Everything you need to know about Big Ten football ahead of the 2023 season.
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Last year marked the 25th anniversary of Michigan’s most recent national championship, one of the longest active droughts among schools that can still plausibly claim to be competing for one. And for most of it, there was good reason to believe it might be the year the drought would end.

Coming off an out-of-nowhere Playoff run that wildly exceeded expectations in 2021, the ’22 Wolverines looked like a team on a mission from the start. They rolled through the regular season, outscoring their first 13 opponents by nearly 4 touchdowns per game with only one legitimately close call along the way. They crushed Penn State by 24, Michigan State by 22, and, most emphatically, Ohio State by 22 — in Columbus this time, with Michigan’s best player reduced to a spectator.

They cruised through the Big Ten Championship Game like the perfunctory affair that it was, and into the Playoff with plenty of gas in the tank and the big prize squarely in their sights. All that stood between them and their destiny in the CFP Championship Game was an overachieving, happy-to-be-here outfit from TCU that the Wolverines were widely expected to dispense with in the same fashion they had nearly everyone else up to that point.

You know what happened next.

As historic upsets go, Horned Frogs 51, Wolverines 45 in the Fiesta Bowl is not going to go down alongside, say, Appalachian State in the Big House in 2007 in the annals of all-time shockers. (Depending on where you looked, Michigan was favored over TCU by somewhere between 7.5 and 9.5 points.) In the grand scheme of Michigan football, though, it stands to leave just as deep a scar, and potentially deeper for as long as the “Years Without a National Championship” clock continues to tick.

In a generation’s worth of blown opportunities, it was the worst yet: A high-stakes flop in a game the Wolverines were actually expected to win, which had never been the case in any of their long-running series of disappointments against Ohio State, or in their 2021 semifinal beatdown at the hands of Georgia, when they were the ones cast in the role of the underdogs in over their heads. It’s one thing to get run out of the stadium by a superior team with higher expectations. When you assume you are the superior team, the L hits different.

For once, Michigan in ’22 was supposed to be the bully when it mattered. But the result was the same: Wait till next year, again.

How many more next years do the Wolverines have under Jim Harbaugh? This offseason has been relatively quiet on the Harbaugh beat compared to the previous 2, both of which were dominated by speculation that he was on his way out under two very different sets of circumstances. Two years ago, Harbaugh narrowly saved his job following a 2-4 record in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season by agreeing to overhaul his staff and accept a reduced salary. (In retrospect, using the COVID season as a basis for making long-term decisions was an even worse idea than it seemed at the time.) Last year, following the unexpected triumph of 2021, he was all but ready to go house shopping in Minnesota before an apparent deal to become head coach of the Vikings fell through.

Harbaugh dismissed the dalliance as a “one-time thing,” and subsequently signed a contract extension to remain in Ann Arbor through 2026. But his assurances didn’t stop him from interviewing with the Denver Broncos in January, and for a journeyman who has never stayed in one place for as long as he’s been in his current job — as a player or coach — there’s a general understanding that the urge to scratch that lingering Super Bowl itch could resurface at any time.

Harbaugh’s year-to-year status is one reason there’s so much urgency to cash in another golden opportunity on his watch in 2023, thereby validating Michigan’s enormous investment in the Harbaugh project. (Not to mention justifying the occasional melodrama that has come with it.) The other, more straightforward reason is that the team is stacked. In a year when all of the usual suspects at the top of the polls are dealing with red flags in one capacity in another (yes, even Georgia; cc: Kirby Smart), the Wolverines arguably check the most boxes of any contender.

The incumbent quarterback, junior JJ McCarthy, is a former 5-star who now qualifies as a seasoned vet in his third year in the program and second as a starter. The running backs, Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, have accounted for more than 4,200 scrimmage yards and 44 touchdowns the past 2 years. They return three of their top 5 receivers, 3 full-time starters from the nation’s most decorated offensive line, and 8 of last year’s top 10 defenders by snap count. They replaced every departing starter except one (WR Ronnie Bell) with one of the top available transfers at the position, including the kicker. Their starting position in the AP poll (No. 2) represents Michigan’s highest preseason ranking since 1991.

