Indiana has not gotten off to a great start to 2021, and those early results are starting to impact the Hoosiers shot at a bowl game.

In Week 5, Tom Allen’s squad suffered another setback, getting shut out on the road by Penn State. That came one week after Indiana narrowly escaped Western Kentucky.

Making matters even worse, Indiana had starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. leave the loss vs. the Nittany Lions due to a shoulder injury. That injury was to Penix’s throwing shoulder, but it is unclear what his availability might be moving forward.

Now at 2-3 on the year and in the middle of a tough stretch, Indiana is facing an uphill battle to bowl eligibility. According to ESPN’s FPI, the Hoosiers are projected to finish with 4.6 wins.

Indiana is currently favored in just two games the rest of the way – vs. Rutgers and vs. Minnesota – and those are likely no longer easy games with the way the Hoosiers have played. Here is how the rest of the schedule shapes up in terms of win probability:

  • Oct. 16: vs. Michigan State – 37.2%
  • Oct. 23: vs. Ohio State – 12.1%
  • Oct. 30: at Maryland – 45.3%
  • Nov. 6: at Michigan – 10.7%
  • Nov. 13: vs. Rutgers – 59.2%
  • Nov. 20: vs. Minnesota – 59.1%
  • Nov. 27: at Purdue – 40.5%