Week 6 B1G Primer: Top-5 showdown in Iowa City is a chance to legitimize the Big Ten

Everything you need to know about this weekend’s B1G slate.

Game of the Week: No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa (-2.5)

The stakes

The obvious answer here is remaining in the top 4 with control of one’s own destiny to a Big Ten Championship Game berth and a spot in the College Football Playoff. The loser will surely stay in the top 10 and have the door open toward both of those ultimate goals, but it will need some help moving forward.

Looking at Iowa (5-0), this game is critical for its CFP hopes. While it has already played 2 teams that were ranked in the top 20 at the time (No. 17 Indiana and No. 9 Iowa State), both have fallen out of the rankings and probably won’t be returning. It’s conceivable that when it’s all said and done, the Hawkeyes could wind up having the easiest schedule of all the CFP contenders. I don’t see a single team outside of Penn State that is a lock for 8 wins. Someone has to finish second in the Big Ten West, but which team do you feel confident in right now? One of Iowa’s remaining opponents (Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska) will probably be over .500 when they face the Hawkeyes, but it’s possible that none of them will be.

That’s actually the opposite for Penn State (5-0), which has 4 of its final 7 opponents ranked in the top 11 of this week’s AP poll. The Nittany Lions can probably afford a loss, because they’ll have the chance to make up for it and build a strong resume.

Looking at the bigger picture, though, this is a showcase game for a conference that usually is dependent on Ohio State. In fact, it’s the first regular-season Big Ten game featuring 2 top-5 teams that doesn’t include Ohio State since 1997. I’m not sure if anyone outside of B1G country is taking these teams seriously quite yet, so a well-played game will go a long way in improving the narrative surrounding the conference.

The (misleading) stat: Iowa is last in the Big Ten in total offense

If ever there was a misleading stat, this is it. Iowa is no offensive juggernaut, but it is certainly not the worst offense in the Big Ten. It’s probably one of the best, given what it has to do.

The Hawkeyes’ average halftime lead is over 12 points. They have led their 2 Big Ten games by a combined score of 65-10 at halftime. When you basically are trying to not commit turnovers and run the clock out for half the game, the numbers aren’t going to be flashy. Because Iowa’s defense is so good and has set up the offense so well, the calculation has to be a little different. What is the objective? Turn those takeaways into points and make the opposing offense earn it against a great defense.

Iowa has scored on 16 of its 19 red-zone trips this season (6th in the B1G), with a TD on 52 percent of those trips (8th in the B1G). In my estimation, Iowa is squarely middle-of-the-pack when it comes to offenses in the Big Ten.

The Hawkeyes are coming off a game in which they racked up 428 yards, including 283 through the air. Spencer Petras has been fairly criticized over the last year and a half, but he is playing his role extremely well this season — and he’s getting better. He has just 1 interception this season and 3 in his last 11 games.

The bottom line is that the Hawkeyes have won 11 straight with him as the starter. And with the run game sputtering the last 3 weeks, he has thrown for over 200 yards and completed at least 65 percent of his passes.

Why does it matter? Because Iowa’s offense is going to get brought up over and over when discussing its CFP chances, especially by naysayers who want to keep Iowa out.

The key matchup: Sean Clifford vs. Iowa’s defense

If you haven’t realized it by now, Iowa turns over everyone. Taulia Tagovailoa entered last week having played the cleanest 4 games in the country, with 0 turnover-worthy plays according to PFF. He threw 5 interceptions. Iowa leads the country with 12 interceptions, and it has given some accomplished QBs nightmares.

While Sean Clifford has taken excellent care of the football this season with just 3 INTs, turnovers were a big issue for him last year. He threw an interception once every 27.8 pass attempts in 2020. The good news is that this season, that has improved to once every 51 pass attempts. And he has faced good defenses, as both Wisconsin and Auburn are in the top 25 nationally.

Penn State has struggled to run the ball, averaging less than 4 yards per carry. If that trend continues and the Nittany Lions have to attack through the air, that’s asking an awful lot of Clifford. If he finds a way to get the ball to Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington without turning the ball over, Penn State can pull this off.

