Illinois will face Morehead State in its first-round NCAA Tournament game on Thursday afternoon.

The Illini are riding high after winning the Big Ten Tournament over the weekend. This tournament marks the 3rd time that Illinois has been a top-4 seed during the Brad Underwood era.

Morehead State made the Big Dance after winning the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The Eagles have won 6 straight games entering this contest. Their most recent NCAA Tournament win came during the 2011 season as a No. 13 seed.

Illinois vs. Morehead State betting info

  • Spread: Illinois -11.5
  • Total: 148.5 points
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To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

  • Illinois: 125.6 (3rd)
  • Morehead State: 109 (124th)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

  • Illinois: 101.6 (93rd)
  • Morehead state: 103.5 (120th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

  • Illinois: 69.9 possessions per game (56th)
  • Morehead State: 64.2 possessions per game (335th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Terrence Shannon Jr. under 23.5 points (-110 on FanDuel)

Betting Terrence Shannon Jr. point-total unders would not have been very profitable this season — and especially not so during the Big Ten Tournament last week. Shannon averaged 34 points per game en route to the conference title, posting a true shooting percentage of 65.5% in those games. I’m fading Shannon here because I expect him to come back down to earth after that explosive Big Ten title run. He shot 45.5% from 3-point range in those 3 conference tournament contests, far above his season average. Morehead State also wants to slow the game down — EvanMiya is predicting 67.9 possessions for this game, which is well below Illinois’ season average.

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Marcus Domask over 16.5 points (-104 on FanDuel)

While I’m taking Shannon’s under, I like Marcus Domask to get to at least 17 points in this matchup. Domask has been shooting it much better lately after a slow start to the year with the Illini. Domask averaged 18.6 points per game on good efficiency during Big Ten play. Illinois was happy to run its offense through Domask for much of crunch time during its Big Ten title win over Wisconsin as he took 11 shots and got to the foul line 10 times.

Riley Minix under 7.5 rebounds (-108 on FanDuel)

Morehead State was the best rebounding team in its conference this year (2nd on the offensive glass, 1st on the defensive glass). Riley Minix was the team’s best rebounder at 9.8 per game. However, Minix didn’t rebound the ball nearly as well against power-conference competition this season. In 4 games against Alabama, Indiana, Purdue and Penn State, Minix averaged 6 rebounds in 29.5 minutes per contest. In only one of those games (against Indiana) did Minix go over the total of 7.5. Illinois was also a very strong rebounding team on both ends this season, ranking 17th in offensive rebounding rate and 59th in defensive rebounding rate per KenPom.

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