The B1G 10: What, exactly, have OSU and Michigan done to deserve so much Playoff love?

Every Tuesday, Matt Hayes tackles the 10 hottest topics in the Big Ten …

1. The B1G Story

Someone has to say it because everyone is overlooking it.

Who have Ohio State and Michigan played this season that justifies a top 3 Playoff ranking for each?

“It’s a joyful, happy ride that we’re on,” Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said last weekend.

A happy, e-a-s-y ride.

But as both Michigan and Ohio State continue to dust off Big Ten cupcakes, the undeniable must be asked: What exactly do we know about either team?

They’re a combined 20-0, and have yet to be pushed. They’re careening toward a mega matchup on Nov. 26, and the only reason it’s a giant game is because they’re 20-0 and, well, we, think they’re good.

Because they sure haven’t had the opportunity to show it in a game that matters.

The schedule is laughable, with little stress. This is the worst Big Ten — from No. 3 to No. 14 — since the league expanded to 14 teams in 2014.

Ohio State’s average margin of victory: 31.2 points. Michigan’s average margin of victory: 30.2 points.

The best game for both is Penn State — which, other than losses to Ohio State and Michigan, has played the same conference slop Ohio State and Michigan have. See where this is headed?

Ohio State’s best win outside of Penn State is Notre Dame, which lost at home to Marshall and Stanford. Michigan’s best win outside Penn State is Iowa, and if I need to explain the absurdity that is Iowa, you’re in the wrong place.

Yet for some reason, Ohio State and Michigan have been slotted into the Playoff top 3 — and better yet, are part of a narrative that even the loser of the Nov. 26 game at Columbus could still advance to the Playoff.

Why?

Because they look good beating average-to-bad teams, or brand name, or conference affiliation. Take your pick. This was the same narrative last season, when Michigan won The Game for the first time since 2011, and advanced to the Playoff.

Then reality hit, and the Wolverines were in a 27-3 hole at halftime of their Playoff semifinal against Georgia.

Ohio State, meanwhile, took the consolation prize of the Rose Bowl, and an old fashioned WAC game broke out in Pasadena against Utah.

We thought we knew what Ohio State and Michigan were in 2021 because Michigan State had double-digit wins, and all 3 teams were in the Playoff hunt in November.

Then Michigan was emasculated in the Orange Bowl Playoff semifinal, Ohio State had to score 17 points in the 4th quarter to beat 4-loss Utah, and Michigan State needed 21 points in the 4th quarter of the Peach Bowl to beat a Pitt team without its starting quarterback.

What do we know about Ohio State and Michigan in 2022? Nothing.

That should scare the heck out of everyone.

2. Measuring up

For 2 weeks we’ve heard Playoff selection committee chairman and NC State athletic director Boo Corrigan — speaking on behalf of committee members — minimize what TCU has accomplished this season.

At one point, Corrigan proclaimed with a straight face that unbeaten TCU — with 5 wins in games against ranked teams — “trailed” in too many games. The committee calls it “game control.”

Utter nonsense.

Corrigan also said Oregon’s 46-point loss to Georgia was the same as Tennessee’s 14-point loss to the No. 1 Bulldogs in the eyes of the committee, setting up a future argument that Tennessee’s loss to Georgia was too damning to push it into the Playoff without a conference championship (which isn’t a defined metric, but gets used as one every season, anyway).

That means if Michigan-Ohio State is a close game, the loser will benefit from the prisoner of the moment eye test. The loser in that scenario will be Tennessee, which lost a month earlier to Georgia — in a game that was (here’s the key) “the same” as Oregon’s 46-point blowout loss.

Ohio State is sitting firm at No. 2 in the nation, with the committee praising the Buckeyes’ top-10 scoring offense and defense.

What the committee won’t tell you is Toledo, statistically, is the best offense Ohio State has faced this season. That’s right, the big, bad Rockets.

Ohio State’s November games to remember this season: at Northwestern, Indiana, at Maryland and Michigan.

The Playoff committee actually had the stones to call an ugly 21-7 win over Northwestern “hard fought” — and praised Ohio State’s ability to play through terrible weather conditions and beat 1-win Northwestern.

