Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series wraps up its look at the B1G East with Indiana. Next, we’ll predict every game for every B1G West team. Previously: Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers

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Who are the Hoosiers?

For a fleeting moment, Tom Allen appeared to have the Indiana football program completely unrecognizable from its lovable loser tradition. Granted, in classic IU football fashion, that year was 2020 and few fans were able to witness the magical season in person.

But that was OK, because there was a sense that everything the Hoosiers bottled up from the moment Michael Penix Jr. stretched the ball to the pylon to beat Penn State in overtime could be sustained.

Alas, the most exciting Indiana football season since perhaps 1967 was followed by the most disappointing. The Hoosiers followed their Outback Bowl appearance with a 2-10 season and no Big Ten wins.

Penix was not the same player following yet another knee injury, and got hurt again on top of that. Once the program’s most popular quarterback since Antwaan Randle El, his transfer to Washington this offseason was met with a shrug. Both sides knew they needed something new.

Meanwhile, Penix’s replacements were busts.

Jack Tuttle, Donaven McCulley and Grant Gremel combined for 5 touchdowns and 8 interceptions over the course of 7 games. The versatile McCulley has been recast as a wide receiver, and Indiana turns its hopes to Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak to revitalize a passing attack that ranked 128th nationally in Yards Per Attempt.

Is Connor Bazelak up to the task?

Few transfers in the Big Ten are likely to have more impact on their team’s success than Bazelak.

If he’s the real deal, Indiana will go bowling for the third time in 4 years. If he’s an average quarterback, the Hoosiers will certainly improve on the 2-10 disaster, but maybe not enough to carve out 6 wins. And if Bazelak struggles … well, that is a grim scenario to contemplate.

Flashes of all 3 outcomes were on display in his 2 seasons as a starter at Mizzou, where he completed 66% of his passes for 23 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Bazelak was phenomenal against LSU in 2020, completing 29 of 34 passes for 406 yards and 4 touchdowns. In his final start for Missouri, Bazelak went 10-of-26 for 65 yards and an interception against Arkansas.

Bazelak will attempt to make it work with a very new-look receiving corps. Indiana’s top 3 pass-catchers from last season — Ty Fryfogle, tight end Peyton Hendershot and Miles Marshall — are all gone now. DJ Matthews is back after a season-ending injury ended his 2021 early, but the rest of the group is quite unproven.

Stars — or at least reliable options — must emerge if we’re to see the best version of Bazelak.

The defense is poised for a rebound

Much of Indiana’s 2021 failure was correctly put on an offense that averaged only 17.3 points per game to finish 123rd nationally. That issue was addressed by the hire of former UMass head coach Walt Bell.

But plenty of fault also could be found in a defense that went from allowing 20.3 ppg in 2020 to 33.3 per game in 2021. The defense will also have a new leader in Chad Wilt, who was most recently Minnesota’s defensive line coach.

Despite losing one of the finest linebackers in program history in Micah McFadden, all signs point to a resurgence for the defense as a whole.

There are 7 starters returning, including 2020 all-America cornerback Tiawan Mullen. The Hoosiers were 2-2 when Mullen started a game, and winless when he was unable to due to his ankle injury. Fellow senior Devon “Monster” Matthews also provides a veteran touch at safety.

There is reason to believe this defense will be much closer to the one that had 20 takeaways in an 8-game 2020 schedule than the one that only forced 9 in a full 12-game 2021 season.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Illinois (W)

For the third straight year, Indiana opens the season with a conference game. The past 2 both served as harbingers of things to come — the 36-35 overtime win over Penn State in ’20, and the interception-riddled 34-6 loss at Iowa in ’21. Bazelak will look like the real deal and get ’22 started on the right foot.

Week 2: vs. Idaho (W)

The Vandals have the most underappreciated nickname in Division I. It’s completely badass. The Vandals, however, are just bad. They’ve had 3 straight losing seasons since dropping down to the FCS level. This will be a laugher.

Week 3: vs. Western Kentucky (W)

The Hilltoppers were a tough test at home last season, but this one’s in Bloomington and quarterback Bailey Zappe is in an NFL training camp. Indiana moves to 3-0.

Week 4: at Cincinnati (W)

I have a belief that Indiana would have beaten the Bearcats last year had McFadden not been ejected for targeting. It was a definitive turning point in a close game. With 9 players from that Cincinnati team now in the NFL, Indiana will pull off the upset at Nippert Stadium.

Week 5: at Nebraska (W)

Back-to-back road games, plus Nebraska is coming off a bye week. Seems like a recipe for a loss. But get this — Scott Frost has literally never won a game the week after a bye at Nebraska. The Hoosiers keep that tradition alive and move to 5-0.

Week 6: vs. Michigan (L)

Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff will be in Bloomington for this matchup of unbeatens. By this time, the Hoosiers may even crack the Top 25. Alas, by halftime it will be clear the Wolverines are the only team leaving this game without a loss.

Week 7: vs. Maryland (L)

This Indiana team isn’t built for a shootout, which Maryland’s potent offense will be able to force.

Week 8: at Rutgers (L)

This matchup provided one of the iconic moments of the 2021 college football season.

It’ll be much closer than last year’s 38-3 humbling, but the Scarlet Knights will still pick up the home win.

Week 9: Bye

Week 10: vs. Penn State (L)

Sixth-year man Sean Clifford leads the Nittany Lions to a comeback win in a game that recaptures the spirit of their wild 2020 overtime classic.

Week 11: at Ohio State (L)

Buckeyes offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson will stick the knife in if he gets the chance — and he’ll almost certainly get the chance.

Week 12: at Michigan State (L)

The Hoosiers will be driving for the win late when someone on Michigan State’s defense — Jacob Slade? Cal Haladay? Xavier Henderson? — steps up for a game-clinching swipe or stop.

Week 13: vs. Purdue (L)

After a 5-0 start, Indiana needs to win the Old Oaken Bucket in order to earn a bowl berth. And it looks like the Hoosiers are going to pull it off — until Aidan O’Connell caps his Purdue career with a game-winning drive in the final 4 minutes.

2022 Projection: 5-7 (2-7), 7th in B1G East

#LEO

There’s only one fitting outcome after the most exciting Indiana football season in decades was followed by the most disappointing Indiana football season in decades: the most “Indiana football” Indiana football season in decades.

And the perfect formula for the most Indiana football season would be to start 5-0 before losing out to miss out on a bowl bid. And for the majority of those losses to be in games that come down to 2-3 plays or possessions that make the difference.

Of course, the twist on top is that the Hoosiers would be one of the most improved teams in college football, yet somehow still produce a disappointing outcome. This is the Indiana football curse.

There’s admittedly a chance the Crystal Ball is focusing too much on the past to clearly see the future. Indiana will flirt with bowl eligibility this season, and possibly even get there. But Bazelak and an unproven group of receivers will have to ball out for that to happen.