Every Tuesday, Matt Hayes tackles the 10 hottest topics in the Big Ten …

1. The B1G Story

When I first reached out to Phil Longo about leaving North Carolina and joining Wisconsin, he response was classic Mike Leach.

“Bringing the Air Raid to Wisconsin,” Longo said. “Should be a wild ride.”

And exactly what Wisconsin needs.

Years ago, Longo got his first job as a head coach at a high school in his native New Jersey, and drove 11 hours to Kentucky to listen to Leach speak to coaches about the Air Raid.

Over the years and during a nomadic ride through the NCAA lower division then finally to FBS and Power 5 football, Longo and Leach often spoke and bounced ideas off each other.

Leach, who passed away suddenly last month, would’ve loved his former assistant bringing the Air Raid to the epicenter of Crawl Ball.

Wake up, Wisco. Things will be different next fall. Crazy different.

As in, crazy efficient and proficient — and maybe even the paradigm shift moment the Badgers need to push them to and over Ohio State and Michigan.

TCU, which also runs the Air Raid, beat Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl Playoff semifinal under first-year coach and Leach disciple Sonny Dykes. The Horned Frogs won 5 games in 2021, and were playing for a national title on the last day of the college football season.

“A long way from the offense being called a gimmick,” Dykes said. “Most everyone either uses it, or uses principles of it.”   

Before Mack Brown returned to college football in 2019, he called around and asked about young coaches. He knew offense — specifically, the vertical passing game — was quickly taking over the sport.

“Nearly everyone I spoke to said go look at the guy running the Ole Miss offense,” Brown said.

That guy was Longo.

Four years later, UNC quarterbacks accounted for 16,694 yards (1,707 rush) and 157 touchdowns (24 rush). That’s an average of 39 touchdowns and 4,173 total yards a season.

And 31 interceptions in 52 games.   

“(Longo) is unbelievable,” UNC All-ACC quarterback Drake Maye said earlier this year. “He has an answer for everything.”

Maye redshirted in 2021, and midway through his first season at North Carolina, NFL scouts were already regularly attending practice to watch a quarterback many believe could be the No.1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

By the end of this season, Maye had 5,019 total yards (698 rushing) and 45 TDs (7 rush) — and only 7 interceptions in 517 attempts.

While it may not look like that in Year 1 at Wisconsin, it will be much closer than you think.

And the rest of the Big Ten better get ready to deal with it.

2. Can it work in the cold?

You know how many times Mike Leach heard that one?

About as many times as he heard, “Will it work in the SEC?”

It’s not exactly balmy weather in West Texas in November. And it most certainly snows regularly in Pullman, Wash., in November.

In a 4-year stretch from 2015-2018, Washington State won 37 games under Leach. In a 4-year stretch from 2005-2008, Texas Tech won 37 games.

The Air Raid set records at those schools under Leach, and it can do the same under Longo at Wisconsin — especially with new Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell’s history of strong defenses supporting the offense.

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The one thing Leach lacked at all of his coaching stops was an elite defense. There were pockets of seasons with success, but nothing like what Fickell could bring.

“I don’t think I’ve seen an Air Raid team yet that can play consistent winning defense,” an SEC coach told me. “If you can’t run the ball, the offense puts a lot of stress on the defense.”

This Air Raid ride begins and ends at quarterback, and despite what you may have heard, the run game is a legitimate factor (more on that later).

It didn’t take long for Fickell to sign off on SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai. He’s in the fold, and he’ll be part of Longo’s 15 practices of drastic change this spring.

Mordecai has accounted for 76 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, and will instantly and significantly upgrade the quarterback position at Wisconsin. The days of Mertz and Coan and Hornibrook and Stave are long, long gone.

They’ll work over the summer months and develop a chemistry between quarterbacks and receivers, and before you know it, there will be balls flying all over Camp Randall — and more important, points ringing on the scoreboard in an era of offense-first football.

3. The Raid on Wisconsin, The Epilogue

Before old school Wisconsin fans begin to panic and hyperventilate, understand that Longo’s offense is more downhill run focused.

Really, it is.

In 4 seasons at North Carolina, Longo’s offenses rushed for 10,190 yards for an average of 2,548 yards a season — or 196 yards per game.

Wisconsin rushed for 179.7 yards per game this season, and over the past 4 seasons, averaged 197.2 yards per game.

Longo’s version of the Air Raid has many of Baylor’s downhill run principles from the Art Briles’ days. Those teams ran more than they threw, and Longo’s North Carolina teams ran nearly 60 percent of the time.

Fickell and Longo aren’t giving up on what turned Wisconsin from a Big Ten laughingstock nearly 30 years ago, to one of the Big Ten’s most consistent winners.

