The Maryland Terrapins are one program still looking for a turnaround as we hit the 2021 season.

In two seasons under head coach Mike Locksley, Maryland is just 5-12. The last bowl game for the Terrapins came all the back in 2016, and it was 2014 the last time Maryland finished the year with a winning record.

Now entering Year 3, Locksley and company remain confident that a turnaround is possible. Taulia Tagovailoa returns at quarterback, along with a host of talented receivers and what should be an improved defense. Unfortunately, ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts an uphill battle this season.

Here are the full projections in terms of win probability:

  • Sept. 4: vs West Virginia – 42.2% (L)
  • Sept. 11: vs Howard – 99.7% (W)
  • Sept. 17: at Illinois – 56.4% (W)
  • Sept. 25: vs Kent State – 83.9% (W)
  • Oct. 1: vs Iowa – 36.0% (L)
  • Oct. 9: at Ohio State – 5.1% (L)
  • Oct. 23: at Minnesota – 37.1% (L)
  • Oct. 30: vs Indiana – 37.8% (L)
  • Nov. 6: vs Penn State – 24.9% (L)
  • Nov. 13: at Michigan State – 31.3% (L)
  • Nov. 20: vs Michigan – 38.6% (L)
  • Nov. 27: at Rutgers – 51.4% (W)

Traditionally speaking, those win probabilities project Maryland at a 4-8 record. However, the FPI formula implemented works out to an overall record of 5.4-6.6.

Can the Terrapins flip the script in just a couple of games and get to bowl eligibility? Getting to six wins and a bowl would be a nice building block for Locksley heading into Year 4.