Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Iowa. We’ll continue with the B1G West all week. Game-by-game breakdowns of the B1G East’s teams appeared last week.

* * * * *

Iowa’s season opener ended up being the tone-setter for all of 2021.

The Hawkeyes picked off 3 Indiana passes and returned 2 of them for touchdowns. The snowball was just starting down the mountain.

Despite gaining only 173 yards against Iowa State, the Hawkeyes rolled to another CyHawk win by scoring 20 points off of 4 turnovers. Fumble recoveries inside the 1o-yard line flipped the momentum against both Kent State and Colorado State. Iowa moved to 5-0 with a ludicrous 7 takeaways at Maryland.

And by finishing plus-3 in turnover margin in a top-5 showdown with Penn State, the Hawks rallied for a 23-20 win that put them at No. 2 in the AP poll for the first time since the halcyon days of Hayden Fry and Chuck Long.

But it was only a matter of time before the inevitable happened. Purdue and Wisconsin exposed Iowa’s squirt-gun offense in back-to-back weeks, and the Hawks’ CFP aspirations faded away with 1.7 yards per carry and a cloud of dust.

Thing is, that defense was still good enough to salvage the remainder of the season. Despite ranking 12th in the B1G in completion percentage, Iowa won out and won the Big Ten West.

But the title game against Michigan was a grotesque mismatch. The Wolverines barely broke a sweat in the 42-3 wipeout.

On paper, Iowa looks poised to return to Indianapolis. Ohio State is the only Big Ten team returning a higher percentage of last season’s production.

Unfortunately, the Hawkeyes possess an Achilles heel that prevents that outcome from being inevitable. It’s more like an Achilles leg. Or in this case, Achilles arm.

Stop if you’ve heard this one before …

Defense and special teams are going to keep Iowa in contention for the West title through the end of the season.

The Hawkeyes were 16th nationally in total defense last season and 13th in scoring defense. It’s reasonable to believe they can move up the rankings in both categories.

This is a veteran defense from front to back.

No player is more significant than Jack Campbell, the preseason Big Ten defensive player of the year. At the very least, the second team all-American is Iowa’s best linebacker since Chad Greenway. He might be the best since Pro Football Hall of Famer Andre Tippett.

Big Ten defensive back of the year Riley Moss is back at corner. So is Jermari Harris, the former No. 3 corner who started for Moss when he missed 3 games last season. However, corner Matt Hankins, safety Jack Koerner and nickel Dane Belton leave behind large voids.

Up front, second team all-B1G defensive end Kyle VanValkenburg’s 9.5 TFL are gone, but 7 of the top 8 linemen are back. That includes Lukas Van Ness and Joe Evans, each of whom had 7 sacks last season.

And with punter Tory Taylor back, Kirk Ferentz’s team will frequently put its ravenous defense in ideal field position to induce pressure.

How will the Hawks navigate the East?

If teams were weighed merely by roster rather than schedule, Iowa would be the favorite to repeat its division title. Alas, that’s not how this works.

The Hawks drew the short end of the stick in some regards, getting matched with both Ohio State and Michigan in East crossover games. The Buckeyes and Wolverines are both in the preseason top 10, and neither seems likely to slip from that perch before November.

The good news is that Iowa gets Michigan at home on Oct. 1. But Kinnick Stadium alone isn’t going to be enough to bridge the 39-point gap the Wolverines exposed last December.

Iowa must be better offensively to have a chance.

Brian Ferentz’s offense will …

Make or break what Iowa is capable of doing this season.

Kirk Ferentz’s solution for getting more out of Iowa’s passing game wasn’t exactly met with widespread acclaim across the Hawkeye State.

Son Brian, who seemed closer to the problem than the solution, had the role of quarterbacks coach added to his offensive coordinator duties this offseason.

Last year, Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla were the worst of both worlds — not explosive and mostly inaccurate. Iowa was 114th nationally in Yards Per Attempt and 113th in completion percentage. The Hawkeyes were 97th in passing plays of at least 20 yards.

The loss of 1,000-yard rusher Tyler Goodson to the NFL Draft underscores the need for Iowa to get something going through the air.

Between tight end Sam LaPorta and receivers Keagan Johnson, Nico Ragaini and Arland Bruce IV, Petras (or Padilla) will have some solid targets to work with. But there will also be two fewer targets than hoped for, as both Tyrone Tracy and Charlie Jones jumped to Purdue’s more receiver-friendly offense via the transfer portal.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. South Dakota State (W)

Give Kirk Ferentz credit, I guess. When it comes to scheduling FCS opponents, he doesn’t dodge the best. Iowa barely beat Northern Iowa in 2009 and lost to North Dakota State in 2016. This year South Dakota State is No. 2 in the FCS preseason poll. It’ll take a big fourth-quarter play from Moss or Campbell to save the day.

