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Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff in 2024? Breaking down the betting odds
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Oregon is one of the favorites to reach the College Football Playoff in 2024 as it transitions from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten.
With the College Football Playoff set to expand to 12 teams in 2024, the Ducks will have a prime opportunity to reach the Playoff for the first time since 2015.
Oregon is currently -230 to reach the College Football Playoff, according to the latest odds from bet365. Let’s break down Oregon’s 2024 roster, returning production and schedule to see if there’s enough value on betting Oregon to reach the CFP this season:
Oregon’s 2024 roster and returning production
Oregon made one of the biggest transfer portal additions of the offseason when it added former Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The Sooners didn’t win big with Gabriel under center, but he performed at an elite level for most of his time in Norman. In 2023, Gabriel averaged 9.5 yards per attempt while posting a TD-to-INT ratio of 30-to-6. Even as good as Bo Nix was for Oregon, it’s possible the Ducks won’t take a significant step back at the QB position this fall.
Elsewhere offensively, Oregon returns a total of 6 starers on that side of the ball — including 3 on the offensive line. Dan Lanning and his staff have done a good job in the portal to help fill in the gaps, bringing in the likes of wide receiver Evan Stewart and offensive lineman Matthew Bedford to compete for starting jobs.
Defensively, Oregon was even more active in the transfer portal. The Ducks have signed a total of 8 defensive players out of the portal so far this season, including several potential starters. Oregon’s defensive transfer class is headlined by former Washington cornerback Jabbar Muhammad and former UTSA cornerback Kam Alexander.
Oregon also brought in some reinforcement in the front 7 with defensive linemen Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell joining from Michigan State and Houston, respectively. Jordan Burch, Jeffrey Bassa and Tysheem Johnson headline Oregon’s list of returning starters on the defensive end of the field.
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Oregon’s 2024 schedule
Oregon’s 2024 schedule will obviously look much different as it faces a Big Ten slate for the first time. However, there are some holdovers from previous Pac-12 schedules — including Oregon State, UCLA and Wisconsin.
Oregon’s 2024 slate is headlined by its Oct. 12 contest against Ohio State in Eugene. The Ducks will also face defending national champion Michigan in Ann Arbor on Nov. 2. Aside from those 2 games, Oregon is likely to be a big favorite in the other 10 remaining games on its schedule.
Here’s a look at the full schedule:
- Aug. 31: Idaho
- Sept. 7: Boise State
- Sept. 14: at Oregon State
- Sept. 28: at UCLA
- Oct. 4: Michigan State
- Oct. 12: Ohio State
- Oct. 18: at Purdue
- Oct. 26: Illinois
- Nov. 2: at Michigan
- Nov. 9: Maryland
- Nov. 16: at Wisconsin
- Nov. 30: Washington
In 2 seasons under Dan Lanning, Oregon has an overall record of 22-5. Three of those defeats were to Washington, with the other 2 coming against Georgia and Oregon State.
Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff in 2024?
Looking at recent history, it’s likely that Oregon will need to go 10-2 or better in order to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff (either as the Big Ten’s automatic bid or as 1 of 7 at-large selections). The last power-conference program (excluding 2020) to finish inside the top-12 of the final CFP rankings with a record of 9-3 or worse was Auburn in 2019. Because 1 CFP bid will go to a Group-of-5 champion, teams will likely need to finish 11th or better in order to get an at-large bid.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly updated his SP+ projections last week, and his metrics are bullish on Oregon. The Ducks are ranked 3rd nationally in the latest SP+ update, trailing only Georgia and Ohio State.
SP+ gives the Ducks an 80.7% chance to go at least 10-2 — which would presumably be good enough for a College Football Playoff berth in the 12-team era. That translates to considerable value when compared to the -230 price tag (implied odds of 69.7%) that bet365 is offering on Oregon to reach the CFP.
Using SP+’s 10-2 projection is not a perfect estimate of CFP potential, but it’s close enough for the purpose of this exercise. If you do take SP+’s projection at face value, a bet on Oregon to reach the CFP would carry an expected value of $15.79 (on a $100 wager). That’s more than enough value for me to feel comfortable taking the Ducks to reach the 12-team Playoff in 2024.
PICK: Oregon to make the College Football Playoff (-230 at bet365)
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Related: Will Ohio State reach the College Football Playoff in 2024? If you’re in Ohio, you can take a look at the latest CFP odds by signing up with FanDuel Ohio!
Spenser is the news manager at Saturday Road and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.