That, more than at any other point in the BCS/Playoff era, is what opportunity looks like. If it’s not the last shot the Wolverines are going to get on their current trajectory, from this vantage point, it is very likely to be the best — a reset of last year’s run with what amounts to an older, more determined version of the same team, out to finish the same mission. Unlike some of the other mainstays in the Blue-Chip Ratio, Michigan does not quite recruit at the elite-plus level that allows it to sustain a year-in, year-out, plug-and-play contender regardless of attrition. When this core of players moves on, there’s no guarantee that the next one will command the same lofty expectations, or when the next group might come along that does.

But that core is here, now, with nothing but green lights ahead of its season-defining November tests against Penn State (in Happy Valley) and Ohio State (in Ann Arbor) and no doubt that it’s good enough to pass them. From there, the only question is, if not now, when?

The teams

The frontrunner: Michigan

The Achilles’ heel in the lineup is wide receiver. The most consistent wideout in 2022, current San Francisco 49er Ronnie Bell, was targeted 97 times, more than top holdovers Cornelius Johnson (46) and Roman Wilson (37) combined. Tight end Luke Schoonmaker, who was second on the team with 35 catches, also left for the draft; neglected big-play threats AJ Henning and Andrel Anthony portaled out to Northwestern and Oklahoma, respectively, while no new receivers portaled in. Behind Johnson and Wilson, the only other returning wideout with a college reception is sophomore Tyler Morris, with 3 for 25 yards.

Frankly, the Wolverines could beat most of the teams on the schedule without substantially involving the wide receivers at all. They spent most of their time last year pounding the rock in 2 tight end sets, and added seasoned Indiana transfer AJ Barner to fill Schoonmaker’s position opposite rising sophomore Colston Loveland. They also involved their backs, particularly Donovan Edwards, who’s very capable of stressing defenses out of the backfield and occasionally the slot.

Still, the chemistry McCarthy developed with Bell can’t just be conferred onto the next man up, and at some point an opposing defense will succeed in challenging McCarthy to win a game with his arm. He’s more than capable, as he proved late last year against Ohio State and, to a lesser extent, Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game; conversely, as he proved with 2 crippling pick-6 INTs against TCU, he’s also capable of critical mistakes when forced out of his comfort zone. The fewer options he has that he can really trust, the narrow that zone will be.

The challenger: Ohio State

Across the board, top to bottom, Ohio State still boasts the most talented roster in the conference, if not the country. What else is new — it’s Ohio State. For all the star power everywhere else, the only position anybody in Columbus is really interested in right now is the only one they can’t take for granted: Quarterback. Ryan Day, finally, said redshirt sophomore Kyle McCord will start the opener against Indiana. Devin Brown also will get snaps in the early going. The first 3 games, glorified tune-ups against IU, Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, could serve as low-stakes auditions ahead of a Sept. 23 trip to Notre Dame, when the season begins in earnest. McCord has pole position, but however it unfolds, you can be sure no one is getting graded on a curve.

Naturally, McCord and Brown both come with impeccable credentials as recruits. But the fact that you can bet on both of them to win the Heisman before either has taken a meaningful college snap is purely a reflection of the baseline expectations that come with the territory. The past 3 players to occupy it since Day took over the offense in 2018 (Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and CJ Stroud) were all Heisman finalists who presided over prolific attacks, led the Buckeyes to a Big Ten title or CFP berth, and left early to become first-round picks. An elite supporting cast also leaves little margin for a learning curve. Few college quarterbacks have ever had a better pair of wideouts at their disposal at the same time than Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. (A lot of current NFL quarterbacks probably don’t, either.) Win-now mode is the default setting. If one or the other isn’t on the verge of becoming a household name by the Michigan game, the collective anxiety across the state of Ohio will reflect it.

