Indiana might not have saved its season with Saturday’s victory against Ohio State.

But a loss might have ended the year, or at least doomed it. Now, after staving off a charge from the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers have reached a potential turning point in their season: The next 5 games — road contests at Rutgers (Tuesday night), Wisconsin and Illinois, with home dates vs. Minnesota and Purdue — will help to determine whether Indiana trends toward the NCAA Tournament come March, or whether it will continue muddling along in the crowded (and not particularly awe-inspiring) middle of the Big Ten.

The 6-point win over Ohio State was a step in the right direction, as it was the Hoosiers’ 2nd Quad 2 victory, joining previous road victory at sub-.500 Michigan. Indiana’s problem through the first half of the season hasn’t been a lack of quality competition, but a lack of victories against them: IU is 0-4 vs. Quad 1 competition, including blowout neutral-site defeats to Connecticut and Auburn and at Nebraska. As of Monday, the Hoosiers’ Net Ranking, a significant factor in NCAA Tournament selection, stood at only 98th in the nation, with 9 of their 11 victories coming against Quad 3 and 4 opponents. Indiana (11-4 overall, 3-1 in the Big Ten) has 16 more games, plus the Big Ten Tournament, to raise the Net into the 50s (or higher), a reasonable marker to be at least on the Big Dance bubble.

Chances are directly ahead. As it stands right now, Indiana will get opportunities to pick up 3 Quad 1 victories (on the road at Illinois and Wisconsin, plus Purdue in Assembly Hall) and 2 Quad 2 wins (at Rutgers and home to Minnesota) between now and Jan. 27. If the Hoosiers can pick up the Q2 wins, plus steal at least one against a Q1, then January could prove to be season-changing.

Veteran Xavier Johnson’s performance against Ohio State proved to be a catalyst, as the point guard scored 18 with 3 assists and no turnovers. It was his 2nd game back from injury, but his 14 minutes at Nebraska 3 days earlier only served to help him shake off the rust of his month-long absence. Johnson isn’t going to routinely hit 2 3-pointers in a game, as he did vs. the Buckeyes, but every bit of perimeter impact helps an IU team that has been woefully inconsistent from the outside. Indiana is averaging only 4.9 made 3-pointers per game, which ranks tied for 338th in the country, with a percentage of makes at only 34 (to rank 172nd).

Undoubtedly, Indiana has solid young frontline, highlighted by sophomores Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware, who combine to average more than 30 points and 14 rebounds per game. But inside presence isn’t enough. It’s a shooters’ game. Only 3 Hoosiers have hit double-figure 3-pointers on the season: Freshman Mackenzie Mgbako, Reneau and guard Trey Galloway, though Galloway’s 12 makes are on only a 26.7 percentage. Johnson is 7-of-12 in limited action this season, so while not a traditionally 3-point shooter, his ability to hit open looks is a boost. The same could be said of the continued emergence of underclassmen guards CJ Gunn and Gabe Cupps. Gunn played a season-high 24 minutes off the bench vs. the Buckeyes, after playing only 14 in the previous 2 games combined, and scored 10 points, including a make in his 2 attempts from the perimeter.

Indiana came into the season with high hopes of taking another step forward, after back-to-back NCAA Tournaments with 1st-round victories. But that’s not been the case so far. Whether it can make a run at a 3rd straight tourney might heavily influenced soon.