1. The B1G Story

Players play out of fear. Coaches coach out of fear.

When football’s delicate yet simplistic ecosystem is interrupted, change arrives.

Sometimes, unthinkable change.

The Mel Tucker story doesn’t begin last weekend with the revelation of sexual harassment allegations, but nearly 2 years ago when Michigan State made the colossal mistake of giving him a guaranteed $95 million contract extension.

Why Tucker was given the extension is strange enough (more on that later). The bigger question is why no one at the university had the foresight to see that a guaranteed extension — no matter the production on the field — eliminated all fear from Tucker.

He was playing with a parachute of generational money, no matter what happened on the field. What did they think was going to happen?

If Tucker didn’t implode off the field (as is alleged by sexual assault prevention advocate Brenda Tracy), it was only a matter of time before he lost control of the team on it. You can’t tell any coach, whose entire professional life has revolved around the thrill of winning and fear of losing, that you’re paying him nearly $100 million no matter what happens on the field — and expect everything to run smoothly.

If you can’t connect the dots from off-field problems to on-field results, you’re not looking closely enough. Coaches tell players over and over that living well off the field has a direct correlation to success on it.

A year after an 11-2 season in 2021 that included a New Year’s 6 bowl win and the extension, Tucker’s team cratered to 5-7. Worse, recruiting never really received a bump from the top 10 finish in 2021.

Michigan State finished 23rd in 2022 recruiting, according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. A year later, the Spartans finished 24th, and are currently 49th for 2024 — and that’s without the impact of Tucker’s suspension.

It’s not a coincidence that Tucker’s alleged relationship with Tracy — Tucker claims phone sex was part of a “consensual and intimate relationship”; Tracy claims it was not — began shortly after he was given a guaranteed contract with no guardrails other than don’t embarrass the university.

When there’s no fear of losing — on or off the field — reckless decisions are made.

If what Tracy claims is true, Tucker did an absolutely horrific thing — and there’s no excuse. Even if he didn’t harass Tracy, the decision to start a relationship with her was unthinkable.

Did that guaranteed contract make him feel bulletproof?

2. Desperate spending rarely works

Texas A&M started this nonsense in 2018 by guaranteeing Jimbo Fisher’s entire $75 million contract when it lured him from Florida State.

Three years later, after a 9-1 record in the Covid season that included a win over North Carolina in the Orange Bowl, the administration doubled down and extended the deal to 10 years at $90 million guaranteed. Now Texas A&M might do anything to get out from underneath it.

Because if the Aggies fire Fisher — 14-12 since the extension and a loser last week at Miami by 15 points —after this season, the university will owe him $76.8 million.

Unless, that is, Fisher does something to embarrass the university or put it in a bad light.

Nick Saban’s contract is guaranteed. So too are those of Kirby Smart, Brian Kelly, Billy Napier, James Franklin and Lincoln Riley ($110 million from USC). Certainly, not all of those men will implode.

But where’s the motivation? Where’s the fear of losing or being fired? What exactly are universities expecting from coaches whose only motivation to win is ego?

More damaging from the Michigan State side of the fence: All of the aforementioned coaches with guaranteed deals are at universities with far greater financial support systems and recruiting footprints to succeed than Michigan State.

3. Getting out, The Epilogue

Tucker is awaiting the conclusion of a Title IX investigation into the allegations from Tracy. A hearing scheduled for Oct. 5-6 will likely decide his fate.

But even if what Tucker says is true, it’s hard to imagine a road that leads him back to coaching at Michigan State. Even if his side of the story is true, the relationship with Tracy was incredibly short-sighted and inappropriate — and an embarrassment for a university still dealing with the fallout of sexual predator Larry Nassar.

The university would likely fire him with cause for — as it states in his contract — bringing “public disrespect, contempt or ridicule” to Michigan State. Tucker would then sue the university to try to reclaim his guaranteed money.

If the Title IX hearing sides with Tracy, Michigan State is likely facing a lawsuit from Tracy. Either way, the university will be out a large chunk of cash — and further embarrassed.

And it all started by giving a coach who was 13-7 after his first 20 games — including an 8-0 start to his 2nd season — guaranteed generational money for no reason other than Michigan State believed Tucker was being courted by LSU.

Money divorced from fear of losing. On or off the field.

4. The long, tough slog

What did Nebraska think was going to happen? It’s almost as if Huskers fans forgot why Scott Frost was fired and Matt Rhule was hired.

Nebraska won 4 games in 2022. Nebraska hasn’t been to a bowl game — a flipping bowl game — since 2016, and hasn’t been to a major bowl (the bar for so many decades) since 2001.

Now there’s panic in the streets? Now?

“This is kind of what you get when you hire me,” Rhule said Monday at his weekly press conference, as if he needed to remind the great fans of Nebraska that the program was a hell hole and he’s in the early stages of digging out. “It’s not going to be a quick fix, it’s not going to be overnight. It’s going to be built on rock, so we take advantage of these painful, painful moments.”

The reality is, Nebraska is limited on the offensive line. It can’t protect (which limits what QB Jeff Sims can be/do), and it struggles in run blocking (which limits Rhule’s throw-off-play-action offense).

There will be more painful moments, no matter how hard the defense keeps playing.

There will also be times where you can see the sun, where you know what it will look like on a weekly basis when everything is rebuilt.

5. The Weekly 5

Five games against the spread.