The dark horse: Penn State

The Nittany Lions, like the Buckeyes, are loaded with proven talent just about everywhere except the most important position. Unlike the Buckeyes, there wasn’t any doubt about who’s going to man it: Sophomore Drew Allar, a former 5-star who Penn State fans are praying takes the offense to another level after 4 years’ worth (!) of the pedestrian stylings of Sean Clifford. At 6-5, 243, Allar is a massive pocket presence, and his frequent cameos last year as a freshman yielded 4 touchdown passes and zero picks in 148 snaps. (All 4 of those TDs came against Ohio U. and Indiana, but still.)

If Allar is a hit, the gap between the Lions and Michigan/Ohio State at the top of the East Division shrinks to a car length, with the Lions gaining fast. On paper, this looks like James Franklin’s best team in a decade at Penn State, with rising 2nd- and 3rd-year stars dispersed throughout the lineup from the 2021 and ’22 recruiting classes alone. A team that young isn’t just thinking big this year, but looking ahead to 2024, too, when the youth movement is really due to pay off. That’s a lofty vision to put on the shoulders of a 19-year-old who’s about to make his first career start, but when they give you 5 stars, it comes with the territory.

The wild card: Wisconsin

How seriously are we taking this Air Raid business? By all accounts, the Badgers are really going for it. New head coach Luke Fickell came up on the defensive side of the ball, but he hired an Air Raid offensive coordinator (Phil Longo, most recently at North Carolina), landed a veteran Air Raid quarterback in the portal (Tanner Mordecai, from SMU), and added a couple of younger Air Raid QBs from Oklahoma and Mississippi State, respectively, to groom for the future. They were all-in on Longo’s system in the spring, and subsequently added to their haul of incoming transfers at wide receiver.

All duly acknowledged. Personally, I’ll believe it when see it with my own two eyes, and even then I might give it another decade or two to really sink in. We are talking about Wisconsin here. A program that has set the old-school tone for the entire Big Ten West, and which as recently as last year still employed a full-time fullback. Badgers football is so synonymous with trench warfare tactics held over from the past century that updating the playbook seems roughly akin to changing the state flag or, like, banning cows.

If they are actually determined to go through with it, they made a sound investment in Mordecai, a 6th-year vet with 24 starts and 72 touchdown passes over the past 2 seasons at SMU. Last November, he was on the winning side of the highest-scoring game in Division I history, a 77-63 barnburner against Houston in which he threw for 9 TDs and ran for a 10th. That’s about as far from the B1G West grind as you can get. If it translates from Texas to the upper Midwest, the rest of the division is not even remotely prepared to keep up.

The doormat: Northwestern

Let’s be honest, Northwestern was a program on the skids on the field long before the hazing scandal that cost coach Pat Fitzgerald his job. Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season — which, again, we generally should in most circumstances — the Wildcats are 3-24 in Big Ten games over their past 3 full seasons, and were outscored in 2021-22 by more than 19 points per game in conference play. Last year they dropped nonconference dates against Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio) before failing to crack double digits in 6 of their last 8 games. Fitzgerald’s last win on U.S. soil was a mid-October 2021 victory over Rutgers, followed by 18 consecutive losses.

From the outside, it seems like a safe bet that the broader disgruntlement within the program was exacerbated by the record, which was about to make keeping Fitzgerald around much longer untenable, anyway. In that sense, Northwestern was probably better off making the change sooner rather than later, and avoiding a future in which Fitz clung to the job indefinitely by pulling off a couple of fluky 8-4 seasons amid a broader pattern of losing. The ’23 team is almost certainly going to be very bad. But that would have been the case with Fitzgerald, too. At least now when it’s over the program can hit reset.

Projected order of finish

Big Ten East

1. Michigan. Thumbs up to Jim Harbaugh for using his first weekly press conference of the season as a platform to advocate for schools sharing revenue with players. Thumbs down to Michigan’s nonconference schedule, which is so non-threatening that Harbaugh felt free to divvy up the interim assignments among 4 different assistants while he serves a 3-game suspension for some random NCAA stuff.

