Which coaches historically out-perform expectations during the NCAA Tournament?

The 2024 NCAA Tournament will officially begin later this week.

As fans are filling out their brackets and making their bets, here’s a question worth considering: Which coaches have historically overachieved during the NCAA Tournament?

Thanks to BartTorvik’s PASE metric (performance against seed expectations), there are clear answers to that question. That metric shows the number of wins a coach has earned above (or below) seed expectations in a given timeframe.

Here are the 3 active coaches in this year’s Big Dance who have overachieved the most in the NCAA Tournament according to PASE since 2000:

Tom Izzo, Michigan State

Games coached: 70
Overall record: 49-21
PASE: 15.4

Tom Izzo has a well-earned reputation as this era’s best coach during March, and this metric more than backs that up. Izzo is far-and-away the overall leader in this stat entering this season. Since 2000, he’s made the second weekend of the Tournament a staggering 6 times from the 5-seed line or worse. Overall, he has 7 Final Four appearances since 2000.

Michigan State is a No. 9 seed in this year’s tournament and will face Mississippi State on Thursday. Izzo’s bunch is favored by 1 point against the Bulldogs, per DraftKings. Also at DraftKings, the Spartans are currently +2500 to make the Final Four and +350 to make the Sweet 16.

John Calipari, Kentucky

Games coached: 62
Overall record: 46-16
PASE: 10.1

Even with Kentucky’s recent loss to Saint Peter’s as a No. 2 seed, John Calipari grades out extremely well in this metric. In fact, Calipari is ranked No. 1 overall in this metric since 2010 when he arrived in Lexington. Since his first season at UK, Calipari has led the program to 4 Final Four appearances and 1 national championship.

Kentucky is a No. 3 seed in this year’s tournament and once again has Final Four aspirations. The Wildcats are currently +700 to make the Final Four and -140 to make the Sweet 16, according to the latest odds from Bet365.

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Mark Few, Gonzaga

Games coached: 64
Overall record: 41-23
PASE: 3.3

Mark Few is 21st overall on the list of highest-achieving coaches, but all of the names above him have either left college coaching (Roy Williams and Billy Donovan, for example), didn’t make the tournament this year (Chris Beard, Rick Pitino) or don’t have a big enough sample size (Hubert Davis). But that shouldn’t take too much away from Few’s NCAA Tournament record, which is genuinely impressive. Gonzaga has made every NCAA Tournament since 2000 and has played for 2 national championships in that span.

Gonzaga is a No. 5 seed in this year’s tournament and will face Will Wade’s McNeese State in the first round. The Bulldogs are favored by 6 points against McNeese State and are -270 on the money line, according to Bet365. That same book has Gonzaga at +160 to reach the Final Four.

Other notes

Hubert Davis ranks 3rd amongst all coaches involved in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and 15th overall with a PASE of 4.3. Davis was not included in this list because he has only coached in 6 total NCAA Tournament games — and they all took place during the 2022 tournament when Carolina reached the national final as a No. 8 seed.

Although the above list dates back to the 2000 NCAA Tournament, it doesn’t change much if you only include the last decade of results. Over the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, these are the highest-ranked coaches in PASE who are also involved in this year’s Big Dance: Dana Altman (6.3 PASE), Izzo (4.8), Davis (4.3), Calipari (4.2) and Few (3.5).

The biggest under-achieving coaches in this year’s field since 2000 are Tony Bennett (-7.7 PASE), Jamie Dixon (-6.1), Matt Painter (-4.6), Rick Barnes (-4.4) and Shaka Smart (-3.8).