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ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of every game on Iowa’s schedule
By Paul Harvey
Published:
ESPN’s Football Power Index is predicting every game of the 2024 college football season, including the full game-by-game win probabilities for Iowa.
Coming off another 10-win season, Iowa checks in with the 6th-best chance to win the conference per the preseason Big Ten Championship odds via FanDuel. However, the overall makeup of the Hawkeyes lends Kirk Ferentz’s team to a lower outlook on the FPI.
The system has Iowa 38th in the country ahead of Week 1, and the FPI gives the Hawkeyes a projected record of just 7-5. Iowa has just a 1% chance of winning the B1G and a 7% chance of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff.
A key factor in those projections is several games that are projected to be close. 7 of Iowa’s games include win probabilities between 45-60%, meaning the Hawkeyes could find themselves in plenty of one-score games this fall.
Iowa was involved in 6 one-score games a season ago, though Iowa did manage to go 5-1 in those contests. We’ll see if an improved offense can yield similar results this fall.
Here are the full game-by-game win probabilities from the FPI:
- Aug. 31: vs. Illinois State — 92.9%
- Sept. 7: vs. Iowa State — 59.7%
- Sept. 14: vs. Troy — 76.5%
- Sept. 21: at Minnesota — 58.2%
- Oct. 5: at Ohio State — 13.1%
- Oct. 12: vs. Washington — 58.7%
- Oct. 19: at Michigan State — 60.4%
- Oct. 26: vs. Northwestern — 68.4%
- Nov. 2: vs. Wisconsin — 58%
- Nov. 8: at UCLA — 45%
- Nov. 23: at Maryland — 50.5%
- Nov. 29: vs. Nebraska — 59.7%
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Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.