2. Ohio State. While the quarterback competition has sucked up most of the oxygen, the rebuilt offensive line is a looming concern, as well. The Buckeyes return a couple of All-Big Ten guards, Donovan Jackson and Matthew Jones, but the other 3 spots — most notably left tackle, vacated by All-American turned top-10 draft pick Paris Johnson Jr. — all turned over. Typically, you’d expect at least 1 of the new starters to be the next in a long line of blue-chip specimen up front, but for once that’s not the case: One tackle (Josh Fryar) is a former 3-star recruit; the other (Josh Simmons) is an incoming transfer from San Diego State; and the projected center (Carson Hinzman) is a redshirt freshman who didn’t play a snap on offense in 2022.

3. Penn State. Which is more unlikely: That James Franklin has lasted 10 years at Penn State, or that his best teams may still be in front of him?

4. Maryland. The Terps’ win over then-No. 25 NC State in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl last December snapped a 13-game losing streak vs. AP-ranked opponents at kickoff. The skid against teams ranked in the final AP poll, however, remains alive at 17 games and counting dating to the 2018 opener against Texas. They’re getting better at throwing the occasional scare into the top half of the division, but an actual upset would be as shocking as ever.

5. Michigan State. The Spartans lost their starting quarterback, Payton Thorne, to Auburn, and their top 2 receivers, Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed, to Florida State and the NFL, respectively. The defense should be trending up after bottoming out the past 2 years, but if the offense regresses in turn that leaves them in the same place they were in 2022: Struggling to eke out bowl eligibility, and regretting giving coach Mel Tucker such an enormous contract a little bit more each week.

6. Indiana. Time is running out for coach Tom Allen: Since climbing as high as No. 7 in the AP poll 2020, Indiana is 6-19 in its past 25 games with no quick fix in sight. (Yet another pandemic mirage.) The Hoosiers added 23 transfers via the portal, 14 of them on defense to remake a unit that ranked dead last in the Big Ten last in yards and points allowed.

7. Rutgers. Whatever juice Greg Schiano brought to this job when he agreed to come back for a second tour has evaporated. The Knights’ conference record has declined in each of his first 3 seasons, from 3 wins in 2020, to 2 in ’21, to 1 last year. They’re no closer to solving their perennial QB issues, which means they’re no closer to climbing out of the basement.

Big Ten West

1. Wisconsin. I’m skeptical that the new offense will represent as dramatic a shift in philosophy as the “Air Raid” label implies — it is literally impossible to imagine Wisconsin emphasizing shifty skill guys in recruiting over sedan-sized Midwestern linemen who consume 8,000 calories a day — but the mere fact that the words were allowed to enter the discourse surrounding the team seems like a fundamental cultural shift.

2. Iowa. The offense was a laughingstock in 2022, but it’s not as funny when you consider how many games the Hawkeyes could have won with an attack that managed to be simply mediocre. Rather than fire longtime OC Brian Ferentz, the school reduced his salary and renegotiated his contract with a mandate that Iowa must average 25.0 points per game — compared to 17.8 pgg in 2022 — for Ferentz to keep his job. (The FBS scoring average in 2022 was roughly 28.0 points per game, for the record.) But there is no part of the deal that specifies the offense has to be responsible for those points, which at the rate the defense and special teams combine to pick up the slack is one massive loophole. The Ferentz PPG Watch should come down to the wire.

3. Minnesota. Several former Minnesota players told the web site Front Office Sports that, among more serious allegations, players were required to clap whenever coach PJ Fleck entered the locker room, and that if Fleck wasn’t satisfied with the response he’d sometimes leave the room and reenter. That has nothing to do with the Gophers’ chances of finally winning the West, it’s just weird.

4. Illinois. Six starters return from a unit that led the nation in scoring defense, but only 1 of whom plays in the secondary. On the other side, the impact of losing workhorse RB Chase Brown on offense might surpass the defensive losses combined.

