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Week 10 Big Ten picks against the spread are in as we get set for the stretch run in November! And for those closely watching the B1G race, we could get some key separation in Happy Valley this weekend.
Ohio State and Penn State will face off in a matchup to keep pace with the other leaders in the conference. Though the Buckeyes have a loss, they will face 2 other undefeated teams in Penn State and Indiana in November with a shot to get back to Indianapolis.
Meanwhile, James Franklin is still in search of getting his signature win with the Nittany Lions, and delivering in this one could be mammoth. A win Saturday would put Penn State on the cusp of the Playoff while also continuing a shot at a B1G title as well.
Outside of that game, the trend of teams in 2+ time zone games remains something we are monitoring. The home teams in such matchups went 3-0 outright and ATS in Week 9 with USC, Indiana and Oregon all delivering wins by double digits.
Those results bring home teams in 2+ time zone games up to 14-5 outright and 13-6 ATS. Two more of those games will be played this weekend as Oregon travels to the Big House in Ann Arbor while UCLA will face Nebraska in Lincoln.
Let’s get to the picks!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 9 results: 4-4 ATS (Season record: 43-42)
Minnesota (-3) at Illinois
- PICK: Illinois +3
Minnesota has seemingly found its stride in a 3-game winning streak. On the other hand, Illinois has been all over the place in the past 3 games. (Yes, I understand the Illini won 2 of those.) The big aspect of this one? Illinois is coming off a West Coast trip to Oregon and is already down its top RB and could be without Pat Bryant on the outside. By contrast, Minnesota’s 3-headed dragon of Max Brosmer, Darius Taylor and Daniel Jackson has been powering the Gophers of late.
Northwestern (-1) at Purdue
- PICK: Northwestern -1
Purdue is looking for its first B1G win of the season, and if the Boilermakers don’t capitalize here, they’re looking at a winless season. I’m not a major believer in Northwestern — at all. But the Wildcats have at least won some close games.
Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State
- PICK: Penn State +3.5
You know the major storylines. James Franklin and Ryan Day both need to get the monkey off their backs, though this game feels more “better not lose” for Day than a “must-win” for Franklin. What am I watching in this one? Jim Knowles vs. Andy Kotelnicki will be major when Penn State has the ball, especially if Beau Pribula is starting. But I’m also monitoring Chip Kelly and Ohio State’s offensive line vs. Abdul Carter and Co. The only thing I would find shocking in this final outcome is if either team wins by more than 3 points.
Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State
- PICK: Indiana -7.5
Michigan State has improved under Jonathan Smith, but the Spartans still have trouble finishing drives. And turning the ball over. Curt Cignetti hasn’t had those kinds of troubles, even with the Hoosiers changing things up to put Washington away in Week 9. Indiana is tied for 2nd in the B1G at +8 turnover margin and also came up with a pick-6 last week. This one screams Hoosiers, even on the road.
Oregon (-15) at Michigan
- PICK: Michigan +15
Don’t get your hopes too high, Wolverines fans. It’s unlikely Michigan finds a path to an upset, especially with the way the team was outgained and out-possessed by Michigan State. The pick here ultimately boils down to Oregon hitting the road and Michigan still having a few tricks teams haven’t seen yet from the 2-QB system. Don’t be surprised if Oregon gets a late score to cover, but I think Dan Lanning’s game plan — on the road — will allow to go with Michigan here.
UCLA at Nebraska (-6.5)
- PICK: Nebraska -6.5
I don’t want to be too harsh on UCLA because the Bruins have improved seemingly every week this season. That’s good news for DeShaun Foster. But I think the matchup here is a bad one for UCLA. Nebraska’s defense showed it more than had a pulse after getting embarrassed by IU while shutting down Ohio State. I think the Huskers put the bowl-game drama to bed right away to kickstart November with a statement win.
USC (-2.5) at Washington
- PICK: Washington +2.5
Lincoln Riley is 0-3 this season outright as a road favorite. We could dive into more issues, but that’s what this one hinges on.
Wisconsin at Iowa (-3)
- PICK: Iowa -3
The Heartland Trophy is a very intriguing one. Historically, it has been very evenly matched with the Badgers holding a 49-46-2 all-time lead. But in recent history, the final score has not been especially close. The last 4 games have all been decided by 9+ points, meaning you have to go all the way back to 2019 until you find a game decided by less than a touchdown. Both teams have flaws this season, but I think Iowa turning the QB spot to Brendan Sullivan is a nice wrinkle at a key moment. It could give the Badgers some issues.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.