Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series concludes with Illinois. Game-by-game breakdowns of the B1G West’s teams appeared this week. Breakdowns of the East’s teams appeared last week.

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Illinois boy Bret Bielema finally came home last year after spending most of his life seeing how green the grass was elsewhere.

The Prophetstown native played at Iowa and served as an assistant there and at Kansas State before his successful 7-season stint replacing Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin. Bielema tried his luck in the SEC at Arkansas from 2013-17, which did not prove to be very lucky. After 3 years working for the New England Patriots and New York Giants, he returned to the Land of Lincoln for a job for the first time since graduating high school in 1988.

Upon arriving in Champaign, Bielema found a fixer-upper.

Lovie Smith didn’t leave a train wreck, exactly, but the Fighting Illini were pretty far separated from anything resembling success. A 6-6 regular season in 2019 was Smith’s only non-losing campaign in 5 years in Champaign.

Bielema came close to getting to that level in Year 1, going 5-7 with a 3-point loss to Maryland, a 4-point loss to Purdue and a 6-point loss to Rutgers.

And frankly, a bowl appearance might not have been as satisfying as the 20-18 win at Penn State that lasted an NCAA-record 9 overtimes. That outcome will do more wonders for program-building than, say, a bowl win over Louisiana Tech.

Of course, in Bielema’s second season the Illini will be happy to face whomever they might come across in a bowl. It’s the logical next step in program progress.

Will there be bowling in Champaign?

Magic 8-Ball says “Outlook not so good.” Illinois is last in the B1G and 122nd nationally in production returning from last season, which typically doesn’t bode well.

But “not so good” isn’t “no.”

In the words of Lloyd Christmas …

Running back Chase Brown was 3rd in the Big Ten with 100.5 rushing yards per game last season. He became just the 3rd Illinois back with a pair of 200-yard performances in a season, joining Howard Griffith and Rashard Mendenhall.

That was behind an offensive line Bielema publicly called out the week before the Penn State game. With perceived improvement up front and a more diverse playbook from new offensive coordinator Barry Lunney, Brown should have more chances to succeed this year.

Some help in the passing game would go a long way in getting more honest looks from opposing defenses, as well.

Tommy DeVito vs. a bleak history

Illinois has finished last in the Big Ten in passing yardage the past 2 seasons, and hasn’t been in the top 10 of the B1G since 2015. The last Illinois quarterback to average at least 235 yards per game was Nate Scheelhaase in 2013.

Enter Tommy DeVito.

Clearly a fan of orange-and-blue color schemes, DeVito transferred from Syracuse this offseason. DeVito has some decent career numbers, passing for 3,866 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Trouble is, multiple injuries have spread that total out over the course of 4 seasons.

If DeVito can overcome a pair of dismal histories — Illinois’ quarterback play over the past decade and his own personal injury history — then the Illini could go bowling.

Why special teams will define Illinois’ success or failure

Illinois has had plenty of issues the past few seasons, but the kicking game has been largely exempt. Kicker James McCourt and punter Blake Hayes gave the Illini 3 seasons of steady work and the occasional highlight.

Who could forget this?

Or this?

For a team that must navigate through the narrowest of margins to reach a bowl game, success in the kicking game will be crucial. Just ask Nebraska how having neither a kicker nor a punter worked out last year.

Week-by-week predictions

Week 0: vs. Wyoming (W)

The Cowboys ran the ball an average of 41.7 carries per game last year. Illinois wasn’t far behind at 39 per game. This game may clock in at a smooth 2:35 if there aren’t too many Barbasol commercials. This would have been an upset alert in the spring — and it still can be if Wyoming controls the clock — but the Cowboys lost a ton of talent in the transfer portal.

Week 1: at Indiana (L)

Double disadvantage for the Illini, who will have nothing on tape of the Hoosiers’ new offense, and a lot on tape from their own new offense. Indiana is putting a lot of emphasis on this game after a down season, and it will pay off for the Hoosiers.

Week 2: vs. Virginia (W)

Virginia fans don’t read this site, so why not pick against the Wahoos?

The Crystal Ball is concerned about the ability of Cavs quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 405 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Illini last year. Very concerned. But being wrong beats hate mail. The Ball has a fragile ego, and therefore picks Illinois.

Week 3: Bye

Week 4: Chattanooga (W)

This won’t be as close as the NCAA Tournament game the Illini probably should have lost to the Mocs back in March.

Week 5: at Wisconsin (L)

Bielema’s first game in Madison since 2012 will be one to forget.

Week 6: vs. Iowa (L)

If the Hawkeyes can upset Michigan in Week 5, this spot is absolutely ripe for the Illini to spring the upset. But the Crystal Ball thinks it more likely that the Hawks will be quite focused after a loss to the Wolverines. Iowa wins its 9th straight against Illinois.

Week 7: vs. Minnesota (W)

Bielema has never lost a game to the Gophers. Why start now?

Week 8: Bye

Week 9: at Nebraska (L)

The Cornhuskers are also coming off an open week, which usually spells doom: Scott Frost has never won a game coming off a bye. But times are changing at Nebraska. The Huskers finally win a game because of the other team’s uncertainty in the kicking game.

Week 10: vs. Michigan State (L)

Look for a late, game-winning touchdown catch from Michigan State tight end Daniel Barker. Barker caught the game-winning touchdown for the Illini against the Spartans with 5 seconds left in 2019.

Week 11: vs. Purdue (L)

Bielema has the right formula for frustrating a team like Purdue, and did so in a game the Boilers pulled out 13-9 last season. But that was also the game where Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell took over mid-game. He hasn’t looked back since, and he’ll be fully prepared this time around.

Week 12: at Michigan (L)

With Ohio State looming ahead, this could be the trap game that gets the Illini closer to bowl eligibility. But it seems much more likely to be the most lopsided loss of the season for Illinois.

Week 13: at Northwestern (W)

Bielema is the type of guy who values rivalries — witness his record against Minnesota while at Wisconsin. He’ll seek the same level of ownership over Northwestern. Illinois ends the season on a good note after a 4-game tailspin.

2022 Projection: 5-7 (2-7), 6th in B1G West

#HTTO

Much like last season at Penn State, it feels like Illinois is bound to win a game it is not supposed to this year. The Crystal Ball is just having the darnedest time determining which game that will be. That, of course, could be the win that gets the Illini bowl-bound.

On the flip side, the Illini may well drop a game they shouldn’t, just like last year’s loss to UTSA. Perhaps Virginia is that team. Or maybe that’s the game Illinois wins that it shouldn’t.

The Illinois program will continue to move in the right direction in Bielema’s second season. But due to the lack of experience returning, that progress probably won’t result in a better record than last season.

Given the work Bielema needs to do in rebuilding the program’s foundation, a bowl game seems more likely in 2023. And with some recruiting wins, perhaps the Illini could have something brewing come 2025. This year is more about not taking a step backward from last year’s progress.