The game was circled on the Upset Alert calendar for more than a month, and I felt good about it that Penn State could knock off mighty Ohio State at home last Saturday. They came close as a 3.5-point underdog, losing 27-26 in a tremendous environment in Happy Valley.

So, yes, that’s a loss for me on the Upset Alert scoreboard, falling to 2-3 on the season. (But that’s four wins in a row now versus the number, not that it matters since it’s just for fun, right?)

So on to Week 6 we go, with six conference games on the schedule. Penn State and Purdue are taking the week off.

Here are the lines for this week’s games:

  • Maryland at Michigan (-17.5), Noon ET
  • Northwestern at Michigan State (-10), Noon ET
  • Illinois (-5.5) at Rutgers, Noon ET
  • Iowa (-7) at Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Indiana at Ohio State (-26) , 4 p.m. ET
  • Nebraska at Wisconsin (-17), 7:30 p.m. ET

That’s a whole lot of big numbers there, and no obvious upset special jumping off. The smallest line is with Rutgers, and I can never go there this year in picking them to win a game, though if it is going to happen, Illinois might be an option.

I rule out Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State, although Indiana always seems to play the Buckeyes tough. That leaves two other games. I have a modest concern about Iowa going on the road for the first time all season, but I think the week off benefits them, and I do think they’re focused on keeping their nose in the Big Ten West hunt. I think they’re just that much better than Minnesota, and I think Iowa’s defense will cause a lot of problems for the Gophers.

So that leaves one game: Northwestern at Michigan State.

The Spartans are 10-point favorites, but there are a lot of things to like about this one to fire up the Upset Alert siren. For instance:

  • Michigan State is the most banged-up team in the Big Ten, with serious depth issues on the offensive line, at wide receiver and in the secondary.
  • Northwestern looked great for a while last week against Michigan and quarterback Clayton Thorson is getting healthier every week.
  • Northwestern has beaten Michigan State two years in a row.
  • Northwestern has a 1-3 record, but the Wildcats are well coached under Pat Fitzgerald and they are a desperate team right now searching for a big win.

With all that, let’s take a shot at Northwestern upsetting Michigan State. It might be a shootout, so I’ll take the Wildcats in a wild 35-33 victory.