Then there’s Michigan, and its brutal nonconference schedule of Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn. The Wolverines have a dynamic new quarterback in former 5-star recruit JJ McCarthy, but haven’t played a defense of significance all season.

Iowa and Penn State are top-20 defenses, but those numbers are built on the backs of (again) the worst Big Ten since 2014.

“Make no mistake, there is a lot of talent on both (Michigan and Ohio State),” an NFL scout told me. “They’re not getting stressed in those (Big Ten) games. That won’t be a factor when they play each other, but it could when they reach the Playoff.”

3. The Playoff road, The Epilogue

We’re closer than ever to both Ohio State and Michigan earning Playoff spots. There’s only one remaining hurdle: unbeaten TCU.

If the Horned Frogs win out (at Baylor, Iowa State) and win the Big 12 Championship Game, they’re in the Playoff. Any loss anywhere along the way opens the door for Big Ten and SEC chaos.

Or more specific: Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State and Michigan in the Playoff. One-loss Clemson (ACC Champion) doesn’t have a signature win and likely can’t get one. Same with 1-loss USC.

The only obstacle is TCU, which would have a better résumé than either 1-loss Michigan or Ohio State. But if Championship Week begins with Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU and Tennessee in the top 5, and TCU loses to a 3- or 4-loss team (Kansas State?) in the Big 12 Championship Game, do the Frogs stay at 4 — ahead of Tennessee and the Ohio State-Michigan loser?

Just as big a question: Can Ohio State QB CJ Stroud or Michigan RB Blake Corum win the Heisman Trophy despite the weak schedules? Is that something Heisman voters would hold against 2 players who almost certainly will be among the top 5 in votes?

The closer we get to Nov. 26, the more the worst Big Ten since the 14-team expansion will play a factor in not only the loser of the game still advancing to the Playoff, but a potential Heisman Trophy winner from 1 of the 2 teams.

4. The Road to Indy

There are 256 combinations of outcomes to determine the West Division champions. Let’s just take the easiest.

Ladies and gentlemen, we give you Purdue. The Boilers need to beat the 2 worst teams in the Big Ten (Northwestern, at Indiana) and get an Iowa loss (at Minnesota, Nebraska) to win the West.

Simple enough, right?

Let me reintroduce Purdue:

— Scored with less than a minute to play at Syracuse, but 2 — that’s right, 2 — personal foul calls during and after the extra point gave Syracuse the ball at the 50 after the kickoff.

I don’t need to tell you what happened after that. Just know that it was 1 of the 6 straight wins to begin the season for the Orange.

— Purdue won 4 straight after the Syracuse loss, then rolled into Wisconsin with its best chance to beat the Badgers since winning at Camp Randall in 2003. And lost. Again.

— A week later, Purdue could still have taken control of the West with a home game against Iowa and a Hawkeyes offense that couldn’t score points if you spotted them the red zone. And lost 24-3.

— Pass-happy Purdue last week traveled to Champaign and upset Illinois by beating the Illini at their own game: running the ball and stopping the run.

Translation: These next 2 weeks against the 2 worst teams in the Big Ten will be anything but easy for Purdue.

Or Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois go 1-1 over the next 2 weeks — which is very possible — and Wisconsin wins at Nebraska and home against Minnesota, and it’s a 5-way tie.

That’s right, a 5-way tie at 5-4 in the conference.

5. The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread, brought to you by FanDuel.

• Northwestern (+19.5) at Purdue
• Indiana at Michigan State (-10.5)
• Wisconsin (-13.5) at Nebraska
• Illinois at Michigan (-17.5)
• Ohio State at Maryland (+27.5)

Last week: 1-4.

Season: 23-32.

6. Your tape is your résumé

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible Big Ten player. This week: Iowa LB Jack Campbell.

