Week 11 Big Ten picks against the spread
Week 11 Big Ten picks against the spread are here as we settle in for another weekend of football!
With just 4 regular-season Saturdays remaining, fans also have a better idea of the outlook for the College Football Playoff with the initial CFP rankings dropping this week. From the B1G, there were 4 teams in the initial field with Oregon and Ohio State leading the way at No. 1 and No. 2 overall and joined by Penn State and Indiana.
All 4 of those teams play this week in a weekend with just 6 games on the docket. The results of those games will play a major role in the B1G race and outlook for the Playoff.
As for our trend teams traveling 2+ time zones, home teams in such games went 0-2 outright and ATS in Week 10. Oregon delivered a blow out win over Michigan while covering the number in the final minute of the game, and UCLA delivered a stunning win over Nebraska in Lincoln.
Those results bring home teams in 2+ time zone games up to 14-7 outright and 13-8 ATS. Week 11 will see 3 more games across 2+ time zones played, including Oregon putting its No. 1 ranking on the line.
Now, onto some picks!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 10 results: 4-4 ATS (Season record: 47-46)
Iowa (-6) at UCLA
- PICK: Iowa -6
This was a tougher pick for me than others might think. UCLA has seemingly improved every week under DeShaun Foster. But Iowa has rounded into form on both sides of the ball, including a defense that produced some shaky results early in the season. The bottom line? Phil Parker’s defense will travel, and Brendan Sullivan will make the defense respect him just enough to carve out lanes for Kaleb Johnson.
Minnesota (-6) at Rutgers
- PICK: Minnesota -6
Coming into the season, this looked like the Athan Kaliakmanis Revenge Game with Rutgers poised to make a serious run at an elite season. Instead, the Scarlet Knights are on a 4-game losing streak, and Kaliakmanis has 2 touchdowns to 4 interceptions in that stretch. In contrast, Minnesota is playing tough football at home and on the road. I don’t think this game will faze the Gophers as they hit the number late to put this one away.
Purdue at Ohio State (-38)
- PICK: Purdue +38
Purdue has 2 losses by more than 38 points this season. I don’t expect the Boilermakers to challenge Ohio State at all, but that line just looks way too big at this point in the season. We know Ohio State wants to build some depth, and I think they’ll make some early changes to preserve key contributors with a lead in hand. No upset is coming, but I don’t think it’s a 38-point margin.
Michigan at Indiana (-14)
- PICK: Indiana -14
Michigan is 1-4 ATS in the past 5 games played while Indiana is 8-0 ATS and 5-0 ATS at home this season. I understand the historical nature in play here with the Wolverines traditionally dominating the Hoosiers. But that’s the only angle Michigan can lean on in this game. Injuries are mounting, the offense is ineffective, and Indiana has been among the best in the country on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers are chasing history, too, as this team needs 1 win to become the first in program history to win 10 games. And, if Curt Cignetti keeps his group focused here, it would go a long way toward a potential Playoff bid.
Maryland at Oregon (-25)
- PICK: Oregon -25
Maryland as given up 37+ points in 3 B1G games this season. The Terrapins must also travel coast-to-coast, and Oregon is not interested about playing down to any competition. Also, remember Oregon’s late touchdown in the blowout of Michigan? I don’t have a problem with it, but I also don’t buy Dan Lanning’s reasoning about watching for Michigan’s timeout when it was clear the Wolverines weren’t going to use it. Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks are playing for jugulars, and they’ll roll here.
Washington at Penn State (-13.5)
- PICK: Penn State -13.5
Washington is 0-3 on the road this season. Traveling into a primetime White Out, and facing an angry Penn State squad, is not the recipe to buck that trend. The Nittany Lions have allowed some lesser competition to hang around in games, but James Franklin now knows they just need to maintain the faith to reach the Playoff. Style points are not necessarily needed. But Penn State will probably look for a few.