1. The B1G Story

There’s a disconnect at Michigan.

Athletic director Warde Manuel says one thing, football coach Jim Harbaugh says another. Then president Santa Ono arrives as the smiling mediator.

But for how much longer?

How much longer can Michigan have misalignment among those 3 pieces critical to the football program yet still function among the elite of the game?

More pressing: At what point does the lack of alignment push the most successful coach since Bo out of Schembechler Hall and into the waiting arms of the NFL?

On one side of the Michigan football program, there is Harbaugh — the beloved alum who has beaten Ohio State 2 consecutive seasons and, for the first time since 1991-92, brought back-to-back standalone Big Ten championships to Ann Arbor.

He has had Michigan in the Playoff the last 2 seasons, and an argument could be made that the Wolverines are the most complete team in college football in 2023. He seemed bulletproof.

That is, until the NCAA arrived on Michigan’s doorstep and accused Harbaugh and his staff of impermissible player contact violations during the Covid season. The NCAA then doubled down and said Harbaugh deliberately mislead investigators, and for that, Harbaugh deserved a significant haircut beyond scholarship losses.

He deserved to be suspended.

Harbaugh said as recently as last month during Big Ten Media Days that he had “nothing to be ashamed of.”

This is where we see the other side of the program: Manuel and Ono. By self-imposing a 3-game suspension on Harbaugh, they publicly sided with the NCAA. This, of course, was less than 2 weeks after the administration tried to negotiate a 4-game suspension — which the NCAA infractions committee promptly denied.

No matter what you think of Harbaugh’s declaration of innocence, that’s not alignment.

That’s not how you keep a coach who has tried to leave for the NFL in each of the past 2 seasons.

2. Changing times, defenses

We’re in the middle of unthinkable change in NCAA structure. Rules and bylaws are as flexible as the ever-changing makeup of FBS conferences.

We’re not that far from NCAA enforcement dissolving completely.

Yet here is the Michigan administration, finding a way to suspend its coach a week before the beginning of what could be its first national championship season since 1997.

Let’s stop this Pollyanna nonsense about doing the right thing and the sanctity of the amateur model. When you have university-associated boosters spending millions on high school players who have never taken a collegiate snap because the NCAA threw open the doors on NIL without any structure, we’ve crossed the threshold of stupidity.

Now it’s all about managing risks and crises.

Harbaugh says he has nothing to be ashamed of. The NCAA clearly thinks a 4-game suspension isn’t enough.

There’s only 1 way to play this if you’re Michigan: back Harbaugh with everything you’ve got. Tell the NCAA to go scratch and that you’ll see them in court — where, by the way, it has a long and inglorious record of losses.

Because even if Harbaugh leaves for the NFL after the season, at least you’ve publicly backed him and given him every opportunity to win it all with a loaded team. If he leaves or stays after 2023, your defense doesn’t change.

Don’t plead The 5th. … Plead The Tennessee.

If Tennessee can have its coach and his wife paying players out of McDonald’s bags and not lose the ability to win championships or play in the postseason, the NCAA sure as hell isn’t going to hit Michigan with a postseason ban because its coach may or may not have impeded an investigation of — how idiotic is this? — improper player contact during a pandemic.

Knowing all of that, Michigan chose to suspend Harbaugh for 3 games in an effort to get ahead of any future sanctions.

Here’s your future sanction: you just pushed Harbaugh out the door at the end of 2023.

Good luck avoiding another Brady Hoke.

3. The Harbaugh decision, The Epilogue

Nearly 8 months ago, everything was happy and hopeful in Ann Arbor. Ono stepped in before Manuel botched negotiations with Harbaugh, and agreed to a new deal that kept Harbaugh in Maize and Blue.

Now everything has changed.

Now Harbaugh has not only been labeled a cheater by the NCAA, his own university has branded him as such. All to get ahead of an NCAA sheriff who may or may not have clear evidence that Harbaugh impeded an investigation.

This is the same coach who has preached at Stanford and Michigan that his players win with “character and cruelty.” The same coach who has stood for old school ideals of the college experience, and how academics, sports and paying players can coexist.

And at the first chance it got, Michigan bailed on him.

In another time, in another era — without the high profile cases lost over and over again by the NCAA, and without the precedent of the Tennessee case — what Michigan did would have been right. But college sports isn’t remotely what it once was.

That’s why everyone involved must be aligned — or face the fallout.

4. The odd choice

So Ryan Day declared Monday that he polled his staff on who should be Ohio State’s starting quarterback.

Not surprising: he says the vote was split down the middle.

Surprising: why are they even voting?

There has been no better coach and developer of quarterbacks in the college game than Day, who in 2 seasons as offensive coordinator and QBs coach and 4 seasons as head coach, has produced the most prolific offenses in college football.

Look at the run of quarterbacks produced since Day arrived in Columbus: JT Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and CJ Stroud.

If anyone knows who should play quarterback — Kyle McCord or Devin Brown — it’s Day. Maybe this was Day’s way of opening the door to both quarterbacks playing in 3 gimme putt games to begin the season before naming a starter for Week 4 at Notre Dame.

Or maybe it’s becoming more obvious by the day: the longer the competition goes, the more likely Brown wins the job. If McCord — Stroud’s backup the last 2 seasons — were the better option, he’d already be named the starter.

It’s almost as if Day is waiting for the right time to move to Brown without crushing the spirit of McCord. Sort of like what Harbaugh did last season with JJ McCarthy and Cade McNamara.