1. Virginia at Maryland (-14)

2. Penn State (-14.5) at Illinois

3. Louisville (-10.5) at Indiana

4. Minnesota (+7) at North Carolina

5. Washington (-16) at Michigan State

Last week: 5-0.

Season: 9-1.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Penn State CB Kalen King.

“He will be the 1st corner picked, so let’s start with what he needs to work on. He’s grabby, not unlike a lot college corners. That can be coached. He might be too aggressive, and I love aggressive cover guys. He has to pick his spots. But boy, the closing speed, and the ability to mirror (routes), and the physical presence at the jam, and the ball skills. He’s a dude. He just explodes when breaking on the ball.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: 2 weeks into the season, biggest preseason miss.

1. Michigan: QB JJ McCarthy, whose close relationship with coach Jim Harbaugh is well documented, may be distracted by Harbaugh’s 3-game suspension to begin the season. McCarthy has completed 87 percent of his passes, and is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt.

2. Ohio State: There won’t be much of a difference between QB Kyle McCord and CJ Stroud. The numbers aren’t the same (McCord has 3 TDs, 1 INT), and the offense is still trying to find its stride.

3. Penn State: DE Chop Robinson, a former 5-star uber-recruit, will develop into a feared pass rusher. In 2 games against inferior opponents, Robinson has 3 tackles.

4. Iowa: The offense will change under new QB Cade McNamara, and OC Brian Ferentz will reach his offseason goals to keep his job. The Hawkeyes have missed the 25 ppg mandate in both games, but are 2 wins closer to 7 — and still last in the league in total offense.

5. Minnesota: The Gophers’ offense will move into the upper half of the Big Ten under QB Athan Kaliakmanis. Minnesota is No.13 in the Big Ten in scoring offense (19 ppg) and No. 11 in total offense (332 ypg).

6. Wisconsin: The new Air Raid offense will highlight dynamic WR Chimere Dike. In 2 games, Dike has 5 catches (20.8 ypc) and 1 TD — but hasn’t gotten nearly enough targeted throws.

7. Maryland: Terps didn’t do enough defensively in the portal to address needs. Maryland has given up 26 points in 2 games, and should have success over the next 3 (Virginia, Michigan State, Indiana). The big test: Oct. 7 at Ohio State.

8. Illinois: Losses in the secondary will be minimized by a strong pass rush from the defensive front. Illinois has given up 507 yards passing, and Toledo and Kansas completed 62.1 percent of passes attempted.

9. Michigan State: After a season of turmoil and regression, a rebuilt defense will push the Spartans back to the upper half of the conference. The defense has been solid against 2 gimme putts — but any chance at moving back to the upper half of the league ended with Tucker’s poor personal decisions.

10. Purdue: Ryan Walters will work his defensive magic in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers have given up 56 points and 773 yards to Fresno State and Virginia Tech.

11. Rutgers: OC Kirk Ciarrocca’s system will give QB Gavin Wimsatt easier 1st- and 2nd-level throws within an efficient framework. Wimsatt completed 54 percent of his passes against 2 of the 3 worst defenses Rutgers will play this season.

12. Nebraska: The offensive line will be more physical than previous seasons. It could be worse than anything the Frost years produced.

13. Indiana: QB Tayven Jackson will allow IU to drive the ball downfield, and keep defenses from loading the box. Forget the Indiana State game, Jackson (and backup Brendan Sorsby) barely averaged 4 yards per attempt against Ohio State.

14. Northwestern: The Wildcats may not win a game in 2023. The UTEP win last weekend was impressive, and Northwestern should beat FCS Howard. After that, maybe IU. Maybe.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Is the Big Ten better, top to bottom, than the SEC this year? — Donna Culbert, Chicago.

Donna:

I don’t know about top to bottom, but I really like the Big 3 (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State) from the East Division. They’re better than any 3 in the SEC.

Even though Ohio State is still figuring it out with McCord, the odds are very good that coach Ryan Day will eventually (sooner rather than later) get similar production from the offense.

Penn State will go as far as QB Drew Allar goes, and we’ll get an idea of how Allar handles road games this weekend in a sneaky intriguing game against Illinois.

Then there’s Michigan, which I said at the beginning of the season was the best team in the nation — and I’m not backing away from it.

We won’t know where we are with the Big 3 until late October, but I’d like to see the Iowa offense get better and the Hawkeyes make a move into the elite of the league. Minnesota — now that freshman RB Darius Taylor has arrived — is a dangerous team, and I still have hope for Wisconsin despite the struggles against Washington State.

9. Numbers

-2. Watch this number. If the Wisconsin offense throws more than it runs, they’ll lose 4-6 games. Even though the system is built around the pass-happy Air Raid offense, the philosophy is based on downhill runs.

The Badgers have 71 pass attempts in 2 games, and 69 rushes — for a -2 difference. When OC Phil Longo’s system is running efficiently and prolifically, the offense runs the ball anywhere from 55-60 percent of the time.

In the loss to Washington State, Wisconsin threw it 40 times vs. 29 rushes. That -11 difference is a black hole for wins.

10. Quote to note

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz on earning his 200th career win last weekend vs. rival Iowa State: “There aren’t a lot of days off for these guys. I mean, they really work hard and they do so much. They’re held to a high standard character wise, citizenship wise, academically. So to see them happy and to see them celebrate, that’s a pretty good thing.”