ESPN’s SP+ gave Indiana an honest assessment of the team’s chances of reaching a bowl game in 2022.

The SP+ projected that Indiana had a 23% chance to make a bowl. Indiana would have to win at least 6 games to guarantee a bowl game bid.

The projection gave Indiana a 77% chance to miss a bowl game. It was broken down by the percentage probability that Indiana would finish with a certain record. The percentage to finish with either a 4-8 or a 5-7 record was 32%. Indiana is currently 3-0 and would need 3 more wins for the rest of the season to make a bowl game.

Indiana was only given 17% to win 6 games. If ESPN’s projection is correct, it would result in a collapse for Indiana. If Indiana finishes with a 4-8 record, Indiana would go 1-8 through the final 9 games. With a 5-7 overall record, Indiana would end the final 9 games of the season with a 2-7 record.

The season started with wins over Illinois, Idaho, and Western Kentucky. The Week 3 win over Western Kentucky was a close game and Indiana managed to survive at home. In 2022, Indiana already has more wins than the team had in 2021. Indiana finished the 2021 season with a 2-10 record.

Indiana will be on the road against Cincinnati in Week 4.