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Eight teams are still standing.
Eight flawed teams, because there are no great ones in 2024.
Eight teams with championship potential, because if they didn’t have it, they wouldn’t still be around.
Eight teams with 3 wins standing between them and the ultimate.
So, with this in mind about the 8 teams in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, we’re going to give you 1 reason why each team can absolutely win the national title and 1 reason why each team could be doomed to fall just short.
And we’ll go in descending order of seeds, from the No. 8 seed to No. 1:
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
Why they can: One word — motivation. And that motivation actually started in the first round last weekend, when Ryan Day beat back all the criticism coming from the horrid Michigan loss and his players gave the thousands of Tennessee fans who ventured north a horrible night in the Columbus cold.
That motivation factor will be there yet again in the quarterfinals on New Year’s Day, when the Buckeyes head to the Rose Bowl to face Oregon, which outlasted Ohio State by a point in October in one of the games of the year. The Buckeyes will get what you hardly ever get in college football — a second shot at the same team in the same year. And if they can take out the only unbeaten team still left, well, there will be all the more motivation to finish the job with 2 more wins and once and for all silence Day’s legion of critics who scream to the heavens that he can’t lead Ohio State to a championship.
Why they can’t: One word — pressure. Now, you might say, how could pressure be a hindrance for the team that’s the lowest seed remaining, that’s playing the top seed who’s undefeated, that didn’t even get to its conference title game let alone win it.
Well, that’s the point. We’re talking about Ohio State. The expectations are beyond enormous, every year, and sometimes the expectations get out of control. Just ask ESPN analyst and former OSU quarterback Kirk Herbstreit, who called the faction of fans who wanted Day fired “the lunatic fringe” during the Buckeyes’ victory over Tennessee last weekend. Just because Day answered the critics with 1 Playoff win in the cozy confines of The Horseshoe doesn’t mean he’s answered them for good — hardly. This rabid fan base experienced what Jim Tressel did in 2002 and what Urban Meyer did in 2014, and they want Day to do the same thing, like now. Especially with the best roster NIL money can buy. That means 3 more wins or else it’s a failure.
No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Why they can: Marcus Freeman’s team hasn’t lost since Week 2 because it has mastered what are still the 2 surest paths to winning football games: Running the rock down teams’ throats and playing smash-mouth defense. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are an elite backfield combo, and when you throw in quarterback Riley Leonard’s ability to do damage with his legs, it’s a difficult puzzle to solve even for defensive savants like Kirby Smart, who’ll be tasked with that challenge in the Sugar Bowl.
Yes, the Irish defense took a massive hit this week with the loss of star lineman Rylie Mills, who suffered a year-ending knee injury against Indiana. But the Notre Dame defense has overcome major injuries all season and still thrived, and the Irish did get fellow lineman Howard Cross III back for the Indiana game. This is still a championship-caliber defense.
Why they can’t: This might be a tad unfair, because every team is different. But the Irish aren’t just trying to win that elusive first national title since 1988, they are trying to change the narrative regarding their recent failures against powerhouse programs. There was the blowout loss to Alabama in the 2012 BCS title game, and the non-competitive Playoff semifinal losses to Clemson in 2018 and Alabama (again) in 2020. Georgia, even with its backup quarterback (more on that later), is exactly the type of team Notre Dame hasn’t been able to handle in its recent title pushes. Until the Irish prove otherwise, there will be major skepticism.
No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
Why they can: Penn State might be good enough to win it all on its own merit, but the Nittany Lions really couldn’t have asked for a better draw. They brushed aside an overmatched SMU team in the first round that probably loses to all those 3-loss SEC teams that didn’t get in and probably Miami, too.
Then they get Boise State in the quarterfinals on a neutral field at the Fiesta Bowl. Yes, the Broncos boast one of the best players in the country in running back Ashton Jeanty, but they are still a Mountain West team that doesn’t physically match up well with the Nittany Lions and, well, Penn State being a double-digit favorite tells you what the real experts in Vegas think. Yes, the Nittany Lions would still have to win 2 more games to win it all even if they beat Boise State, but this draw appears to give them a nice head start.
Why they can’t: James Franklin has won a whole lot of games, but how many big games has he won? Does the SMU win count, since Penn State was such a big favorite? It did keep the Nittany Lions’ season alive and all. But skeptical Penn State fans will still be skeptical until Franklin steps up and wins games on the grandest stage, and he might just get his shot in a few weeks.
