Every Tuesday, Matt Hayes tackles the 10 hottest topics in the Big Ten …

1. The B1G Story

He has a 45-6 record in 4 seasons, and has won 31 of 33 Big Ten games.

And Ryan Day still isn’t the best coach in the Big Ten.

Welcome to the conference Jim Harbaugh now owns. It may have taken 8 years, but Harbaugh is finally doing what Michigan envisioned when it brought home its beloved alum in 2015.

Even — and here’s the bet part for Go Blue faithful — beating Ohio State.

Think about this: In the 3 years since Day threatened to “hang a hundred” on Michigan after Harbaugh alleged on a Big Ten coaches conference call that Day and Ohio State broke NCAA rules, Harbaugh and Michigan have beaten the Buckeyes by a combined 37 points.

The teams didn’t play in 2020 — the “hang a hundred” season in question — because of the pandemic, but Harbaugh and Michigan have won 2 straight since and Harbaugh holds a 2-1 advantage over Day.

Now on with this year’s Big Ten coaches rankings, in tiers:

2. Championship level

1. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan: Here’s what’s intriguing to the rise of Harbaugh: he’s doing it without top 5 recruiting classes — which may as well be the No. 1 factor in winning a national title.

In the last 5 years, Michigan has landed the Nos. 10, 12, 13, 12, and — in 2023 — No.19 (after back-to-back Playoff appearances!) classes according to 247Sports’ composite rankings.

Either the Big Ten isn’t nearly as difficult as we think, or Harbaugh and his staff develop players as well as anyone. And I’m going with the latter.

Since the program’s 2-4 Covid season — when Michigan restructured his contract to make it less Harbaugh-friendly and put him on notice — the Wolverines are 25-3 with 2 routs of Ohio State (snapping an 8-game losing streak) and 2 Playoff appearances.

Next up: winning a Playoff game.

2. Ryan Day, Ohio State: Wrap your mind around this: Ohio State was this close to beating Georgia in the Playoff semifinal, and then would’ve routed TCU in the national championship game.

The coach who can’t beat Michigan of late — and is getting embarrassed in the process — would’ve won a national title.

In 4 years, Day’s Ohio State teams have lost twice in the Playoff semifinals, and once in the Playoff national championship game. And won the Rose Bowl. The last 5 recruiting classes for Ohio State: Nos. 7, 5, 2, 4, 4.

It’s utterly ridiculous for anyone — this means you, Ohio State fan — to think Day isn’t getting the most out of top 5 recruiting classes.

3. James Franklin, Penn State: There was a time after the 2016 Big Ten championship — and after Penn State should’ve made the Playoff — where I believed Franklin and the Lions were set to move into the nation’s elite.

But it stalled in 2017 because of 2 losses by a combined 4 points, and Penn State never got it back because of missed opportunities in big games and lack of elite play at quarterback.

It’s time for the coach who won big at Vanderbilt (really, he did), to take the Playoff step at Penn State. He has the QB (2022 5-star Drew Allar), and the roster is loaded. If not this year, in 2024.

4. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern: I’m still a believer, and always will be. The Wildcats will never recruit at an elite level, and we’ll never get to see Fitzgerald coach Notre Dame or Michigan or Penn State — because he loves his alma mater and Chicago. So stop dreaming about it.

Now, the downside: Take away the impressive 7-2 finish in the difficult Covid season, and Northwestern is 7-29 in its last 3 full seasons. This is an important prove-it year for Fitzgerald, a tremendous coach who’s in danger of falling behind in the NIL world.

3. The long climb up

5. Bret Bielema, Illinois: I always laugh at those who proclaim Bielema was wildly successful at Wisconsin because of Barry Alvarez — and then point to Bielema’s failure at Arkansas as proof.

If you’re going to point at Arkansas as proof, what then do we make of what Bielema is doing at Illinois? The place was a dumpster fire when he arrived.

At one point over the last decade, a P.E. coach (Tim Beckman) was running the show (no offense to the great P.E. coaches of our youth). Illinois won 7 of 8 to start 2022 (with a patchwork roster and castoff quarterback), and then lost 3 straight 1 possession games — including a 19-17 loss to Michigan that was gifted to the Wolverines by horrific officiating.

6. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin: Of all the coaching changes this offseason, none is more exciting than Fickell moving to Madison.

