Tradition Crystal Ball: Predicting every Iowa football game in 2024

Editor’s note: Saturday Tradition’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Iowa. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 18-team B1G.

Previously: Illinois | Indiana

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Welcome to another day in Tradition’s Crystal Ball series! Throughout the series, we will be predicting every game on the Big Ten schedule this fall, bringing us to Iowa’s 2024 outlook.

The Hawkeyes went 10-4 and won the final B1G West title a season ago. However, there’s no denying the need to address another horrific offensive performance from offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz.

To address the offense, Iowa finally parted ways with the embattled OC and hired Tim Lester to lead the offense — and develop quarterback Cade McNamara.

The good news is McNamara has been cleared to resume football activities, but that alone does not remove concerns for his performance. He has missed the better part of 2 seasons to injury and is expected to be leaned on as the leader of the offense.

The other good news is Iowa’s defense should be equipped to handle most teams they will face this fall. Any marginal improvement on offense will go a long way in Iowa City with a deep and veteran defense leading the program.

As it relates to the B1G Championship picture, Iowa faces an added layer of struggles to get to Indianapolis. Divisions are no longer in play, so the Hawkeyes must finish 1st or 2nd in the standings to play for a title. That is especially challenging in a league that now includes Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Oregon with 18 total teams in play.

Without further ado, let’s get to the Crystal Ball.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Illinois State (W)

Iowa opens the season against Illinois State, an FCS program that went 6-5 a season ago. There’s not much to break down here, other than pointing out there will be a meltdown of nuclear proportions if the Hawkeyes somehow fall flat in the opener.

Week 2: vs. Iowa State (W)

Iowa has dominated the Cy-Hawk series with a 47-23 overall record and an 8-3 record in the past 11. However, it’s an odd distinction that Iowa’s last 3 losses to its in-state rival came at home. Two featured Iowa failing to reach double digits in points. FanDuel already has Iowa as a 2.5-point favorite, so any offensive pulse at all should give the Hawkeyes the win against the Cyclones. Warranted or not, I have some optimism in the offense this season, especially against an Iowa State program that isn’t blowing anyone away these days.

Week 3: vs. Troy (W)

Troy was not your run-of-the-mill Sun Belt program the last 2 seasons, going 23-5 overall under head coach Jon Sumrall. However, Sumrall is now at Tulane, and it’s likely the Trojans experience a step back during Gerad Parker’s first season. Either way, it’s set up nicely for Iowa to finish off an undefeated nonconference slate this year.

Week 4: at Minnesota (W)

Iowa’s first road trip will be a dandy with the Hawkeyes heading to Minnesota to try and take back Floyd of Rosedale. Customarily played in October or November, this year will be the earliest meeting between the rivals since they played on Sept. 28, 2013. Everyone remembers the controversy involved at the end of last year’s 12-10 loss to Minnesota, and the Hawkeyes have enough returning pieces to get a bit of revenge over the Gophers. Even if it will be a particularly volatile environment on the road this year.

Week 5: BYE

Week 6: at Ohio State (L)

Welcome to life without divisions. These teams have only met 1 time since the 2017 season — a 54-10 OSU blowout in 2022. Even for the most optimistic outlooks for the Iowa offense, it’s hard to envision the Hawkeyes pulling off a stunner against the Buckeyes. Ohio State remains one of the top national championship contenders in the country and should possess enough firepower on either side of the ball to handle Iowa.

Week 7: vs. Washington (W)

Washington will be the first B1G newcomer experience Kinnick Stadium. Part of me wishes this game came in mid-to-late November (and here’s hoping there is a possibility for a primetime kickoff), but I don’t think timing of the matchup impacts the outcome. The Huskies are in their first season without Kalen DeBoer, and Iowa City will likely be in peak form for Washington’s first visit as a conference opponent.

Week 8: at Michigan State (W)

Michigan State had a great shot at upsetting Iowa last season before some late-game heroics courtesy of Cooper DeJean. I think the Spartans will be much better immediately under Jonathan Smith, but I don’t think they’ll be able to handle Iowa’s deep and veteran defense. Look for the Hawkeyes to get after QB Aidan Chiles throughout this one.

Week 9: vs. Northwestern (W)

Iowa seemingly outperformed its points per game numbers in 2023 with 10 wins while finishing 132nd in the country in points per game, but Northwestern’s performance was even more alarming in terms of predicting future results. The Wildcats gave up slightly more points than they scored while finishing 8-5. That means some regression is probably in store, and Iowa gets this game at home.

Week 10: vs. Wisconsin (L)

Wisconsin did not experience the kind of initial season the Badgers had hoped for under Luke Fickell. However, the program grabbed some key transfers at positions of need, including quarterback Tyler Van Dyke from Miami who will be leaned on to unlock Phil Longo’s offense. The Heartland Trophy series is also one of the most evenly matched in the history of college football, and Iowa has won 3 of the past 4. Going by the numbers, it feels like the Badgers are due, even if this matchup is at Kinnick.

Week 11: at UCLA (W)

Iowa’s first West Coast road trip against a B1G opponent features UCLA, and that’s a good sign for 2024. The Bruins will be in their first season post Chip Kelly’s departure, and I do not expect the program to have enough firepower on either side of the ball to hang with the top-tier teams in the B1G. Even if the offense somehow sputters out west, the defense should travel and keep the Bruins in check.

Week 12: BYE

Week 13: at Maryland (W)

Maryland and Iowa have met just 4 times, with the Hawkeyes winning 3 of them. Mike Locksley has been the Terps’ head coach for 2 of those games, though one came in 2015 during his interim tenure leading the program. Without Taulia Tagovailoa, even this late in the season, I expect Maryland to need a bit of time to find its footing on offense. That’s the kind of matchup Phil Parker’s defense can feast on.

Week 14: vs. Nebraska (W)

Iowa and Nebraska are searching for much-improved offenses this season, and I think both will look markedly better than their 2023 numbers. However, one thing sets these them apart at this juncture: The Hawkeyes have shown time and again they know how to win close games, while the Huskers are still trying to find their way. Oh, Iowa has also dominated this head-to-head series recently, winning 9 of the past 11.

2024 Projection: 10-2 (7-2)

Sorry, college football fans outside of Iowa City. Anyone looking forward to the untimely demise of Kirk Ferentz’s program will be left waiting for at least another season when December rolls around. A new OC and a very manageable B1G schedule should get Iowa back to double-digit wins and keep them in the Playoff discussion.

Unfortunately for Iowa, the divisional format no longer exists, meaning the death of the B1G West. A 7-2 league record is unlikely enough to reach Indianapolis, which is likely why Iowa has 6th-best Big Ten Championship odds entering the season.

A 10-win team could be in consideration for the 12-team College Football Playoff, but a portfolio with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State will likely leave the Hawkeyes on the outside looking in.