5. Nebraska. New coach Matt Rhule inherits an outfit with no remnant of the optimism that greeted Scott Frost to the job 5 years ago, and not much in the way of notable talent, either. The Frost era produced a grand total of 9 draft picks in the past 4 years, only 2 of them prior to Day 3.

6. Purdue. The Boilermakers are a blank slate under first-year head coach Ryan Walters, but there are worse guys to start a rebuild around than incoming quarterback Hudson Card, a former blue-chip signee from Texas. Purdue has always been at its best throwing the ball early and often. Now they just need to identify someone to throw it to.

7. Northwestern. The Wildcats had little going for them before they fired their head coach under sordid circumstances, and even less after. The goal this season is to get on to the next one with a minimum of embarrassment.

The players

MVP: Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

As a freshman, Harrison was notable mainly for sharing a name with his dad, one of the most decorated receivers of all-time. As a sophomore, he was a full-blown revelation: An unrivaled combination of size, body control and flawless hands that made him a weekly highlight machine throughout the season. Eighteen of Harrison’s 77 catches in 2022 were of the contested variety, per PFF, making him not only one of the nation’s productive receivers but also the most viral, by far.

The Buckeyes will be ruing the hit that knocked Harrison out of their 42-41 Playoff semifinal loss to Georgia for as long as their thirst for a national crown goes unquenched. Would Ohio State have hung on to its double-digit lead if he’d finished the game? Impossible to say. But up to that point UGA hadn’t had any better answers for Harrison than the overwhelmed secondaries of the Big Ten: He had 106 yards and 2 touchdowns in 3 quarters. The blame for OSU subsequently getting outscored 18-3 in his absence in the 4th quarter lies mainly with the defense. (Along with possibly the most clutch timeout ever called.) Anytime the margin in a game of that magnitude is that thin, though, a variable as big as losing the nation’s premiere wideout is inevitably going to linger.

Offensive POY: Michigan RB Blake Corum.

For decades, a star running back volunteering for a 4th year on campus has been almost unheard of. Since 2000, exactly 2 draft-eligible RBs coming off a consensus All-America season have opted to stay in school: Wisconsin’s Montee Ball in 2012, and now Corum in 2023. (Go ahead and add Travis Etienne and Najee Harris in 2020 to the list, too, although neither met the All-American criteria in 2019; the point still stands. As a rule, a decorated, veteran back is as good as gone.) In Corum’s case, his decision to return to Michigan was explicitly about finishing what he started as a junior, before an ankle injury sidelined him for the Wolverines’ last three games. By deferring an NFL payday, he is quite literally as invested in winning a national championship as any player in the country.

To that end, his numbers are largely beside the point. Prior to the injury, Corum was among the national leaders at 132.5 rushing yards per game, and ended the season as PFF’s highest-graded player at any position (96.2). This year, the priority is ensuring he’s available for the winter grind, which likely means a larger role for the more-than-capable Donovan Edwards. If that’s what it takes to keep him on the field against Ohio State and beyond, sacrificing some fraction of the stats is a small price to pay.

Defensive POY: Illinois DL Jer’Zhan Newton

There are a few ways to explain how Illinois managed to field the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense in 2022, some of which, yes, involve competing in the offensively challenged Big Ten West. At the top of the list, though, there’s Newton, who leveled up from nondescript run-plugger as an underclassman to one-man wrecking crew on all fronts. He was elite against the run, finishing as the Big Ten’s highest-graded run defender at any position, and as a pass rusher, generating a conference-best 59 QB hurries. In the official stats, his 13 tackles for loss tied for the B1G lead among interior linemen.

All-America voters, faced with a surplus of worthy d-linemen to choose from, responded with a snub. But with all of the dudes who earned votes ahead of him currently on NFL rosters, this time around Newton is starting out at the front of the queue.

