Whether or not you believe in Indiana football heading into its marquee showdown with No. 2 Ohio State at the Horseshow on Saturday, we’re about to find out just how legit Curt Cignetti’s 1st Hoosiers squad really is in arguably the biggest game in program history.

But win or lose, Cignetti has changed everything about autumn in Bloomington.

And he warned us.

When the former James Madison head coach arrived at IU, he spoke about his optimism for his new program.

“I am excited to lead this program forward and change the culture, mindset and expectation level of Hoosier football,” Cignetti said in a statement the day he was introduced. “I want to thank Director of Athletics Scott Dolson and President Pam Whitten, and I look forward to working with both in building something special at IU. Both share my vision and belief that big things are ahead for the IU program.”

For many a head coach, those words are standard procedure on Day 1. But Cig has backed it up thus far. Change indeed has arrived at IU, which went 9-27 in the 3 seasons before his arrival.

Cignetti, who was the 2023 Sun Belt Coach of the Year, guided the Dukes through a seamless transition to the FBS. He finished the 2023 campaign 11-1 and had a 52-9 overall mark at JMU, including 31-4 in conference play, in 5 seasons. Before that, he took over an Elon program that was 12-45 in the 5 years before he arrived in 2017. He went on to record consecutive top-20 FCS finishes.

The coaching acumen has always been there. But to have instant success in the Big Ten? Completely unforeseen.

Skeptics will point to the No. 5 Hoosiers’ strength of schedule, which is the worst in the B1G, per ESPN’s Power Index. The Hoosiers’ best wins are against 5-loss Washington and Michigan. But this weekend presents an opportunity to show the nation that strength of schedule is a mere product of circumstance. Win, and IU will have its most significant victory in program history.

Truly special.

This is a program with the most losses in FBS history: 713. It just so happens that a program in need of a complete makeover was able to find a savior in the form of a 63-year-old who has never had a losing season at any stop and has Indiana 10-0 for the 1st time ever.

His words on Dec. 1, 2023, at Assembly Hall’s center court aren’t so shocking anymore.

“Hey, look, I’m super fired up about this opportunity. I’ve never taken a back seat to anybody and don’t plan on starting now. Purdue sucks! But so does Michigan and Ohio State! Go IU!”

Michigan was victim No. 1. Will OSU be the 2nd one this weekend, and Purdue the 3rd and final one on the last day of the regular season?

There’s no doubt the 2 quarterbacks in Saturday’s showcase will be on center stage. The Hoosiers are very much in the mix for a spot in the College Football Playoff because of Cignetti and his staff, of course. But their offense doesn’t take too much of a back seat. They have scored at least 40 points 7 times, won 9 times by 14 or more points and trailed only twice briefly all season. Kurtis Rourke has thrown just 4 interceptions on 238 passing attempts and is completing 71.8% of his throws. The transfer from Ohio, who tallied 7,666 passing yards and 50 touchdowns across 5 seasons with the Bobcats, will be facing his toughest test yet, though.

Defensively, Ohio State is excellent, ranking 1st nationally according to SP+. They have faced the 3rd fewest deep passes in the country, with just 8.2% of passes defended occurring 20-plus yards downfield. Will Rourke have time to take some deep shots, and will the offense be balanced enough to keep itself in 3rd-and-manageable situations?

On the other side of the ball, Will Howard is enjoying a career year. His 72.9 completion percentage would be a career high, and he has already tied the career high of 24 touchdowns he had last season. Perhaps most importantly, he has cut his interception total from last year in half. The mere threat of him as a runner has helped this Buckeyes offense become even more dangerous. He has been very efficient, and he showed off his deep throws last weekend in the team’s 31-7 win over Northwestern at Wrigley Field.

However, an area of weakness on OSU’s offense is its offensive line’s ability to handle pressure: The Buckeyes rank 91st with a 10.7% sack rate on blitzes. Can the Hoosiers make life uncomfortable for Howard and this offense, which features a bevy of playmakers? Keep in mind that starting center Seth McLaughlin sustained an Achilles’ injury in practice this week and is expected to sit out the rest of the season, per the Columbus Dispatch.

Whatever happens on B1G Noon Saturday, it’s crystal clear this IU team has bought into Cig’s philosophy and his belief in his players. Despite its weaker schedule, IU is a dangerous foe for longtime B1G stalwart Ohio State. The Buckeyes are favored by about 2 touchdowns, so this game essentially serves as a no-lose situation for a Hoosiers team that has already well exceeded expectations.

The problem for the Buckeyes is that this Hoosiers team doesn’t care about point spreads. And based on his past, doubting Coach Cig doesn’t seem like a sharp move.