5. The Weekly 5

The odds for the top 5 Big Ten teams to reach the Playoff, and 1 key game.

1. Ohio State (+115): Sept.23, at Notre Dame. Buckeyes can lose to Michigan and make the Playoff. They can’t lose to the Irish and Michigan.

2. Michigan (+125): Nov. 11, at Penn State. The Stripe Out. The Penn State pass rush. The huge East Division game.

3. Penn State (+460): Oct. 21, at Ohio State. Get the 1st big one, and you’re full of confidence for the 2nd (vs. Michigan) 3 weeks later.

4. Wisconsin (+1,200): Oct. 28, Ohio State. The 1st big game for Wisconsin under Luke Fickell, against his alma mater — and after a physical game at Illinois.

5. Minnesota (+8,000): Sept. 16, at North Carolina. Vegas is intrigued by Minny, but Gophers need this game before they can contemplate Ohio State and Michigan (how about that schedule rotation gift from the league?).

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Illinois DT Keith Randolph Jr.

“Everyone is talking about (Jer’Zhan) Newton, and should be — but Randolph is a really good player. He can play the 3 or the 5, and he’s a pass rusher. He’s 6-5 and all of 305 pounds, just a big man in the middle. He’s a high volume play guy, played 1,000 snaps in the last 2 seasons. Strong hands, quick feet and he’s active and nasty. He had 4 sacks last year, but what really stands out is his ability to collapse the pocket. He had 27 (quarterback) pressures last year, and I think they missed a few.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: top freshman of impact.

1. Michigan: WR Karmello English. The 1 thing Michigan has lacked under Harbaugh: an elite, game-breaking wide receiver. English may be it.

2. Ohio State: WR Carnell Tate. Has shined in fall camp — and will be in the rotation — despite a deep receiving corps with 2 elite All-America candidates (Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka) and another potential breakout player (Julian Fleming).

3. Penn State: LB Tony Rojas. The Lions are loaded at linebacker, but it’s going to be hard to keep Rojas — 1 of the best players on the defense in fall camp — off the field.

4. Iowa: LB Ben Kueter. 2-sport star (football, wrestling) will get on the field early for Hawkeyes, and get significant time.

5. Wisconsin: CB Jonas Duclona. The top backup at one corner, and could eventually work his way into the starting lineup.

6. Minnesota: WR Kenric Lanier. The position is deep, but Lanier brings a unique skill set and speed.

7. Illinois: WR Malik Elzy. Has size (6-2, 210) and speed, and is a physical presence on the outside for new QB Luke Altmyer.

8. Maryland: Edge Neeo Avery. Terps are desperate for disruption from the front, and Avery will see time early at the rush linebacker (Jack) position.

9. Purdue: WR Arhmad Branch. Injuries in camp could allow the only blue-chip recruit in the 2023 class to play this season.

10. Michigan State: Edge Bai Jobe. Has flashed athleticism and disruption in fall camp, and will get on the field early.

11. Nebraska: WR Malachi Coleman. Huskers need playmakers on offense, and Coleman (6-4, 195) gives QB Jeff Sims a big, athletic target.

12. Rutgers: WR Ian Strong. Size (6-3, 210) and length, and speed to make a difference in a pass game that has struggled the last 3 seasons.

13. Indiana: Edge TaDerius Collins. A late bloomer in high school, Hoosiers got a steal with player Texas, TCU and Baylor badly wanted.

14. Northwestern: G Jordan Knox. He can play guard or tackle, and will likely begin his career inside.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I feel like I haven’t watched competent quarterback play at Nebraska in 15 years. Will it change under Matt Rhule? — Curt Durbin, Kansas City.

Curt:

I was speaking to a scout last week about Huskers QB Jeff Sims, and the scout told me a combination of things have hurt Sims’ development. He arrived at Georgia Tech while the staff was trying to transition from triple option to spread option. The personnel wasn’t close to turned over.

Sims was thrown into a difficult situation, compounded by numerous nagging injuries and not enough help around him at the skill positions and offensive line. He pressed, and made poor decisions — and by the end of his 3 seasons, had 33 turnovers (23 INTs) in 25 games.

If that sounds a lot like Adrian Martinez, well, it was. But there is a difference: Sims is a legit NFL prospect, with a big arm and the ability to force defenses into conflict with his run game ability.

He’s at the start of another rebuild at Nebraska, so it won’t be easy. The talent is there. Is there enough support around him?

9. Numbers

7.7. Maryland has worked all spring practice and fall camp on getting the ball downfield with intermediate and deep throws.

QB Taulia Tagovailoa had a career low 7.7 average yards per attempt in 2022. In a statistic gauged by tenths of a point, the drop from 8.1 ypa in 2021 was significant.

Maryland coach Mike Locksley hired Josh Gattis, whom he coached with at Alabama under Nick Saban, to run the offense. The goal is simple: pound away with underrated and bruising RB Roman Hemby, and throw over the top with Tagovailoa to transfer WRs Kaden Prather (WVU) and Tyrese Chambers (FIU).

Anything over 9 yards per attempt is generally considered championship level play from the quarterback and offense. Tagovailoa’s career-best was 8.3 in 2020.

The only Big Ten quarterback in 2022 over 9.0 was Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, who was tied for the national lead at 9.5.

10. Quote to note

Illinois coach Bret Bielema on QB Luke Altmyer: “He’s ready to go play. He’s earned it. He has done a really nice job since he arrived of balancing everything it takes to be the quarterback and lead the team.”