Week 9 Big Ten picks against the spread
Week 9 Big Ten picks against the spread are finalized as we get set for another packed weekend across Friday night and Saturday.
This time, we hit the final weekend in October in what has already been a year to remember for college football. Three teams (Oregon, Penn State and Indiana) are undefeated, and all 3 play this weekend.
As readers likely remember, one particular item we’ve been tracking this season includes the performances of home and away teams in games involving opponents separated by 2+ time zones. Week 8 produced a surprising turn of events as road teams went 2-1 outright with UCLA and Oregon winning.
USC was the lone road team across 2+ time zones to lose, and that came as the Trojans were a healthy road favorite at Maryland. As Lincoln Riley’s struggles continue, home teams in 2+ time zone games are now 11-5 outright and 10-6 ATS.
In Week 9, there will be 3 more 2+ time zone games, including Indiana playing host to Washington and ESPN’s “College GameDay.” It’s a weekend of epic proportions on deck, so let’s get the picks rolling!
All lines are featured via bet365.
Hammer’s Week 8 results: 4-3 ATS (Season record: 39-38)
Rutgers at USC (-14)
- PICK: Rutgers +14
This pick has me between a rock and a hard place. After starting 4-0, the Scarlet Knights have seemingly forgotten how to play complementary football and must now trek across the country. Meanwhile, the Trojans have also lost 3 straight and have zero idea how to close out games. With all the factors in play, and both teams closer on paper than USC would like, I’ll take the Scarlet Knights keeping it (somewhat) close at the buzzer.
Nebraska at Ohio State (-25.5)
- PICK: Ohio State -25.5
The mystique is gone from Nebraska’s hot start to the season. The Huskers have faced 2 ranked teams in the B1G and have given up a total of 87 points and lost both games. Now, Matt Rhule has to take his team on the road to face an angry Ohio State team that had a bye to stew in its first loss of the season? Simply put, it’s a recipe for disaster — for the guys from Lincoln — because these are the kinds of games that Ryan Day doesn’t lose. And traditionally, it’s a blowout for the Buckeyes.
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Washington at Indiana (-6.5)
- PICK: Indiana -6.5
Indiana is the flavor of the year in college football, but a crucial injury to starting QB Kurtis Rourke could shake things up. However, I’m looking past that injury to the rest of the offense. Specifically, physical receivers capable of winning 1-on-1 battles and a rushing attack that is 24th nationally with 5.31 YPC. Rourke undoubtedly plays a role in the balance of the offense, but some trust has to be placed in Curt Cignetti’s staff working with the QB room and keeping the game plan fresh on a week-to-week basis. That’s why I’m not putting too much stock in Washington getting a bye week to prepare. And the fact that this game is really a 9 am PT kickoff for the Huskies.
Illinois at Oregon (-21.5)
- PICK: Illinois +21.5
While Oregon fans will certainly debate how Autzen Stadium stacks up against Beaver Stadium, I’m treating this matchup similar to Illinois’ trip to Penn State earlier in the season. The Illini were able to hang around, and 3 touchdowns feels rich here. Dillon Gabriel’s 4 interceptions this season have all come across the past 4 games, and the Illini are rocking a +7 turnover margin. Even if Oregon wins — big — the Ducks have fallen short when it comes to covering most of their big lines this season.
Maryland at Minnesota (-4)
- PICK: Minnesota -4
Maryland secured the wild come-from-behind win against USC last week, but I have to consider the rest of this season for the Terrapins (and the struggles of the Trojans). On the flip side, Minnesota has played well in just about every B1G game of the season. Considering the Gophers get this one at home, off the bye, it’s hard not to like PJ Fleck’s group in this one.
RELATED: Maryland swung a major comeback while upsetting USC in Week 8. Find the best offers to get in on this week’s game with Tradition’s best MD sportsbooks around!
Northwestern at Iowa (-14)
- PICK: Iowa -14
Iowa and Northwestern are among the B1G leaders in turnover margin, but there’s one key difference: Scoring points, and Iowa is actually 9th in the B1G this season with 27.9 points per game while the Wildcats are 17th with 19 points per game. Combine those numbers with Iowa’s 4-1 record at home, and this sets up as a perfect bounce-back game for Kirk Ferentz.
Michigan State at Michigan (-4)
- PICK: Michigan State +4
At the risk of putting too much stock in Michigan State’s home win over Iowa, I’m going all-in on the Spartans. And a lot of it has to do with the variety of question marks for Michigan. Will Johnson’s status is questionable, other Wolverines have been banged up this season, and the inability to pass the ball … ever … has brought the ground game back to Earth. In fact, the Wolverines do not even have a clear starting QB for Saturday. For anyone who has forgotten, this is Week 9. Aidan Chiles could swing this game in Michigan’s favor with some ill-timed throws, but I think the Spartans found some momentum against Iowa.
RELATED: It’s time for The Paul Bunyan Trophy to be up for grabs! Head to Tradition’s Michigan sportsbook apps to get in on the action.
Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin
- PICK: Penn State -6.5
Wisconsin is on a 3-game winning streak. However, those 3 wins came against teams that are a combined 2-10 in the B1G. It is true the offense has been better with Tawee Walker as a workhorse back, and Camp Randall Stadium still has some teeth in primetime. Still, I don’t see a way Penn State doesn’t run away with this one in the 2nd half, even if the Badgers keep it close for a while.