They’re just refining it, and bringing it into the 21st Century.

4. Will he or won’t he?

With Kliff Kingsbury’s firing in Arizona on Monday, there are now 5 NFL head coach openings.

That means 5 jobs for the Michigan administration to fade in order to keep coach Jim Harbaugh. It didn’t help that Harbaugh’s statement of commitment last weekend didn’t exact sound like a coach who won’t listen to NFL offers.

Harbaugh’s verbiage of “I expect” to be the Michigan coach, and “no one knows what the future holds” left him with plenty of wiggle room to find the right NFL job.

Numerous NFL personnel I’ve spoken to say if Harbaugh gets the right situation, they expect him to leave for the NFL. What situation?

“He won’t put himself in a situation where he’s not aligned with the general manager,” an NFL scout told me. “He went through that in San Francisco. It won’t happen again.”

5. The Weekly 5

Ranking the 5 current jobs openings in terms of value to Harbaugh:

1. Broncos: Hello, Russell Wilson.

2. Colts: No. 4 overall pick means drafting his quarterback.

3. Panthers: Owner willing to spend to win.

4. Cardinals: Will have new GM, but how does QB Kyler Murray respond to knee injury?

5. Texans: An absolute mess of a franchise. Why not start at the bottom and work your way up?

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible Big Ten player. This week: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

“I saw all I needed to see in 2021. Smooth, fluid, explosive. A deceptively strong guy who can go up and get the ball. Tough guy, can go over the middle and has big, strong hands. There will be some who will question the (hamstring) injury, but he’ll be almost 7-8 months from that thing when he’s working out for his Pro Day. I suspect you’ll see the same explosive player then. I also suspect at some point in the season, he decided to shut it down. And I don’t blame him.”   

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: post-bowl season grade.

1. Michigan: A-. Think about this: 2 pick-6’s, and 2 botched possessions inside the TCU 5 in the Fiesta Bowl — or a 28-point difference.

2. Ohio State: A-. A few plays away from the biggest non-championship game win in the BCS/CFP era.

3. Penn State: A-. Losses to Michigan and Ohio State can’t overshadow another 11-win season in Happy Valley.

4. Purdue: B-. Thought we’d get more from both QB Aidan O’Connell and coach Jeff Brohm.

5. Illinois: B-. 4 losses in final 5 games stained an otherwise strong season of moving into the upper half of the conference.

6. Minnesota: B-. Would love to see an elite quarterback at Minnesota. Until then, more 8- or 9-win seasons.

7. Maryland: B-. Terps took a step forward in 2022. Defense got marginally better.

8. Iowa: C. An average grade for an A defense and an F offense.

9. Wisconsin: C-. Fired coach in the first month of the season. What do you expect?

10. Michigan State: D. A step back for the Spartans under coach Mel Tucker. Defense must get better.

11. Nebraska: D. Huskers played hard under interim coach Mickey Joseph — and it still led to losses.

12. Rutgers: D. Quarterback play was an F. The rest of the team, including an underrated defense, was better.

13. Indiana: D. A huge void at quarterback is never a good thing.

14. Northwestern: F. The only win was essentially gifted to the Wildcats in the season-opener against Nebraska.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Is the Big Ten really that far behind the SEC? — Cary McCoy, Columbus, Ohio.

Cary:

Ohio State and Michigan aren’t behind. The rest of the Big Ten, however, has some work to do.

It’s not the skill payers on offense or quarterbacks. It’s the same thing it has been for years: elite defensive linemen. Speed on defense that can run down any play.

The game favors offenses now, and the best way to disrupt offenses is on the defensive front. Run game, pass offense; the defensive front controls it all.

A couple of week ago, and SEC coach told me the 1 thing that separates the SEC from everyone else: protect the quarterback and affect the quarterback.

Translation: In the era of pass offense, the SEC protects the most important position on the field better than anyone, and it affects that same position on defense better than anyone.

9. Numbers

1. All of the rehab work being done by new Nebraska coach Matt Rhule is impressive. Considering the circumstances, he has built a strong 2023 recruiting class that’s currently ranked No. 25 by the 247Sports composite.

He also has his eye on the No. 1 recruit in the 2024 class: QB Dylan Raiola, the nephew of Nebraska offensive line coach Donovan Raiola — and son of former Nebraska legend Dominic Raiola.

Dylan Raiola decommited from Ohio State last month, and Rhule has zeroed in on Raiola as not only the centerpiece of his first rule recruiting class in 2024, but of the program moving forward.    

10. Quote to note

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh: “As I stated in December, while no one knows what the future holds, I expect that I will be enthusiastically coaching Michigan in 2023.”