Week 4 Big Ten picks against the spread
Week 4 Big Ten games are here! After getting through the first 3 weeks, many teams will wrap up the nonconference portion of the 2024 season this weekend.
Meanwhile, other teams are venturing into the conference slate, including a ranked matchup between No. 24 Illinois and No. 22 Nebraska on Friday night. USC and Michigan also prepare for a marquee matchup.
As for Tradition’s B1G picks, we reach Week 4 with an even .500 record against the spread intact. While that might not sound impressive, it’s a good spot to be in as we get to the tail-end of the nonconference slate. The goal here is to get that number into the positive before we enter the B1G games on a regular basis.
So, without further ado, let’s get into last week’s numbers and our picks for the week ahead.
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 3 results: 4-6 ATS (Season record: 18-18)
Illinois at Nebraska (-8.5)
- PICK: Illinois +8.5
I like Nebraska. I mean, really like what Nebraska has done to start the season on both sides of the ball. However, Illinois has been equally impressive. Consider that last season Nebraska (132nd) and Illinois (122nd) were among the worst teams in the country in turnover differential. Through 3 games this year, Illinois is tied for 2nd nationally with a +8 turnover margin. I think the Huskers are fine to take outright this weekend, but the 8.5 number is a bit too big.
Ohio State (-39.5) vs. Marshall
- PICK: Ohio State -39.5
Ohio State is coming off a bye week and looking to wrap up its nonconference slate without any issue. The Buckeyes are healthy and should hit the ground running against Marshall. Look for the 2nd-string units to finish this one up early in the 2nd half, but I doubt it impacts the Buckeyes hitting the number.
RELATED: Ohio State is still tracking as a major national title contender with DraftKings listing the Buckeyes at +340. Fans can use Tradition’s Ohio DraftKings promo code to get started.
Indiana (-28.5) vs. Charlotte
- PICK: Indiana -28.5
Fans probably are beginning to realize Indiana will not be the same old IU they are accustomed to with Curt Cignetti at the helm. As for Charlotte, the program has just 1 win on the season, and it was a squeaker vs. Gardner-Webb. Considering what we saw from the Hoosiers last week, I will ride the hype train even with a large number in play.
Penn State (-48.5) vs. Kent State
- PICK: Penn State -48.5
Kent State is among the worst teams in the entire country and is giving up points at a 49.66 per game clip. Don’t be scared about Penn State and the mega number after the Nittany Lions struggled against Bowling Green. James Franklin’s team had a bye week to iron out some kinks
USC (-5.5) at Michigan
- PICK: USC -5.5
Michigan is changing QBs. But one might wonder why Sherrone Moore didn’t get Alex Orji meaningful snaps before the B1G opener vs. No. 11 USC. This one ultimately boils down to whether you think Miller Moss can find any success against Michigan’s defense. I think he can, provided he stays away from Will Johnson. A win here elevates the Trojans into realm of true contender while a loss for No. 18 Michigan paints a bleak picture for the season.
UCLA at LSU (-24)
- PICK: LSU -24
UCLA just laid a major dud at home vs. Indiana. If Kurtis Rourke can shred the UCLA defense in the Rose Bowl, I shudder to think what awaits the Bruins in Baton Rouge when Garrett Nussmeier rolls onto the field.
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (-3.5)
- PICK: Rutgers +3.5
Rutgers hits the road for the first time this season after acing 2 easy tests at home. It should be a tough ACC matchup against VT, and I think the potential is there for this one to be decided by a 4th-quarter drive and field goal. Whether the Scarlet Knights are the team kicking that game-winner is debatable, but I’ll definitely take Rutgers +3.5 here.
Northwestern at Washington (-10.5)
- PICK: Washington -10.5
Washington has no one but itself to blame for the Apple Cup loss to Washington State. The penalties were just too much to overcome. However, Northwestern has not looked great against a non-FCS team yet this season, and the Wildcats travel to the West Coast. Washington should win big and get back on track in Week 4.
Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota
- PICK: Iowa -2.5
I get it, the Hawkeyes struggling through the first half vs. Troy matters. But Cade McNamara actually finished that game with strong numbers. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson is also on a tear to start the season. Even accounting for Minnesota to slow Johnson down a bit, I don’t believe the Gophers have the offense to gash Iowa for a few big plays which has been a problem early on. It could set up as a classic Kirk Ferentz 2-point win, but I’ll still take the Hawkeyes at -2.5 to reclaim Floyd.
Michigan State at Boston College (-6.5)
- PICK: Michigan State +6.5
Michigan State and Boston College have looked solid, including Boston College delivering a strong outing vs. Mizzou. However, I think this game has the chance to swing on the arm of Aidan Chiles. He’ll do enough to keep the Spartans close on the road, but he’ll also produce a costly mistake to keep MSU away from the outright win.
RELATED: The Spartans are underdogs on the road in their final nonconference game of the season. Be sure to track all the odds for the B1G slate with Tradition’s Michigan sportsbook apps.
Purdue at Oregon State (-4.5)
- PICK: Oregon State -4.5
How does Purdue account for a horrific home performance vs. Notre Dame? Traveling to Oregon State isn’t the best way rebound, even if the Beavers are no longer in a power conference. Ryan Walters has a mess on his hands, and it will be at least another week before he finds some positivity.
Maryland (vs. Villanova) unlisted.