Most exciting player: Penn State RB Nick Singleton

The highest-rated back in the 2022 class, Singleton is the kind of talent best measured in the megatons: An elite combination of size, power, and breakaway speed in one highly explosive package. As a freshman, he averaged 6.8 yards a pop with 12 touchdowns and 9 runs of 30+ yards on just 156 carries — tied for the fewest of any player nationally who hit the 1,000-yard mark. Oh, and he took a kickoff to the house, too, for good measure.

Beyond the highlight reel, Singleton has some typical freshman stuff to iron out. He lost 3 fumbles, wasn’t heavily involved as a receiver, and like a lot of big-play threats he tended to be a bit boom-or-bust; in Penn State’s 2 biggest games, losses to Michigan and Ohio State, he averaged a meager 3.2 ypc with a long gain of 9. He also figures to share touches again with fellow sophomore Kayton Allen, keeping both of their stat lines relatively in check. Thus ends the caveats. If you’re putting money on any player to go all the way on any given play, Singleton is the best bet in America.

Breakout player of the year: Michigan CB Will Johnson

The Wolverines kept the gem of their 2022 recruiting class under wraps as long as they could, but once Johnson finally broke into the starting lineup in November it was obvious he wasn’t coming out again until his time on campus is up. In the last 5 games, he had 3 interceptions, held his own vs. Ohio State’s fleet of NFL-ready wideouts, and ended the season with the top overall PFF grade of any true freshman defender in the country. A fluid athlete at 6-2, he checks the “length” box with room to spare. Typically, an up-and-comer who breaks that late in Year 1 isn’t due to arrive on the All-America track until at least Year 3; in Johnson’s case, he already looks like he’s well ahead of schedule.

Fat guy of the year: Penn State OL Olu Fashanu

At this fledgling stage of his career, it’s fair to say Fashanu remains a work in progress: He wasn’t an especially touted recruit, his first season as a starter was cut short by an injury, and by PFF’s accounting, he has a long way to go as a run blocker. But left tackles don’t get paid anymore to run block. They get paid to protect the quarterback, and on that front the scouts took one look at his 2022 tape and agreed by consensus that he has as bright a future as anyone playing the position.

Fashanu didn’t allow a sack over 8 games, earning a second-team All-Big Ten nod from league coaches despite missing the entire month of November — both feats for a redshirt sophomore who came into the season with minimal name recognition and (more importantly for his draft stock) didn’t turn 20 years old until December. With a little experience and a clean bill of health, he has “top-10 pick” written all over him.

Most valuable transfer: Iowa LB Nick Jackson

Iowa’s outgoing middle linebacker, Jack Campbell, was a unanimous All-American who went the 18th pick in the NFL Draft despite playing a position that’s supposedly declining in value. Enter Jackson, a 5th-year transfer from Virginia whom the Hawkeyes are counting on to fill one of the conference’s biggest voids. A second-team All-ACC pick in 2021 and ’22, he arrives with more career starts (33), snaps (2,305) and tackles (354) than any other active Big Ten defender. He also ranked among the ACC leaders each of the past 3 seasons in PFF’s “stops” metric, which it defines as tackles that represent a “failure” for the offense based on down and distance. Jackson’s not going to follow Campbell as a first-rounder — he’s listed as 4 inches shorter, for one thing, and not as comfortable in coverage — but he should be right at home in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten West.

Sleeper of the year: Minnesota DB Tyler Nubin

Minnesota allowed the fewest touchdown passes in the country in 2022, and subsequently lost a pair of 5th-round draft picks on the back end. The best of the bunch, though, was Nubin, a second-team All-Big Ten pick who likely would have gone higher if he’d declared. Instead, he opted for another round on campus courtesy of the free COVID year, putting him on the short list of the nation’s top returning safeties. His 7 interceptions over the past 2 seasons (3 in 2021, 4 in ’22) are tied for the most of any returning FBS player.

Best name: Penn State DB King Mack
Honorable Mention: Michigan RB Cole Cabana … Maryland OL Delmar Glaze … Nebraska QB Chubba Purdy.