The big question: Which offense can crack the other’s elite defense?

Iowa and Penn State are No. 2 and No. 3 in the country, respectively, in points allowed this season, so this obviously isn’t going to be a shootout. Iowa hasn’t given up more than 24 points since late in the 2018 season, a span of 27 games. Penn State hasn’t allowed more than 20 all season. The over/under is 41, which is the lowest among Power 5 games this week. It’s going to be one of those classic Big Ten battles, where churning out a couple first downs to flip the field could be classified as a win. This is a game where punting will be OK, because it’s not a turnover.

With such evenly matched teams, there are going to be a few plays that decide this game. Maybe Tyler Goodson or Noah Cain breaks a long run. Maybe Dotson gets free deep for a big one. Maybe Iowa forces a turnover, and Petras can find Sam LaPorta in the red zone. It won’t take a bunch of those plays to win, but it will take a few. When those red-zone opportunities arise, do you trust Petras or Clifford?

The verdict

The spread at the time of this writing is 2.5, which means Vegas believes these teams are basically even when accounting for the fact that the home team usually gets about 3 points. I’m of that same belief, though I would lean Iowa on a neutral field. That’s why I’m taking the Hawkeyes to win and cover.

– – –

• Iowa 24, Penn State 20

No. 11 Michigan State (-5.5) at Rutgers

Michigan State (5-0) has to be feeling great about its offense, because if Ohio State didn’t exist (which is a big hypothetical, I know), the Spartans could potentially go from worst to first in just 1 year in terms of total offense in the B1G. But defensively, Michigan State has to pick it up if it wants to stay in the top 15. It allowed 560 yards to Western Kentucky last week after allowing 440 each to Nebraska and Miami. Rutgers (3-2) is a get-right game for this defense.

– – –

Michigan State 28, • Rutgers 27

Maryland at No. 7 Ohio State (-20.5)

Boy, this matchup looked a lot more enticing 2 weeks ago. But after Maryland (4-1) flopped against Iowa and Ohio State (4-1) looked like, well, Ohio State, I have no confidence that this game is going to be close. This could be the start of an absolute terror from the Buckeyes, who clearly have the most talent in the conference but have taken a back seat in the media due to the undefeated starts of 4 B1G teams. If Ohio State keeps the pedal to the metal, it could put up 60.

– – –

• Ohio State 52, Maryland 24

Wisconsin (-10) at Illinois

While Wisconsin (1-3) could be playing a backup QB who has thrown 4 INTs in 20 career attempts, this is still a terrible matchup for Illinois (2-4). The one thing that the Illini do well — run the ball — is the area that the Badgers excel at stopping. Wisconsin’s rush defense is the best in the country.

Maybe the Illini can use the element of surprise, as Josh McCray and Chase Brown each have a 150-yard game to their name, and both occurred in the last 2 weeks. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz, who was knocked out of the loss to Michigan after a vicious shot to the ribs, is listed as questionable. Either way, Wisconsin should roll in a game against former head coach Bret Bielema.

– – –

• Wisconsin 28, Illinois 10

No. 9 Michigan (-3.5) at Nebraska

I’m expecting this game to be terrific.

Two high-profile coaches at historic programs who are just trying to live up to the lofty standards of the 1990s, with two passionate fan bases. As far as West teams go, Nebraska is playing better than anyone outside of Iowa, and that fan base has to be thrilled at the possibility of finishing second.  But the Huskers still have only 1 Power 5 win, and it was against Northwestern, which might be the worst team in the Big Ten.

Michigan has tried to stay under the radar, but this is another showcase game on ABC in primetime. Will the Wolverines show up on the road in front of a sellout crowd?

– – –

• Michigan 31, Nebraska 27

Scoreboard

Week 5 record: 8-0 straight-up / 6-2 vs. spread
Season record: 48-8 straight-up / 33-22-1 vs. spread