Illinois vs. UConn preview: Player prop bet picks

Illinois will top-seeded UConn in the Elite Eight on Saturday night.

The Fighting Illini are just one win away from their first Final Four appearance since 2005. UConn, on the other hand, has been on a historic run. The Huskies have won 9 consecutive NCAA Tournament games by double-digits dating back to their national championship in 2023.

This is a matchup between the 2 most-efficient offenses in the country, according to KenPom. Illinois had been the No. 1 offense through the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but UConn took over the top spot after scoring more than 1.3 points per possessions in its Sweet 16 win over San Diego State.

3 Illinois vs. 1 UConn betting info

Spread: UConn -8.5 (via Bet365)
Total: 155 points (via Bet365)

Illinois was 21-13-3 against the spread this season, making it one of the most profitable teams to bet on in the Big Ten. The Illini were even better as an underdog (albeit in a smaller sample), going 5-1-1 in this spot. UConn was also excellent against the number — the Huskies are 25-12 ATS entering this game.

To help with making predictions in this matchup, here’s some advanced stats via KenPom for both teams:

Opponent-adjusted offensive ratings

Illinois: 126.2 (2nd)
UConn: 127 (1st)

Opponent-adjusted defensive ratings

Illinois: 101.2 (84th)
UConn: 92.9 (6th)

Opponent-adjusted tempo

Illinois: 69.7 possessions per game (67th
UConn: 64.9 possessions per game (319th)

Here are 3 player prop picks for this game:

Terrence Shannon Jr. over 22.5 points (-105 on FanDuel)

I’m going to keep picking this over as long as Illinois remains in the Tournament. Shannon is on an all-time heater. He’s scored 25+ points in 7 straight games — a stretch that even includes a trio of 30+ points contests. Shannon is averaging over 27 points per game since Feb. 10. UConn has an elite defense that will be keyed-in on stopping Shannon, but opponents have been searching for ways to slow him down all season. Nothing seems to work, and I’m not sure the Huskies are going to have any answers either.

Alex Karaban to make 3+ 3-pointers (+158 on FanDuel)

I like this prop at plus-money because we get to combine one of UConn’s biggest strengths (3-point shooting) with one of Illinois’ biggest weaknesses (3-point defense). Karaban takes north of 5 3-pointers a game and hits them at a better-than 38% clip. Illinois’ 3-point percentage defense ranked 13th amongst Big Ten programs this year during league play. The Illini did do a decent job of running teams off the line, as they rank 7th nationally in 3-point attempt rate allowed this season. But that’s skewed by the Big Ten’s refusal to shoot the 3-pointer as a league. This year, Nebraska was the only Big Ten team to rank in the top 125 nationally in 3-point attempt rate. I expect UConn to take advantage of Illinois’ weakness on the perimeter and for Karaban to be a major beneficiary.

Stephon Castle over 13.5 points + assists (-113 on FanDuel)

Stephon Castle is a potential top-10 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft and has been playing very well down the stretch of his freshman season. In 3 NCAA Tournament games so far, Castle is averaging 12.3 points and 2.3 assists per game. He’s gone over this total with his scoring alone in 2 of UConn’s postseason wins so far. Tristen Newton is UConn’s leader in assists, but Castle is also a very capable passer who could play a big role against an Illinois defense that has struggled this season. The Fighting Illini enter this game with the nation’s No. 84 ranked defense, per KenPom’s efficiency metric.

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