ESPN's FPI predicts outcome of every game on Michigan's 2024 schedule

ESPN’s Football Power Index is predicting the 2024 college football season with win probabilities for every game this season. One team with a particularly interesting projection is Michigan, the reigning national champions but a program with plenty of question marks on the roster.

The biggest question marks by far involve the turnover within the coaching staff and the search for a new quarterback. Jim Harbaugh, the ultimate Michigan Man who returned to Ann Arbor and rebuilt the Wolverines, is back in the NFL while star QB JJ McCarthy is also in the NFL though unfortunately sidelined for his rookie season.

In Harbaugh’s place, Sherrone Moore steps in to lead Michigan. While he was always the logical choice to succeed Harbaugh, Moore must adjust to life with a much different group of assistants than the one that helped guide the Wolverines to a title.

Defensively, Michigan looks to have another elite unit though one that is not quite as deep as the loaded defense of 2023. The defense will be particularly looked upon to keep the Wolverines in their toughest games of the season while adjusting to a new QB.

As for the FPI, Michigan is given a projected record of just 8.3-3.9. That would be a disappointing finish, to say the least, but one that is more realistic than most want to admit.

Along with the tough B1G games throughout, the Wolverines get a visit from expected national title contender Texas in the nonconference schedule. That game against the Longhorns is Michigan’s 3rd-toughest game of the season per FPI’s win probabilities, trailing only a road trip to Ohio State and a visit from Oregon.

Michigan is 4th in the latest Big Ten Championship odds entering the season, and interested fans can take advantage of the latest odds via DraftKings. As for the FPI win probabilities, the Wolverines will be heavy underdogs in 3 games while falling below a 70% win probability in 2 other games.

Here is what the FPI sees ahead:

Aug. 31: vs. Fresno State — 89.2%
Sept. 7: vs. Texas — 34.9%
Sept. 14: vs. Arkansas State — 92.3%
Sept. 21: vs. USC — 65.7%
Sept. 28: vs. Minnesota — 84.4%
Oct. 5: at Washington — 60.7%
Oct. 19: at Illinois — 79.6%
Oct. 26: at Michigan State — 86.7%
Nov. 2: vs. Oregon — 34.5%
Nov. 9: at Indiana — 83.1%
Nov. 23: vs. Northwestern — 85.4%
Nov. 30: at Ohio State — 25.8%