Week 2: vs. Iowa State (W)

If Matt Campbell couldn’t beat the Hawkeyes last year, I don’t know that it’s ever going to happen. The Cyclones lost a ton of talent. Make it 7 straight CyHawks for Iowa.

Week 3: vs. Nevada (W)

The Wolf Pack have a first-year head coach and just 2 starters returning on offense. It’ll be ugly. But Hawks fans will be intrigued by their first look at third-string QB Joe Labas.

Week 4: at Rutgers (W)

In 2004, Iowa beat Penn State 6-4. A repeat of that generational performance is unlikely to ever happen again — but these feel like the right combatants to potentially recreate the magic.

Both teams are offensively challenged. Iowa has a considerable defensive edge, but the Scarlet Knights are the only Big Ten team potentially better than the Hawkeyes on special teams.

Whatever the final score may be, it will feel like Iowa won a baseball game.

Week 5: vs. Michigan (L)

Iowa will make up some of, but not all of, that 39-point gap we witnessed in December. But the Wolverines will have the rare offense capable of putting up 30 or more against the Hawkeyes this season.

Week 6: at Illinois (W)

This game feels incredibly dangerous. The Fighting Illini are in an ideal spot to play spoiler, wedged between Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule. Illinois coach and former Hawkeyes player Bret Bielema missed last year’s game with COVID, but the Illini still hung tough in Iowa City. Winning the turnover battle gives Iowa a close win.

Week 7: Bye

Week 8: at Ohio State (L)

Unfortunately, Ohio State is also coming off of an open week. So though Phil Parker’s defense will frustrate the Buckeyes powerful offense like few others, look for Ohio State’s defense to deliver its signature performance of the season. Brian Ferentz won’t have enough wrinkles.

Week 9: vs. Northwestern (W)

This one is never a guarantee. Pat Fitzgerald has a 9-7 head-to-head record against Kirk Ferentz. But Northwestern’s offense is so bad that a path to victory feels impossible for the Wildcats to come by.

Week 10: at Purdue (L)

Former Hawks Tyrone Tracy and Charlie Jones reprise David Bell’s old role as Purdue pass catchers who haunt the Hawkeyes.

Week 11: vs. Wisconsin (W)

In an elite defensive battle, it’s Iowa that has the advantage. Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz managed to avoid turning it over against the Hawkeyes last season, but it’s hard to see that history repeating itself.

Week 12: at Minnesota (L)

The Golden Gophers gained more yards against the Hawks last season than any teams but Purdue and Michigan. This time, they cut out the miscues that cost them in Iowa City. Floyd of Rosedale heads north for the first time in 8 years.

Week 13: vs. Nebraska (W)

Tired: Black Friday kicking off the Christmas shopping season.

Wired: Black Friday kicking off another disappointing Nebraska offseason.

2022 Projection: 8-4 (5-4), 4th in B1G West

#Hawkeyes

The Big Ten West is constantly teetering on the brink of madness. And in what is likely to be the division’s penultimate season, the Crystal Ball foresees the wackiest outcome of them all: a 4-way tie for first place.

Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa and Minnesota will all finish 5-4 in the B1G, with Nebraska tailing at 4-5 after dropping the season finale to the Hawkeyes.

Based on the Big Ten tiebreaking procedure, the division champion is then determined by the team with the best record within the pool of tied teams.

  • Wisconsin (2-1): W vs. Purdue, W vs. Minnesota, L vs. Iowa
  • Purdue (2-1): W vs. Iowa, W vs. Minnesota, L vs. Wisconsin
  • Minnesota (1-2): W vs. Iowa, L vs. Purdue, L vs. Wisconsin
  • Iowa (1-2): W vs. Wisconsin, L vs. Purdue, L vs. Minnesota

Once you’ve done all that, it comes down to the head-to-head matchup between Wisconsin and Purdue. The Badgers have the edge there, and with that comes an appearance in the Big Ten championship game.

Though this would be a frustrating outcome for Iowa fans, it might beat the alternative — a week of national media talking about how Iowa isn’t good enough to compete with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game followed by the Buckeyes proving it on the field.

Iowa is likely to be the best defense in the B1G this season, but there isn’t much reason to believe the offense will suddenly start carrying its weight.