, for sure — but more than likely based on a lack of confidence in transfer QB Tyler Van Dyke despite a relatively manageable schedule.

9. Nebraska: 7.5. A couple of things: I like Matt Rhule in Year 2 of rebuilds, and the schedule sets up for 7 wins to start the season (really, it does). If QB Dylan Raiola is the real deal, this team will win 10 games.

10. Illinois: 5.5. Still uncertainty at quarterback, and the Illini are 6-7 in 1-possession games over the last 2 seasons. Then there’s this: road games at Nebraska, Penn State and Oregon.

11. Minnesota: 4.5. Forget about a new QB (New Hampshire’s Max Brosmer) and defensive coordinator (Corey Hetherman). PJ Fleck, in 11 non-COVID seasons, has won less than 4.5 games once — his first season as a head coach in 2013 (Western Michigan).

12. Northwestern: 5.5. The schedule is a heavy lift, and there’s still uncertainty with the Wildcats’ ability to consistently move the ball and score points (22 ppg., in Big Ten games in 2023).

13. Maryland: 7.5. The first half of the schedule is wildly favorable, and we could see more of what Maryland has become under coach Mike Locksley: success early, struggle late — and fighting for an 8th win over the final month of the season.

14. Michigan State: 5.5. if QB Aidan Chiles develops quickly, Spartans are a lock for the over. Even with games against Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan.

15. Rutgers: 5.5. Avoiding Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan is big, but doesn’t necessarily translate to hitting the over. Too many issues on offense, and a nonconference road game at Virginia Tech, and 2 long trips to Nebraska and USC.

16. UCLA: 5.5. There are pieces in place structurally that could allow the Bruins to reach 6 wins, but it’s a heavy lift. The schedule is brutal (at LSU, at Penn State, at Washington, Oregon).

17. Indiana: 5.5. Favorable non-con schedule, including 3 50-50 games in Bloomington (Maryland, Nebraska, Purdue), give Hoosiers a chance to reach the over.

18. Purdue: 4.5. The most difficult schedule in the Big Ten, and it’s not close — especially with Notre Dame rotating back on the schedule and games against Oregon, Penn State and at Ohio State.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Why can’t UCLA win big? If Chip Kelly can’t win there, who can? — Steven Donald, San Diego.

Steven:

First and foremost, I wouldn’t use Kelly as the be-all, end-all for the how and why it can’t work. The Kelly you’re thinking about is the Kelly of more than a decade ago, when his unique spread option offense was nearly unstoppable.

Now everyone runs a version of it — and it’s no longer rare or deceptive. It’s just ugly when not blocked properly.

That brings me back to the underlying reason why UCLA can’t win big: It hasn’t found the right coach since Terry Donahue retired following the 1995 season. Since then, the Bruins have had 5 coaches in 28 seasons, and are 122-112 in Pac-12 games.

But for the best 2 seasons in that stretch under Bob Toledo, when UCLA won 15 of 16 conference games — 1 year after Donahue retired — the record is 107-111. That’s what UCLA has been for nearly 3 decades.

There’s one reason: players. None of the coaches that followed Donahue — Toledo, Karl Dorrell, Rick Neuheisel, Jim Mora, Kelly — recruited and developed players at a high enough level to win consistently.

UCLA has had 87 players drafted by the NFL since 1996 (an average of 3 per season), and only 4 quarterbacks. Of those quarterbacks, 2 were first-round picks: Cade McNown and Josh Rosen — 2 of the biggest misses in the modern era of the draft.

That’s what new coach DeShaun Foster walks into at Westwood. He knows the limitations and history from playing and coaching there, knows UCLA hasn’t won an outright conference championship since 1998.

He’ll try to change decades of mediocrity despite the built-in obstacle of recruiting players to compete in a conference on the other side of the country — a 4-hour flight from the best college campus in America. It’s a difficult job made considerably worse by the unique circumstances of the new college landscape.

9. Numbers

34.6. New Iowa OC Tim Lester spent 6 seasons as head coach at his alma mater Western Michigan (2017-2022), and the former Broncos’ quarterback led an offense that averaged 34.6 points per game in his first 5 seasons.

In 2022, the Broncos fell to 19 points a game, and Lester was fired after WMU finished 5-7. But over those first 5 seasons, Lester’s quarterbacks had a TD/INT ratio of 101/33.

In the past 3 seasons, Iowa’s quarterbacks had a combined TD/INT ratio of 28/23.

Lester will change the way Iowa structurally and schematically runs its offense, yet feature the tight end. Iowa will still run to throw off play action, but Lester will use formations and motion — structural moves — to get receivers open, and the TD/INT ratio will change dramatically.

10. Quote to note

Ohio State coach Ryan Day: “What we’re trying to do is just work. Just keep building this thing, keep growing. Have a great spring, and it’s a long journey to next year.”