
The B1G 10: Playoff? No. Armed with an elite QB, this Michigan team can actually win it all
Every Tuesday, Matt Hayes tackles the 10 hottest topics in the Big Ten …
1. The B1G story
There was a statement moment in the rout for all to see, underscoring just how far the buildout has come at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh.
And the reality that Michigan — not Ohio State — is the best team in the Big Ten.
“We built a foundation,” Michigan edge Mike Morris told reporters after a 41-17 undressing of Penn State. “We’re starting to build our mansion right now.”
Trailing 17-16 early in the 3rd quarter, Michigan bullied up on both sides of the ball with a 3-series run that defined what Harbaugh wants to be at Michigan, and how this team is its best version yet.
That’s right, better than last year’s Playoff team, too.
First, a 67-yard run by Donovan Edwards that showed power and game-breaking speed. Then, a defensive stop on downs the Michigan 39. A play later, Blake Corum continued to force his crushing individual season — and Michigan’s growling and growing 2022 — on any disbelievers with a 61-yard touchdown run to essentially end the game.
This is the Michigan Harbaugh dreamed of when he returned to his alma mater in 2015. The same tough, physical and athletic program he built at Stanford — only with top-end athletes.
He has it all now. A program that can sustain losses to graduation and the NFL Draft and plug and play, and — in some cases — play better. An offensive line that can maul opponents, and a defensive line that can disrupt at the point of attack.
And he finally has the quarterback, the one thing Michigan didn’t have when it reached last year’s Playoff and saw Georgia’s defense staring back — where shallow crosses and 50-50 balls go to die. JJ McCarthy isn’t Andrew Luck, but he’s a more dangerous and athletically-gifted version of Cade McNamara and can make throws McNamara can’t.
More to the point: McCarthy, like everyone and everything else in the Michigan program, is getting better and more confident every week.
That’s not good news for Ohio State and the Big Ten.
It’s not good news for You Know Who (way) down south, either.
2. The ball in the air
The differences between Ohio State and Michigan since Harbaugh arrived weren’t limited to elite players and speed.
More than anything — and the key to everything — it was the quarterback.
Since 2015, Ohio State has played JT Barrett, Cardale Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and CJ Stroud.
Meanwhile, Michigan has trotted out: Jake Ruddock, Wilton Speight, John O’Korn, Brandon Peters, Shea Patterson, Joe Milton and Cade McNamara.
For those scoring at home, that’s 2 first-round picks (Haskins, Fields), and potentially the No. 1 overall pick in 2023 (Stroud), the Big Ten’s all-time leader in TD passes (Barrett), and a national championship quarterback who played in the NFL (Jones).
Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor: An Iowa transfer (Ruddock), a Houston transfer (O’Korn), an Ole Miss transfer (Patterson), 3 recruits who eventually transferred (Speight, Peters, Milton), and a solid game manager who went along for the Playoff ride last season.
For the first time since Harbaugh returned to Ann Arbor, Ohio State will have significant concern about the Michigan quarterback.
McCarthy isn’t a finished product, and he still makes mistakes (like the terrible decision that led to a tipped pass interception that gifted Penn State 7 of its 17 points). But his arm talent and accuracy (competing 77.1 percent of his passes) is undeniable, as is his ability to stress defenses with his legs.
He’s learning to play smart, as he did after the INT vs. Penn State. He completed 6-of-7 passes for 66 yards (including a 3rd-and-12 conversion on a scoring drive), and ran 4 times for 49 yards.
Michigan hasn’t yet been forced to veer from its bruising run game, and rely McCarthy’s arm talent. That game will come, though it may not happen until the regular season final at Ohio State.
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3. Scarlet and Gray and … partly cloudy
We’re halfway through the season, and have no idea what we really have with Ohio State — other than, of course, the obvious.
Ohio State has a really good and really dangerous offense. So good, in fact, that the loss of stud WR Jaxon Smith-Njiba (hamstring) for most of the season hasn’t been an issue.
