Wisconsin vs. Purdue preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Wisconsin will battle Purdue in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Saturday afternoon.

The Boilermakers swept the regular-season series against Wisconsin, but the Badgers kept both games close. Purdue will need to beat Greg Gard’s team for a third time this season if it wants to repeat as B1G Tournament champions.

Let’s break down this matchup:

Wisconsin vs. Purdue Betting Odds

Spread: Purdue -5.5 (FanDuel)

Total: Over/Under 142.5 points (FanDuel)

Betting trends to know for Wisconsin

Wisconsin is…

15-17-1 against the spread
4-0 against the spread in neutral-site games
5-4 against the spread as an underdog
10-11-1 against the spread in Big Ten games

Betting trends to know for Purdue

Purdue is…

16-14-2 against the spread
4-1-1 against the spread in neutral-site games
14-14-2 against the spread as a favorite
9-12 against the spread in Big Ten games

3 notes for the game

Wisconsin’s red-hot 3-point shooting

Wisconsin has been on fire from 3-point range during the Big Ten Tournament. The Badgers shot 16-of-25 from range on Thursday against Maryland. Hitting 3-pointers at a 64% clip was obviously unsustainable, but Wisconsin didn’t see too much of a drop-off in its quarterfinal game against Northwestern. Wisconsin followed it up by shooting 10-of-22 (45.5%) on Friday against the Wildcats.

So how likely is it that this hot streak will continue? Unfortunately for Wisconsin, not very likely.

The Badgers have been pretty good from 3-point range this season, but not close to elite. They’ve made 35.4% of their 3-point attempts on the season entering Saturday’s matchup against the Boilermakers. This is the first time all season that Wisconsin has shot 40% or better from 3-point range in back-to-back games with at least 22 attempts in each contest. Wisconsin simply got hot at the right time.

Purdue has a solid 3-point defense as well. The Boilers have allowed teams to hit 31.8% of their 3-point attempts this year, which ranks 53rd nationally.

How healthy is Braden Smith?

Purdue guard Braden Smith had a scary moment late in Purdue’s win over Michigan State on Friday. He fell awkwardly and appeared to severely injure his knee, but was later able to return to the court to see out the Boilers’ victory.

After the game, Smith told Andy Katz that he hyperextended his right knee but was medically cleared to continue. He finished the game with 5 points, 8 assists and 4 rebounds.

“I’m not trying to be invincible or Superman or nothing. I just want to play for my guys and want to be out there for them. I saw the game getting closer,” Smith said of his decision to return to the game. “They went on that run right there when I went out, so I was like, ‘Man, if I’m feeling fine and nothing’s broke, nothing’s falling off, I’m gonna try to go back in there and help them.’”

Will Smith play on Saturday vs. Wisconsin? He told Katz he plans to play, but it will be interesting to see if the decision gets re-evaluated overnight. Purdue has virtually locked up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and the Boilermakers have bigger goals beyond repeating as B1G Tournament champs. If he’s unable to go, it would have a big impact on the line in this game.

If Smith can play, Purdue’s offense is lethal

Simply put, this is the best offense in the country. I’m not sure Purdue is getting its proper credit for how efficient it has been this season — probably due to hefty amount of skepticism following its opening-round loss in the NCAA Tournament a year ago.

But Purdue has the No. 1 offense in the country, per BartTorvik’s model. The last time Purdue scored fewer than 1.1 points per possession (adjusted for opponent) was Nov. 21 against Tennessee. It hasn’t gone below 1.15 points per possession (adjusted for opponent) since Dec. 29 against Eastern Kentucky when the Boilers played mostly bench lineups in the second half.

Purdue has the No. 1 effective field goal percentage and the No. 2 3-point percentage in the country. It also gets to the free throw line at a top-10 level and has an elite offensive rebounding rate. If Purdue has an offensive weakness, no one has found it yet — and that includes Wisconsin.

The Badgers are 0-2 against Purdue so far this season and have shown no signs of slowing down Zach Edey. However, Wisconsin did keep both games relatively close — it lost by 6 in Madison and by 8 in West Lafayette. If Smith can’t go, that could limit Purdue’s effectiveness offensively enough to make it a close game.

1 pick for this game

Wisconsin +6. I’m pretty skeptical that Smith plays and is 100% in this game. The fall he took was scary, and it would seem to be an unnecessary risk to take given Purdue’s ultimate goals in the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that could reach the Final Four for the first time since 1980 — or perhaps even win the program’s first-ever NCAA national championship. Risking Smith’s health for a Big Ten semifinal doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. But even if he is fully cleared and does play, I think Wisconsin has a chance to cover this line. Purdue, as dominant as it’s been, has not been great against the number this season. The Boilermakers have covered the spread in just 2 of their last 8 games. DraftKings is offering Wisconsin +6 at -110.

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