Caitlin Clark is once again nearing history.

The Iowa guard has 3,617 points in her career and is now just 51 points away from passing former LSU legend Pete Maravich for the NCAA’s all-time scoring record in men’s or women’s basketball. Clark is currently on-pace to break the record during the regular season.

In anticipation of that record potentially being broken this week, FanDuel has listed odds on a number of props surrounding how and when she will pass Pistol Pete. Here’s a breakdown of those odds along with some analysis on each prop:

Method of Caitlin Clark’s Basket to Score her 3,668th Career Point

  • 3-point field goal: -140
  • Layup: +160
  • Free throw: +900
  • Other: +1500

Clark broke Kelsey Plum’s scoring record earlier this month with a deep 3-pointer — a datapoint that seems relevant as we try to sort through the best value pick for this prop. Clark even remarked after the game that, “you all knew I was going to shoot the logo 3 for the record.”

However, as likely as it may seem that Clark will try to repeat that feat as she goes for Pistol Pete’s record, the numbers are steering us in a different direction because of the heavy -140 price tag being offered by FanDuel.

Here’s a breakdown of how Clark has scored each of her 900 points so far this season (note: data is courtesy of CBBAnalytics.com): 

  • 3-pointers: 49.33%
  • At the rim (within 4.5 feet): 24.67%
  • Free throws: 18%
  • Other 2-pointers: 8%
 With those percentages, we can calculate an expected value for each wager given the price that FanDuel is offering. The following expected values are based on a bet of $100:
  • 3-point field goal: -$15.43
  • Layup: $-35.87
  • Free throw: $80
  • Other: $28

As you can see, going with Clark to break this record with a 3-pointer would be a minus-EV play given the current odds. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s tremendous value on Clark to beat Maravich’s record from the charity stripe. I especially like that play given that Clark went to the foul line 16 times when Iowa played Ohio State earlier this season — her second-highest total of any game in 2023-24. At +900, it’s clearly the best value on the board.

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In Which Quarter Will Caitlin Clark Score her 3,668th Career Point?

  • Feb. 28 at Minnesota, 4th quarter or overtime: +3600
  • March 3 vs. Ohio State, 1st quarter: +490
  • March 3 vs. Ohio State, 2nd quarter: +220
  • March 3 vs. Ohio State, 3rd quarter: +220
  • March 3 vs. Ohio State, 4th quarter: +380
  • To not break the record this season: +950

Clark is 51 points away from the record and her career high is 49 points. It’s certainly not impossible that she will do so in Iowa’s next game against Minnesota on Wednesday, but the vastly-more likely outcome is that Clark gets to 3,668 points in Iowa’s regular-season finale on March 3 vs. Ohio State.

There’s many variables that go into trying to predict what quarter Clark will break the record in. The first variable: how many points will she score against Minnesota on Wednesday night?

To simplify matters, let’s take a look at Clark’s averages in Big Ten games so far this season. She has scored 33.2 points per game in those 16 contests and is averaging a similar 32 points per contest in 8 Big Ten road games this year. That’s also roughly-in line with Clark’s career-average vs. Minnesota of 32.2 points per game. She’s scored 193 points in 6 contests against the Golden Gophers and has shot 50% from the 3-point line in those games. Here’s a breakdown of Clark’s scoring output vs. every Big Ten team in her career:

Minnesota’s defense is good — it ranks in the top 3 in the Big Ten in terms of defensive rating as it as allowed .895 points per possession so far this season. Clark has also struggled on the road of late and has shot under 45% from the field in each of her last 3 away games. Because of the strength of Minnesota’s defense and Clark’s recent road woes, let’s estimate that Clark will score 30 points against the Gophers, which would leave 21 points to go to break Maravich’s record.

With an estimated 21 points left to go, that would all-but eliminate the 1st quarter option from consideration. Clark has scored 20+ points in a quarter just once so far this year — ironically it was in the 1st quarter against Michigan earlier this month when she broke Plum’s record. Overall this season, Clark is averaging 10.3 points in 1st quarters against Big Ten opposition. Here’s the full quarter-by-quarter breakdown for Clark in league play:

 

Game 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter/OT
AVERAGE 10.3 7.6 9.4 5.9
Wisconsin 8 7 10 3
Rutgers 9 5 13 2
Purdue 11 5 6 4
Ohio State 13 7 6 19
Northwestern 10 8 9 8
Maryland 14 9 10 5
Nebraska 7 10 14 0
Indiana 13 7 2 2
Minnesota 12 5 16 2
Michigan State 13 6 8 13
Indiana 8 12 10 0
Wisconsin 7 12 13 0
Nebraska 3 7 15 13
Penn State 5 16 2 4
Michigan 23 5 10 11
Illinois 9 0 6 9

 

Clark’s (relative) lack of 4th-quarter scoring is a direct result of fewer minutes. Clark has often sat for large parts of the 4th quarter this season when the outcome of a game has already been decided. However, Clark often plays the entire 10-minute period to start off both halves — so it should be no surprise that her scoring output in those quarters are the highest.

If we give Clark credit for 10 points in the first quarter against Ohio State, that means she’d enter the 2nd quarter needing 11 more points to get the record. Since her 2nd-quarter average is 7.6 points, the most likely outcome in this scenario is that Clark would break Maravich’s all-time scoring record in the 3rd quarter against Ohio State on March 3. However, there are many variables — most notably Clark’s point total against Minnesota on Wednesday — that have not yet been accounted for. If Clark has a bigger game than expected against the Golden Gophers, that 1st-quarter number of +490 could definitely come into play.

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Method and Quarter of Caitlin Clark’s Basket to Score her 3,668th Career Point

This prop is a combination of the previous 2 exercises. Here’s a breakdown of the odds being offered by FanDuel:

  • 1st quarter | 3-point field goal | +1000
  • 1st quarter | Layup | +1500
  • 1st quarter | Free throw | +5500
  • 1st quarter | Other | +8500
  • 2nd quarter | 3-point field goal | +500
  • 2nd quarter | Layup | +800
  • 2nd quarter | Free throw | +3200
  • 2nd quarter | Other | +5000
  • 3rd quarter | 3-point field goal | +500
  • 3rd quarter | Layup | +800
  • 3rd quarter | Free throw | +3100
  • 3rd quarter | Other | +4900
  • 4th quarter | 3-point field goal | +700
  • 4th quarter | Layup | +1100
  • 4th quarter | Free throw | +4100
  • 4th quarter | Other | +6000

As we know from breaking down the method prop earlier on, the best-value for that side of this question is “free throw” or “other.” Barring an outlier night against Minnesota — in either direction — it seems most likely Clark will break the record in the 2nd or 3rd quarter against Ohio State on March 3.

RELATED: March Madness is right around the corner! Ohio residents, make sure you’re signed up with one of Saturday Tradition’s recommended Ohio betting apps so you don’t miss out on any action this march!