The first coach to get a Group of 5 school to the Playoff — he was 53-10 his last 5 seasons at Cincinnati — takes a Big Ten job with everything going for it. For those who believe you can’t throw the ball in November in the Big Ten, a guy named Day is doing a fairly good job of it at Ohio State. (A couple of guys named Favre and Rodgers did a good job of it in the Wisconsin winters, too.)

7. Matt Rhule, Nebraska: The rebuilds at Temple and Baylor were remarkable, but weren’t the reason the NFL took a chance on him. He was on the NFL radar after spending 1 season — that’s right, 1 season — in the league as an assistant offensive line coach with the Giants.

It didn’t work there for a variety of reasons, and now Rhule arrives in football heaven with the heaviest lift of his career: turning around a storied program that has swung and missed on the last 4 coaches and dropped deep into obscurity.

8. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: There are 2 ways to look at what are clearly becoming the golden years of Ferentz at Iowa.

The good: he embraced the transfer portal and found a quarterback (Cade McNamara).

The bad: he refused to hire a QB coach and/or a play-caller, and left his son Brian (OC, QB coach, play-caller) with the keys to a brutally bad offense of his making.

4. Searching for answers

9. PJ Fleck, Minnesota: In the last 3 non-Covid years, Fleck has won 29 games at Minnesota.

Let me say that again: 29 games at Minnesota. Honestly, what more do you want from a Gophers coach? A West Division title would be nice.

10. Mel Tucker, Michigan State: Arrived at Michigan State, shook up the place, and 2 years later won 11 games and a New Year’s Six bowl. Now what?

Tucker needs a bounce-back season from an ugly 2022 to support the 2021 season — and the $98 million Michigan State spent on him after it.

11. Greg Schiano, Rutgers: Good coach, bad situation. A couple problems: the Big Ten isn’t the Big East, and Schiano is recruiting in a critical area against James Franklin and Mike Locksley — 2 coaches that get after it.

It will never be what it was under Schiano in the Big East, but if he can hit on a quarterback, it can turn to an 8- or 9-win season.

12. Mike Locksley, Maryland: The breakthrough season was probably 2022 with his best roster yet at Maryland — and the Terps nearly got both Ohio State and Michigan.

Locksley has come a long way from the ugly days of New Mexico, proof that 1 failed opportunity shouldn’t derail a coaching career.

13. Tom Allen, Indiana: The Hoosiers broke through in 2020, and then-Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren decided to change the league’s Covid-specific rules at the 11th hour because Ohio State otherwise wouldn’t qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game and the Big Ten would get shut out of the Playoff.

The larger problem: Indiana is 6-18 since, and the quarterback it couldn’t hold on to (Michael Penix Jr.) could lead Washington the Playoff in 2023.

14. Ryan Walters, Purdue: Barry Odom raved about Walters when he was Missouri’s DC, and Bielema did the same when Walters was at Illinois.

Once his plan is in place, he’ll recruit better than anyone has at Purdue — and that’s where change begins.

5. The Weekly 5

Five games that stress the Iowa over/under of 7.5.

1. Sept. 23 at Penn State: Lions have the talent to win the Big Ten, but might be 1 year from rare Playoff run.

2. Sept. 9, at Iowa State: Cyclones won last year for the first time since 2014, holding Iowa to 150 total yards on 52 plays.

3. Oct. 14, at Wisconsin: New Wisconsin offense, same physical and aggressive Iowa defense.

4. Nov. 18, Illinois: Illini defense will be rebuilt, but the offense will throw it more downfield with new QB Luke Altmyer.

5. Oct. 21, Minnesota: Watch how much different Gophers QB Athan Kaliakmanis plays this season vs. Hawkeyes (87 yards, 1 INT in 2022).

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Wisconsin OT Jack Nelson.

“A massive individual. He’s got to be all of 6-7, and he’s long and I think his frame can take 10-15 (pounds) of good weight. He has quick feet, and a strong punch. I want to see more nastiness. He’s an incredibly athletic guy who relies on it too much. Those strong and punishing edge guys can give him problems.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: most important month of the 2023 season.

1. Michigan: November (Purdue, at Penn State, at Maryland, Ohio State). Two Big Ten heavyweights in 1 month, and a dicey game at Maryland — who may have had enough in 2022 to win in Ann Arbor.

2. Ohio State: October (Maryland, at Purdue, Penn State, at Wisconsin). The back-to-back with Penn State and Wisconsin — Fickell’s first game as a Big Ten coach against his alma mater — will be a difficult lift.