So good, that TreVeon Henderson is no longer the No. 1 tailback. Miyan Williams leads the team in rushing (497 yards) and TDs (8), and has been hard to get off the field.
So good, that sophomore WR Emeka Egbuka, a former 5-star recruit who caught 9 balls last season, is averaging 19 yards a catch and has 6 TDs while Smith-Njiba rehabs.
Here’s what we don’t know: Are the Buckeyes better defensively with new coordinator Jim Knowles, and are all of these offensive fireworks a byproduct of a schedule with no pushback?
In games against 6 nobodies — as hard as that is to hear for Notre Dame and Wisconsin — Ohio State is No. 5 in the nation in total defense (253.5 ypg.) and No. 10 in scoring defense (15.7 ppg.).
Now, the bad news (and a couple of red flags for the future): Ohio State has forced 6 turnovers in 6 games (tied for 110th in the nation), and has 14 sacks (55th in the nation).
The Buckeyes are also 117th in the nation in red-zone defense, with 10 of 11 trips by opponents resulting in scores. The statistically best Power 5 offense Ohio State has faced this season is Wisconsin, whose coach (Paul Chryst) was fired earlier this month because, in part, the offense was horrific.
Ohio State won’t face an offense that can stress its defense — Iowa, at Penn State, at Northwestern, Indiana, at Maryland — until Michigan comes to Columbus on Nov. 26.
4. Cut the cord
The experiment has been ongoing since 2019, with pockets of brief success: 11 wins in 2019, 5-0 starts in 2021 and 2022.
Other than that, what does Penn State have to show for investing 4 seasons in quarterback Sean Clifford?
To be fair, Clifford wasn’t the reason Penn State was gutted by Michigan. Frankly, Clifford wasn’t the reason for the odd game plan from OC Mike Yurcich.
But that’s all over now. Penn State isn’t at the same level as Michigan or Ohio State.
So Lions coach James Franklin can continue to play Clifford and hope to upset the Buckeyes in 2 weeks, or rip off the Band-aid now and play freshman 5-star Drew Allar this week against Minnesota in Happy Valley and begin the transition. The next 6 games — Minnesota, Ohio State, at Indiana, Maryland, at Rutgers, Michigan State — can set up 2023 when this year’s talented freshman class will have a full year under them, and the current top-10 recruiting class for 2023 enters the mix.
The plan doesn’t mean you’re giving up on 2022, and the seniors who busted their tails in the offseason to have a special season. Penn State can still reach a New Year’s 6 bowl even with a loss to Ohio State, and likely has enough talent on both sides of the ball to win the remaining games no matter who plays quarterback.
Clifford injured his shoulder against Michigan (and Allar played), and his status for the Minnesota game is undetermined. It may be Allar’s game, anyway.
Either way, it’s the smart move. You know what you have with Clifford.
Time to see what you have with Allar.
The Weekly 5
Five picks against the spread, brought to you by our friends at FanDuel:
- Iowa at Ohio State (-28.5)
- Northwestern at Maryland (-13.5)
- Purdue (+2.5) at Wisconsin
- Minnesota at Penn State (-4.5)
- Indiana at Rutgers (-3)
Last week: 2-3
Season: 16-19.
6. Your tape is your résumé
An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible Big Ten player. This week: Maryland OT Jaelyn Duncan (6-6, 320).
“Just a massive and long individual with great reach and solid feet. He’s a ball of clay right now. But you see him out there and he looks the part. He’s a strong guy with a good punch, and can move and maul in the run game. I don’t think he’s a left tackle at this level, but he has solid pass pro technique. He has great bend and he understands how to leverage. He’s a Day 2 guy, and more than likely an early 3rd-rounder.”
7. Powered Up
This week’s Power Poll, and one big thing: 1 game to change the 2nd half of the season.