“He’s a thumper, and he brings a load. A violent hitter. He’s just one of those old-school guys. He’s not the fastest guy, but he can be disruptive against the run. I’m not sure we have a 6-5 “Mike” (linebacker) in this league, and one who brings all of 245 pounds. He can rush the passer, too. He has the ability to bend and get skinny and get by offensive tackle and interior blocks. He doesn’t have the athleticism of (former Iowa LB) Josey Jewell, but they’re similar in the way they play the game. Violent, tough guys who are always around the ball.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: surprise of the 2022 season.

1. Michigan: UM is averaging more sacks this season (3.1) than it did last year (2.4) with 2 All-American edge rushers.

2. Ohio State: Buckeyes are No. 2 in the nation in scoring (46.8 ppg.), and dynamic WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played in 3 games (in total, less than 1 full game) because of a hamstring injury.

3. Penn State: Freshmen TB Nicholas Singleton and LB Abdul Carter are the best players on each side of the ball.

4. Iowa: Somehow, star TE Sam LaPorta has 49 catches for 506 yards — for an offense that can barely move the ball.

5. Purdue: WR Charlie Jones. An afterthought at Iowa in 2021, he’ll finish this season with more than 100 catches.

6. Illinois: QB Tommy DeVito. Lost his job at Syracuse, transferred to Illinois and his efficient, smart play (15 TDs, 3 INTs, 70 percent passes completed) brought balance to run-oriented offense.

7. Minnesota: The return of OC Kirk Ciarrocca has delivered minimal impact: from 162 passing yards per game, to 182.

8. Maryland: New DC, new scheme, same Maryland D: still can’t get off the field (opponents converting 41 percent on 3rd down).

9. Wisconsin: A 24-point home loss to inferior Illinois (and former Badgers coach Bret Bielema) was the beginning of the worst season in Madison in more than 2 decades.

10. Michigan State: No carryover from the breakout 2021 season has translated to blowout losses (Washington, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan).

11. Rutgers: Played 3 QBs, and no closer to finding a QB1 after Year 3 (Part II) under coach Greg Schiano.

12. Nebraska: Scott Frost didn’t make it to the end of the season. Just how committed were NU officials to the win or walk plan from the beginning?

13. Indiana: Two years ago, Hoosiers won as many Big Ten games as Ohio State (6, including the Buckeyes’ win in B1G title game). The Hoosiers are 1-15 vs. the B1G since — including 1-6 this season.

14. Northwestern: Worst scoring offense (15.3 ppg., overall, 13.1 ppg., conference) in nearly 2 decades.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: The season is over at Penn State. We can’t win the Big Ten, and we’re probably not going to a big bowl game. — Why not play Drew Allar? — Lew Potter, Philadelphia. 

Lew:

If Penn State coach James Franklin was going to make a move, it would’ve happened last week in a 30-0 rout of Maryland. Four-year starter Sean Clifford wasn’t playing that well, and the game was in hand.

But you better believe Franklin wants 11 wins (still possible), and wants Clifford to be a part of it. I get the idea of playing Allar now and getting him game repetitions heading into his first starting season in 2023. But it’s difficult to walk away from Clifford, who has played through many injuries and played well the majority of his career.

Coaches go through this difficult exercise every season, and not just at the most important position on the field. You have to believe in what you do and how you coach — and know that you’ll have young guys prepared for 2023 no matter how much they play down the stretch.

Franklin owes it to Clifford to let him play out 2022, and try to be part of another 11-win season.

9. Numbers

-10. For 16 years Pat Fitzgerald has stressed Northwestern wins close games by stressing ball security and takeaways. In other words, the greater the turnover ratio, the greater chance of Northwestern — many seasons not as physically-gifted as other Big Ten teams — winning games.

It’s no surprise then that in Northwestern’s worst season in nearly 2 decades, the Wildcats are 124th in the nation in turnover ratio (-10), 123rd in turnovers lost (21), and 102nd in turnovers gained (11).

10. Quote to note

Illinois coach Bret Bielema: “There’s literally nobody on our roster that played through normal means. So the only two guys that played at Michigan so far on our roster are Artur Sitkowski, who played when he was at Rutgers. And Chase (Brown), who played while he was at Western Michigan. So, nobody on our current roster.”