3. Penn State: September (West Virginia, Delaware, at Illinois, Iowa, at Northwestern). Allar needs a strong start, and a former bitter rival (WVU), a tricky road game (Illinois) and a night game against an elite defense (Iowa) should get him (and the Lions) ready for what’s ahead.

4. Wisconsin: October (Rutgers, Iowa, at Illinois, Ohio State). The new Wisconsin offense won’t get stressed in September, but hello, October: 4 defenses that can force bad decisions and create turnovers.

5. Iowa: September (Utah State, at Iowa State, Western Michigan, at Penn State, Michigan State). It won’t take long to see the impact of McNamara — or if Brian Ferentz was the problem all along.

6. Minnesota: November (Illinois, at Purdue, at Ohio State, Wisconsin). If we’ve learned anything about Fleck at Minnesota, it’s this: November is make or break. This time, with a game in Columbus added in for good measure.

Can the Gophers finally push through under Fleck, and win games that matter to get to the Big Ten Championship Game?

7. Illinois: September (Toledo, at Kansas, Penn State, FAU, at Purdue): There are bigger games down the road, but what a way to begin for Altmyer: a Toledo team that can score big, Kansas that can do the same, and his 1st Big Ten start against Penn State.

8. Maryland: November (Penn State, at Nebraska, Michigan, at Rutgers). That’s 2 of the 3 best teams in the Big Ten, and a Nebraska team that might be figuring it out by early November.

9. Purdue: September (Fresno State, at Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Wisconsin, Illinois). New coach, new quarterback, new buy-in — and 5 dicey games. Even the trip to Virginia Tech, which in 2022 was as bad as the early Frank Beamer years, will be difficult.

10. Nebraska: September (at Minnesota on Aug. 31, at Colorado, Northern Illinois, Louisiana Tech, Michigan). Let’s be realistic: if the Huskers can win at rival Colorado, a 3-2 start to September is about as good as it gets — and just might lead to bowl eligibility.

11. Michigan State: November (Nebraska, at Ohio State, at Indiana, Penn State): Spartans may need the Nebraska and Indiana games for bowl eligibility, and/or an upset of Ohio State or Penn State to show Tucker has the program back on track.

12. Indiana: September (Ohio State, Indiana State, Louisville, Akron, at Maryland). 4 straight home games to begin the season, and 3 are winnable. Considering what’s ahead in October and November, get it while you can, Hoosiers.

13. Rutgers: November (Ohio State, at Iowa, at Penn State, Maryland). Unless something wildly upsetting happens, Rutgers isn’t winning in November. Are there 6 wins in the first 2 months of the season?

14. Northwestern: September (at Rutgers, UTEP, at Duke, Minnesota, Penn State). This is not an opening month schedule that allows the Wildcats to respond to back-to-back ugly seasons.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I’m really excited about the future at Penn State, but I have this nagging feeling that Drew Allar is going to be like Christian Hackenberg. — Connie Douglas, Philadelphia.

Connie:

If Allar is anything like Hackenberg, Penn State will get to the Playoff in his time as starter. Hackenberg was placed in a brutal situation of not only performing at a high level as a true freshman, but carrying a program and a university out of a hell hole — and played well doing so.

That’s a ton of pressure for a young player, and not unlike the pressure Allar will face this season. The difference: Penn State is built better this time around, and Allar will have more pieces around him to facilitate success than Hackenberg did.

Penn State was crawling out of a deep hole when Hackenberg arrived. Penn State is closing in on the Playoff as Allar takes his first snap as the starter.

9. Numbers

1. It’s early — thought not crazy early in the world of high school recruiting — but Michigan is doing something it hasn’t done under Harbaugh.

Win big at recruiting.

The Wolverines currently have the No. 1-ranked class for 2024, according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. The class includes 3 of the top 80 players, and another 5-star quarterback (Jadyn Davis).

When you start stacking blue-chip QB recruits, you’ve hit it as a program that can recruit at an elite level. First, there was JJ McCarthy, and now Davis.

More promising: Michigan is still high on the list for 4 top-50 players, including 5-stars OT Brandon Baker and DE Ernest Willor Jr.

10. Quote to note

Rutgers coach Greg Schiano on the new offense, and if he’s the most optimistic since returning as head coach: “It is since I’ve been back here. I think what we’re going to have to see is how quickly we kind of get to operating the offense level. There has to be an optimum level. But how quickly do we get to operating the offense at an acceptable level? We’re not there yet.”