No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Why they can: If you look at ESPN’s updated Football Power Index, Texas is given by far the best shot of the remaining 8 teams to win the title at 27.2%. Then you look and see that the Longhorns are a 2-touchdown favorite over Arizona State on a neutral field at the Peach Bowl, via DraftKings Sportsbook. These numbers are trying to tell us something and it’s that Texas might be the most complete team in college football. Both of its losses in 2024 are to Georgia, including an overtime loss in the SEC title game.
Logic would tell you if the Horns and Dawgs hook up again (if would be in the national title game), it would be mighty hard for Georgia to solve Steve Sarkisian’s machine 3 times in 1 season.
Why they can’t: With the Longhorns rushing for almost 300 yards in the first-round win against Clemson, quarterback Quinn Ewers only had to manage the game, which is exactly what Texas fans wanted. But what if Texas reaches a point in the Playoff, whether it’s against Arizona State or further down the road, where Ewers has to attempt more than 24 passes, as he did against Clemson? Many Horns fans probably don’t want to imagine that, which is the problem, and what if the talented but relatively inexperienced Arch Manning can’t bail Texas out?
No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils
Why they can: The Sun Devils were picked to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 in their first season in the conference. Then a funny thing happened. Arizona State won the conference title led by 2nd-year coach Kenny Dillingham, and not only will they have absolutely zero pressure in the Playoff, their first-round bye means they only have to win 3 games without the wear and tear of playing a first-round game. In other words, ignore the Sun Devils at your own risk, because they were ignored in their own conference.
Why they can’t: Look, RB Cam Skattebo is a star. And QB Sam Leavitt has been spectacular in his first season as a starter in Tempe after transferring from Michigan State. But redshirt freshman quarterbacks and stages like the one Leavitt is about to step on usually don’t mix well, and Texas’ vaunted defense will be waiting on New Year’s Day afternoon in Atlanta.
No. 3 Boise State Broncos
Why they can: Anytime you have a dynamic player like running back Ashton Jeanty, you have a shot against really anybody, especially this season with no true great team. Jeanty was the Heisman Trophy runner-up for a reason, rolling up 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns. And while he did most of his damage against Mountain West defenses, Jeanty even shredded Oregon in Week 2, running for 192 yards and 3 TDs in a game the Ducks won on a last-second field goal, so he’s done it against the best and that’s what he’ll be asked to do again.
Why they can’t: Yes, they almost took down Oregon in Eugene in Week 2, but Oregon wasn’t Oregon quite yet. Boise State has been running (literally) over a lot of lesser competition for a long time now, and now comes a major step up in competition starting on New Year’s Eve against Penn State. One stunner is possible, but 3 of them over 3 weeks is hard to imagine.
No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
Why they can: They’re Georgia, and these days that means just about all they know is winning. Even in a season like this, when the Dawgs’ offense wasn’t quite as explosive as in years past, Georgia still cranked out another SEC title. Kirby Smart has built a winning culture, and this time of year that’s what usually prevails. Plus, kryptonite Alabama is out of the picture, so don’t be shocked to see the Dawgs playing for it all once again on Jan. 20.
Why they can’t: Yes, Gunner Stockton was a big-time recruit and he’s probably going to win a lot of games in Athens, just like his recent predecessors have. But with Carson Beck officially done for the season after having surgery on his elbow, Stockton is the guy now. Save for 1 bad decision that led to an interception, he stepped in admirably in the SEC title game. And he’s been getting a crash course with lots of extra practice reps, making the Dawgs’ first-round bye that much more crucial. But a quarterback, even 1 as talented as Stockton is, making his first career start in a Playoff quarterfinal game just can’t be expected to reel off 3 wins just like that — even if he does play for Georgia.
No. 1 Oregon Ducks
Why they can: They have Dillon Gabriel, and none of the other 7 teams do. The left-handed Hawaiian rifleman found a home in Eugene this fall after stops at UCF and Oklahoma, and all he did was throw for 3,558 yards and 28 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions. All he did was win, too, leading the Ducks to a 13-0 record entering the Playoff. After missing out on the Heisman Trophy, Gabriel will be hell-bent on finishing his collegiate career with a perfect season and national title — and adding to his many career NCAA passing marks.
Why they can’t: The Ducks have all the ingredients to run the table and go 16-0. But it’s just so hard to go undefeated in this era of college football, particularly with having to win 3 Playoff games like Oregon does instead of 2 as it was in the 4-team Playoff era. Throw in a nasty draw for a No. 1 seed, where the Ducks would potentially have to beat Ohio State, Texas and Georgia, and it just might be a little too tall an order for a team that’s way overdue to lose a game.