1. Michigan: Oct. 29, Michigan State. We know what awaits on Nov. 26, but it’s time to give the home fans what they want: a dismantling of the Spartans.
2. Ohio State: Oct. 29, at Penn State. The last (and first) test of the season before Michigan. A wild atmosphere, a defense that’s much better than what it showed vs. Michigan.
3. Penn State: Oct. 22, Minnesota. This game (and maybe Maryland on Nov. 12) will be the difference between 10 wins and a New Year’s 6 bowl — and something more disappointing.
4. Purdue: Oct. 22, at Wisconsin. At this point, every game is an adventure. Time to break a 15-game losing streak to the Badgers and set up a big road game against Illinois on Nov. 12.
5. Illinois: Oct. 29, at Nebraska. Illini have done too much work to trip up in Lincoln — and not set up big home games against Michigan State and Purdue that could allow them to pull away in the West Division.
6. Maryland: Nov. 5, at Wisconsin. The Terps can beat Northwestern without injured QB Taulia Tagovailoa. Can they beat Wisconsin for the first time without him?
7. Iowa: Oct. 22, at Ohio State. The Hawkeyes have had 2 weeks to prepare. If you’re going to right the season, why not here as a huge underdog?
8. Minnesota: Oct. 29, Rutgers. This assumes Minnesota, with 2 straight bad losses to Purdue and Illinois, will make it 3 against Penn State. Beating Rutgers could end the slide and save the season.
9. Michigan State: Nov. 5, at Illinois. Forget about Michigan, it’s a losing cause in 2022. But planting a stake at Illinois, the hot Big Ten team, can change the feel of a disappointing season.
10. Wisconsin: Oct. 22, Purdue. Beat the Boilermakers, and there’s a real chance to win out over the final 5 games of the season — and 8-4 is a solid run after firing your head coach earlier this month.
11. Nebraska: Oct. 29, Illinois. Huskers have played well enough the past 3 weeks to make this interesting against the hottest Big Ten team not named Michigan.
12. Rutgers: Oct. 29, at Minnesota: A back-loaded 2nd half of the season can get a boost with a road win at suddenly the vulnerable Gophers.
13. Indiana: Oct. 22, at Rutgers. Hoosiers have lost 4 in a row, and are desperate to stop the bleeding with a looming brutal 4-game run to finish the season.
14. Northwestern: Oct. 22, at Maryland. There’s not a win on the 2nd half schedule, unless it’s Maryland in its first game without Tagovailoa.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: I’m starting to like what I see from Mickey Joseph. Is he a legitimate option at Nebraska? — Cary Tillman, Omaha.
Cary:
The Huskers are playing harder and smarter under Joseph, but he’s going to need 2 big wins over the second half of the season to be a legitimate candidate. There’s too much invested in a program that has underachieved for 2 decades to hand it over to a career assistant.
Now if Nebraska upsets Illinois in Lincoln this week, then Michigan in Ann Arbor on Nov. 12, and beats Iowa for the first time since 2014 in the season final, Joseph absolutely could be named permanent head coach.
But I’d lean more toward Kansas coach Lance Leipold. He’s program builder, and a coach who has turned around Kansas and had unthinkable success in Division III (6 national titles in 8 seasons).
If the Huskers can’t get him, former Baylor and Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule is a proven program builder at Temple and Baylor, and is an elite recruiter.
9. Numbers
8.9. We’re 7 games into the season, and the Illinois defense under DC Ryan Walters (another potential Nebraska candidate) is still allowing less than 10 points per game (8.9 ppg.), shaving 13 points from last year’s average.
The Illini are No. 1 in the Big Ten in forced 16 turnovers (17 all of last season), No. 2 in sacks (23) and No.2 in opponent 3rd-down conversion percentage (26.5).
10. Quote to note
Penn State coach James Franklin, after a humiliating loss to Michigan, on the size of his lines of scrimmage: “We’ve got to develop. We’ve got to recruit. We’ve got to get bigger.”