You ask for upset specials here, and I am to please. I gave you Purdue as an outright winner last week against No. 23 Boston College, and the Boilermakers delivered. That raised the Upset Alert record to 2-2, which is quite good, all things considered, when chasing the underdogs to win outright.

Week 5 is interesting, for one reason. Truth be told, I started writing this story nearly two months ago.

The back story? When you try to predict every team’s record way back in early August, it can really be a challenge. Ohio State was the preseason favorite in the Big Ten, but I went in a different direction. I predicted a couple of losses for the Buckeyes, including Saturday night’s epic White-Out showdown at Penn State.

So this upset special, I have had it circled for a while.

Now that game day has arrived, I do have one question: Can I get a mulligan?

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My logic for Penn State winning was that the combination of home field advantage — which is huge on a noisy Saturday night — and the edge with quarterback experience would be enough for the Nittany Lions to pull this off. Now, I’m not so sure.

Do I really want to still pull the trigger on the Lions?

Here are the lines and starting times for Saturday’s Big Ten games:

  • Indiana (-17) at Rutgers, Noon ET
  • Central Michigan at Michigan State (NL), Noon ET
  • Purdue (-3.5) at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Michigan (-14) at Northwestern, 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State, 7: 3p.m. ET

It’s a light schedule with five teams on a bye this week, so pickings are slim. I’m curious with the Purdue-Nebraska game, because it’s just hard to wrap my head around Nebraska still being winless. But I think Purdue is about to get on a roll, so I’ll pass there. Same with Indiana and Michigan, those look like mismatches right now.

So that leaves me just one situation. Do I stick with my Penn State leanings, even though Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins has erased all of my concerns about his ability to be a star?

Do I really think Penn State is the better team? No, I do not.

Do I think Penn State can still win Saturday night in this big showdown?

Yes, yes I do.

I keep flashing back to Ohio State’s last huge Big Ten road game under the lights, when the Buckeyes traveled to Iowa with a College Football Playoff spot still on the line last November. Ohio State got thrashed, 55-24, and showed a lot of vulnerability in a hostile environment. They aren’t perfect, by any means.

The Lions will win this game, just like they did in 2016. Maybe it will take another freak play to do it, but I will stay true to my August logic and call it. I’m thinking it’s a shootout, though. I’ll take Penn State, 38-34.