Caitlin Clark prop bets: Picks, analysis for national championship game vs. South Carolina

Caitlin Clark is set to play her final collegiate game on Sunday afternoon for Iowa.

For the second year in a row, the Hawkeyes are playing in the national championship game. This time, they’re matched up against South Carolina — a team they beat in the Final Four just over a year ago.

When Iowa upset the undefeated Gamecocks last season, Clark turned in a performance for the ages. She poured in 41 points, had 8 assists and grabbed 6 rebounds. It’s the only game over the past 2 seasons that South Carolina has failed to win.

South Carolina led the country this season with a defensive rating of 75.9. The Gamecocks were dominant on that end of the floor all season, and it’s why they’re now in position to pull off an undefeated season for the first time in program history.

Clark and the Hawkeyes led the nation in offensive rating this year at 117.8. Clark averaged a career-high 31.7 points per game as well en route to breaking multiple national scoring records during her senior campaign. She also averaged 9 assists and 7.3 rebounds per contest.

Here’s a breakdown of a few Clark-specific player props ahead of Sunday’s national championship game:

Caitlin Clark points prop

Where to bet the over: FanDuel | 31.5 points | -114

Where to bet the under: DraftKings | 32.5 points | -110

Clark went well under her total of 33.5 points against UConn in the Final Four. The Huskies were much better defensively than LSU was in the previous round and Clark never really got into a rhythm. Given that Clark scored 41 in this matchup a year ago, I’m inclined to take the over. South Carolina let Clark take 31 shots from the field in the Final Four last season, instead choosing to focus on shutting down her teammates. That strategy worked for the most part, but South Carolina’s offense wasn’t good enough to win the game. I think we’ll see the Gamecocks deploy a similar plan in this matchup.

PICK: Caitlin Clark over 32.5 points

Caitlin Clark rebounds prop

Where to bet the over: DraftKings | 7.5 rebounds | +100

Where to bet the under: FanDuel | 7.5 rebounds | -120

Given Iowa’s undersized front court, Clark is a big part of its rebounding efforts. She got to 8 boards in 16 of 38 games this season and posted the best defensive rebounding rate on the team (19.3%). She isn’t much of an offensive rebounder, however, which would have been more useful in this matchup. Clark will be going up against an elite South Carolina front court that finished top-5 nationally in offensive rebounding rate this season. Clark grabbed just 5 defensive rebounds against another elite offensive rebounding team in LSU back in the Elite Eight. Given that Clark plays on the perimeter, she gets a lot of her boards off of missed 3-pointers. But South Carolina is 319th nationally in 3-point attempt rate (25.1%), so there may be fewer of those opportunities than normal. I’d take the under on this prop.

PICK: Caitlin Clark under 7.5 rebounds

Caitlin Clark assists prop

Where to bet the over: DraftKings | 9.5 assists | +105

Where to bet the under: BetMGM| 9.5 assists | -105

As stated above, I expect South Carolina to focus on limiting production from some of Clark’s teammates. Hannah Stuelke, specifically, figures to be a focus for South Carolina in the post. Stuelke scored a team-high 23 points in Iowa’s win over UConn in the Final Four, with many of her points coming from Clark assists.

Here’s what Dawn Staley said about stopping Stuelke at her press conference on Saturday:

“Stuelke is — it’s a matchup that we’ve got to win,” Staley said. “Like, we’ve got to win that one.

“First you’ve got to run in transition. I mean, she gets out, her and Martin, they get out. They get out. They are determined. It was, you know, I will run for a layup. That’s the mentality.”

South Carolina has the size and the motivation to severely limit Stuelke’s production in this game, which would put a pretty hard ceiling on Clark’s assist total in this game. Staley also referenced Kate Martin, who is another capable scorer in Iowa’s offense. Martin and fellow sharpshooter Gabbie Marshall both struggled from 3-point range in Cleveland on Friday night. If that continues, that would also be an issue for Clark’s assist total.

Clark did hit double-digit assists in 21-of-38 games this season — well over half the time. But whether or not Clark hits this total will have much more to do with how her teammates matchup against South Carolina than it will with her. With that in mind, I lean toward the under.

PICK: Caitlin Clark under 9.5 assists

Caitlin Clark 3-pointers prop

Where to bet the over: FanDuel | 5.5 made 3-pointers | -106

Where to bet the under: DraftKings | 5.5 made 3-pointers | +105

Clark was on a bit of a shooting slump going into her Elite Eight game against LSU. In the 7 games prior to facing the Tigers, Clark was shooting just 30.1% from downtown. Then, she appeared to break out of that slump with a 9-of-20 performance against LSU. But against UConn in the Final Four, Clark reverted back to her previous form in a 3-for-11 showing.

Clark attempted 17 3-pointers against South Carolina in last year’s Final Four matchup, but only made 5 of them. The Gamecocks are going to make her work, but ultimately I think they will accept that Clark’s production is inevitable. Clark has hit this total in just 16-of-38 games so far this season, but only once this season has she taken at least 17 3-pointers and failed to make at least 6 (she went 5-of-17 against Nebraska on March 10). If South Carolina gives her the space to take 17+ 3-pointers again, Clark will certainly not argue — and I think she’ll get make at least 6.

PICK: Caitlin Clark over 5.5 made 3-pointers

Caitlin Clark alternate scoring prop

Clark is +430 to score 40+ points at FanDuel. At that price, the implied odds of her hitting 40 points is about 18.9%. That may seem steep, but Clark has hit that threshold in 3 of her last 11 (27.3%) NCAA Tournament games — including in her last matchup against the Gamecocks. Given how South Carolina guarded Clark a year ago, I think this is a prop that warrants consideration ahead of her final collegiate game.

Tipoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday afternoon.