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It comes once every year.
Upset Saturday. It’s like an unofficial holiday in college football that can be celebrated on any given weekend. We never know the when, who or how, but as sure as Christmas comes on December 25, Upset Saturday will rear its head.
Looking at Saturday’s B1G schedule, it could make an appearance in the Midwest as early as this weekend.
The games in Week 6 may not look like much on the surface, but several of the B1G’s ranked teams are entering some dangerous matchups. Here is a quick glimpse of the conference games featuring the four top-ten squads:
- Maryland vs. No. 10 Ohio State
- No. 4 Penn State vs. Northwestern
- No. 9 Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
- Michigan State vs. No. 7 Michigan
Could one of those teams — maybe even a couple — fall this weekend?
Here’s are the chances each underdog has to pull off a stunner this Saturday and really shake up the B1G, and national picture.
Maryland vs. No. 10 Ohio State
Upset chance: low
D.J. Durkin can talk all he wants about how much more confident the Terrapins are this year as opposed to last season, but the fact is there’s still a considerable talent gap between Maryland and Ohio State.
Maryland does own the B1G’s third-best rushing attack and Max Bortenschlager showed substantial improvement against Minnesota last week. The Buckeyes are just too powerful, though. Too many weapons offensively for an average Terrapin defense to keep in check.
The final score might not be 62-3, but the chance of Maryland leaving Columbus with a win is as close to zero as it gets.
No. 4 Penn State vs. Northwestern
Upset chance: moderate
Considering how poorly Northwestern performed against Duke and Wisconsin, you’d probably believe there’s no chance the Wildcats could stun Penn State at Ryan Field on Saturday. But counting Pat Fitzgerald out, especially with the talent on the roster, would be a sin.
Stopping Saquon Barkley, Trace McSorley and the plethora of talented wide outs is a pretty tall order for Northwestern’s defense. If Fitzgerald’s defense can find a way to eliminate big plays — much like Iowa did two weeks ago — this might be a game heading into the fourth quarter.
Northwestern has underperformed in its first four games, this team is capable of being competitive with some of the best in the B1G. Fitzgerald has pulled off some impressive upsets during his time in Evanston and the Wildcats have a decent shot to score another one against Penn State.
No. 9 Wisconsin vs. Nebraska
Upset chance: moderate-to-high
Everything says this is going to be a lopsided win for Wisconsin. The Badgers have an unstoppable running back in Jonathan Taylor and one of the stingiest defenses in college football (again). Tanner Lee has been a turnover machine and the Huskers haven’t really gained much traction offensively.
But something just feels like Wisconsin should be on upset alert. Maybe it Nebraska’s 20-game win streak at home under the lights. Maybe it’s the fact that the 1997 national championship team is being honored. Maybe it’s just a simple belief that Mike Riley’s team finally puts together a complete game.
Nebraska’s offensive line has to play well, Lee can’t turn the ball over and the Huskers have to be able to establish a rushing attack. Basically, the Huskers have to play a perfect game. While that may seem impossible, anything can happen at Memorial Stadium under the lights.
Michigan State vs. No. 7 Michigan
Upset chance: high
After a 17-10 win over Iowa, it’s safe to say that the Spartans are heading in a more positive direction. Michigan has obviously been one of the top defensive teams in the country. It should make for a really entertaining matchup in prime time.
Both offenses have had their struggles in the early portion of the season, which probably means scoring will be a rare occurrence in Ann Arbor. But with Brian Lewerke having that dual-threat capability, he could present some problems for Michigan’s defense.
The Spartans also possess the best defense the Wolverines have seen to this point in the season. That could be an issue for a team that’s struggled to cross the goal line this year.
Michigan has more talent on both sides of the ball, but Michigan State seems to have its edge back. That blue-collar, hard-nosed mentality is going to give the Spartans a real shot to pull off the upset on Saturday. As we saw in 2015, get this game into the fourth quarter and anything is possible.
Dustin grew up in the heart of Big Ten country and has been in sports media since 2010. He has been covering Big Ten football since 2014. You can follow him on Twitter: @SchutteCFB