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ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of Iowa State-Iowa rivalry in Week 2

Mark Kern

By Mark Kern

Published:

The 2024 college season is upon us, and Iowa State and Iowa will both be entering Week 2 with a record of 1-0.

The Cyclones defeated North Dakota, 21-3, while Iowa showed some offensive firepower in a 40-0 win against Illinois State.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Hawkeyes a 71.4% implied win probability for the rivalry series. This means the Cyclones are big underdogs on the road with just a 28.6% chance to win.

Quarterback Rocco Becht had a solid first game for the Cyclones, going 20-of-26 for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns. His go to receiver was Jaylin Noel who finished the game with 6 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown.

While Iowa State moved the ball well, the ground game really struggled in the win against North Dakota. The Cyclones rushed the ball 22 times for only 86 yards, and leading rusher Abu Sam III had only five carries.

Don’t look now, but at least for one week, the Hawkeyes offense was the talk of the game in Iowa City. While the defense was its normal dominant self by pitching the shutout, the offense played its best football in some time.
QB Cade McNamara threw for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns in his best game since transferring from Michigan. Running back Kaleb Johnson also provided some balance with 11 carries, 119 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Hawkeyes are favored by 2.5 points at home and the over/under is 36.5 via FanDuel. The 2 in-state rivals will do battle at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Mark Kern